India-pendence Day

Jonathan India (CIN): 3-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.

The theme for this edition is ’slumping players who mashed tonight,’ especially those who play the keystone. India is our prime example. Hitting just .224 through the end of May, India went nuts in June with a .380 batting average and .454 OBP, which earned him a leadoff spot in the lineup. He’d follow that up with a .207 BA in July, though, and a .163 thus far in August. So to this point, he’s basically been worth rostering for about a month.

The Reds had a chance to trade India when he was still hot and chose not to–his presence in the clubhouse is too valuable. They’re probably glad they didn’t as he hit his 10th and 11th homers in a blowout to sweep the Cardinals and put the Reds within a game of .500 and into second place in the NL Central.

With Matt McLain’s return pushed back (possibly indefinitely), India could hold down the 2B job for the remainder of the season, and he’s remained at the top of the lineup despite a prolonged cold spell. That speaks to managerial confidence. He’ll likely finish with a 15/15 season so he won’t exactly flood the counting stats, but people forget this is a former Rookie of the Year with a tremendous eye at the plate, an 81st-percentile xwOBA, and plays in GABP. See if this performance kicks off another heater, and pull India back on your team especially if you’re in an OBP or points league.

 

Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday:

Brice Turang (MIL): 1-1, 3B, R, RBI, BB, SB.

Turang had a better game in real life than on paper–in the bottom of the fourth he laced a double down the left field line but the runner ahead of him missed second base. So instead of the extra-base hit Turang gets a fielder’s choice out. Baseball.

Like India, Turang has struggled after a great June, hitting just .166 in his last 35 games. His steals have come down with it though he’s still third in the National League with 34. Turang’s batter metrics are substandard overall (third-percentile Bat Speed, a 2.9% barrel rate) but he had a .280+ batting average through June thanks to the speed. Perhaps the most important at-bat of his night was his walk–when he was hitting he also was getting free passes at an 8-10% rate. That dropped to 3% during his slump, meaning he’d lost his patience and was swinging wildly.

 

Jake Cronenworth (SDP): 1-3, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB.

Not a bad line for Cronenworth, who’s been hitting at replacement-level since June. Cronie had something of a breakout in 2022 but was disappointing last year with just 10 homers in 522 plate appearances and a .229 average.

He came out scorching this season and was looking like a top-five second baseman (he’s also eligible at first but you shouldn’t be playing him there), and though he regressed recently he’s now up to 15 homers and 70 RBI, good for 16th in the National League. He’s barreling balls at twice the pace last year (8.6% compared to 4.4) and even with the loss of Juan Soto the lineup is improved this season so you can expect good counting stats down the stretch.

 

Andrés Giménez (CLE): 3-4, 2B, 3 RBI, SB.

Giménez had a solid game last night against the Cubs, capping off a three-hit effort with a 99.9 mph double that cleared the bases and added a steal. But here’s why we’re not buying into this second baseman just yet. Looking like a points league stud a few years ago, the Guardians’ lefty might spray the ball all over the field but he is making the worst contact of his career. And he’s in the bottom 10% in a ton of metrics–barrel rate, chase rate, and walk rate, just to name a few. His average exit velocity might be slightly better than a season ago but it was 84.8 mph then, lowest 1% in the league. He might get to 25 steals this year but that’s about all you’re getting.

 

Michael Harris II (ATL): 1-5, HR, R, 5 RBI.

Welcome back, Money Mike! Sidelined with a bad hammy since mid-June, Harris returned in style in San Fran, parking a Robbie Ray fastball into McCovey Cove for a grand slam. This season has been a struggle for Harris, who was a consensus third-round pick in fantasy this year thanks to his .290+ batting average his first two seasons and the benefit of being in the Braves lineup. But even before his injury, his peripherals were off (second-percentile chase rate, big drop in barrels).

Keep in mind, though, he’s only 23 and was probably pressing. If he keeps hitting he’ll likely jump to the top of the order (Jorge Soler and Jared Kelenic aren’t ideal in that slot) where runs will come in bunches now that Austin Riley and Matt Olson are producing.

 

Eugenio Suárez (ARI): 3-4, 2 2B, HR, R, 5 RBI.

Suárez has a repeatable pattern almost every season. It’s 1) be terrible the first half, and 2) be incredible the second half. If you wait until July to pick him up, you’ll reap some nice rewards. Case in point, in June he was sitting at .196/.279/.591 with just six homers on the year. Then he went wild in July with 10 bangers, 27 RBI and 21 runs, and his splits were .333/.398/1.131. He’s slowed a bit in August but tonight’s three-XBH performance included a 107.6 mph grand slam and two doubles. It’s been a few years since Suarez hit 49 homers, but he’s still got immense power and this year the K’s have come down a bit.   

 

Adolis García (TEX): 3-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.

It’s been a nightmare season for both García and the Rangers, who going into this one were 10 games under .500. But they’d get into a slugfest at Fenway with García putting two balls over the Green Monster. Adolis has career lows in batting average and OPS this season (.222 and .691) and is only in the fifth percentile in whiff rate, which translates to missing over a third of the balls he’s swinging at. García was having a decent season through April, batting .301 with six home runs, but he’s hit .165, .198, and .174 in the months since.

But now? August is showing signs of life, as El Bombi is making better decisions and contact– do those and the power comes with it. The Rangers won’t be playing for much in August and September, but García is looking like he has something to prove.

 

 

David Peralta (SDP): 2-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.

A free agent after the Cubs released him earlier this season, Peralta signed a minor league deal with San Diego and played a handful of games with the El Paso Chihuahuas. Primarily a bench bat that sometimes saw action against righties, Peralta improved a little bit each month and the playing time has come with it – this was his sixth straight start. Since the All-Star Break, the 36-year-old veteran is hitting .295 with five homers and a dozen RBI. The Padres have won 10 of 11 and their lineup is scorching top to bottom. Peralta might have just 12 plate appearances against lefties this year, but he’s got a .417 OBP against them so there might be more opportunities there.

 

Austin Wells (NYY): 3-5, HR, R, 3 RBI.

It can’t be bad hitting behind Aaron Judge in the lineup. With Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton injured, Wells has been batting fourth or fifth in the Yankees lineup since the All-Star break and playing nearly every day. Hitting .254, he’s got a decent batting average for a catcher and some decent pop–over a full season he could hit 20 homers. His ninth round-tripper of the season was a 110.2 mph laser beam that would easily clear the wall in 30/30 parks. He’s also showing great patience for a 24-year-old, walking 12.4% of the time. If your catcher is slumping (any Logan O’Hoppe owners?) Wells is a great pickup.

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR): 3-5, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI.

Vladdy is playing out of his mind right now and his .206 average as of April 26th is a forgotten memory.

So far in the second half he’s batting .457 with 11 home runs (10 in his last 15 games!) and slashing .323/.393/.950 for the season. Judge and Witt might be 1-2 in the AL MVP battle, but Guerrero will make the conversation if he keeps it up. The four-category superstar now leads the majors in hard-contact rate and is top 10 in most other StatCast metrics. Feast on the sea of red below, just skip past the steals category.