Free Willi
Willi Castro (MIN): 2-3, 2B, 2 R, RBI, BB.
It looks like the Twins have found their leadoff hitter, at least against righties. After spending much of the season bouncing up and down the bottom half of the lineup, the Twins started throwing Castro at the top of the sheet every couple of days, and then more often as Edouard Julien fizzled (though Julien went 4-for-5 last night). Castro’s now at 182 plate appearances as the first batter in the box and is hitting .297 in that slow with 17 extra-base hits and a .811 OPS. He might not be a league winner but he’s hitting consistently atop the most underrated lineup in baseball.
Castro’s advanced metrics aren’t great–middling, really–and he isn’t exactly doing anything different than last year. But that’s really when his breakout started, he just wasn’t an everyday player so few picked up on it. Before that, he had a first-percentile (as in really bad) average exit velocity, but that’s now up almost three mph. In 2022 his walk rate was just 3.8%, that’s doubled to 7.7% (he also has 15 HBPs, including one in this game).
Castro had 33 steals last year, which was surprising given his 66th-percentile sprint speed. But it was a season where everyone was running and he pinch-ran a few times in key situations. He’s only up to 12 this season, and considering he’s been caught 40% of the time this might be less a part of his game going forward.
But his main benefit, other than his newly-consistent role hitting in front of Royce Lewis and others, is his versatility. He’s played ten or more games at 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and CF. He’s also DH’ed once and made two appearances as a reliever (though we wouldn’t suggest picking him up as a pitcher). He’s truly free to play anywhere on the field.
In categories leagues, Castro is a plus in Runs and Batting Average and should chip in a couple of homers and steals the rest of the way. But his value lies more in points leagues where he’s racking up at-bats and getting on base. If there’s a hole anywhere in your lineup, Castro could probably fill it.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday
Juan Soto (NYY): 2-2, 2B, HR, 2 R, 5 RBI, BB.
The Yankees must be wondering what it will take to extend their new superstar, but the price tag keeps going up. Soto is finally showing that he’s a generational player and would be the league MVP if the guy hitting behind him wasn’t about to hit 60-65 homers and Bobby Witt Jr. wasn’t hitting .350/30/30. Soto is in the 99th or 100th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, chase rate, walk rate, and the list goes on. He’s becoming this generation’s Barry Bonds.
Austin Martin (MIN): 2-3, 2 2B, 2 R, 3 RBI.
On the other side of the lineup from Castro is a 25-year-old rookie who’s starting to turn some heads. Martin’s reached base five times in the last two games and is showing both solid contact and good plate discipline. He’s not worth an add just yet but worth keeping an eye on. The Twins have shuffled a lot of players in and out of the outfield due to injury (Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff, among others) and young guys are making the most of their opportunity.
Luis Robert Jr. (CHW): 2-3, 2B, 2 R, BB, 2 SB.
It’s been a well-documented dismal season for Robert (and the team he plays for), but this could be the spark of a turnaround. Drafted regularly in the third round this year after going 38-20 last season, Robert nabbed his 19th and 20th steals last night, reaching last year’s mark in half the plate appearances. He’s also 10-for-26 in his last six games with a pair of home runs. I’m not saying it will happen, but don’t be surprised if he fetches top-50 value the rest of the way.
Ernie Clement (TOR): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI, BB.
If you were asked which player had the second-lowest strikeout rate in baseball behind Luis Arraez, chances are you wouldn’t say Ernie Clement. But his 7.8% K-rate is no fluke–he had a 7.7% rate last year (though in not enough at-bats to qualify). What’s surprising, then, is his walk rate is as bad as his K-rate is good–it actually went up .3% with his walk last night to 2.8%. So Clement seems to jump on any pitch in the zone and manages to hit it somewhere, and last night this meant a couple of extra-base hits, including a three-run homer off Nick Martinez that went 396 feet. He could be a 15/15 guy next year.
Luis García Jr. (WSN): 1-3, HR, R, 3 RBI.
Is García Jr. quietly having the best season on the Nationals? Well, that honor might still belong to CJ Abrams but their second baseman is gaining. García’s become a categories league surprise with 15 homers and 19 steals, and is a plus in batting average now hitting .294. He’s also in the 83rd percentile in xSLG, a wild 76-point improvement from a year ago (and really from his whole career). He looks like a different player, hitting .333 since the All-Star break with seven steals. If he’s somehow available on your wire, grab him.
George Springer (TOR): 1-2, HR, R, RBI, BB.
Springer had a steep decline in his advanced metrics in the first few months of the season, making weak contact and losing his spot as Toronto’s leadoff bat. A player who had a Top-5% Max EV scuffled to a sub-.600 OPS and a career-low batting average. Well, he’s back in his usual role and though he’s only hitting .194 in August this is his third home run in two nights, and his xBA is actually above average. Springer’s lead-off homer was his 17th of the year, and though in his age-34 season, he’s not running like he used to he’s still got 13 steals. Springer still might have some gas left in the tank.
Mark Vientos (NYM): 2-4, HR, R, RBI.
This was supposed to be Brett Baty’s year, but Vientos has grabbed the Mets’ third base job and shows no signs of letting it go. He’s now up to 20 homers on the season in just 314 plate appearances and looks like this season’s Triston Casas, with a .280 batting average to accompany the power. Only 24, Vientos has a 95th-percentile barrel rate and a 94th-percentile wOBA. The Mets are playing good baseball and he’s a big reason why. He could crack the Top 100 next year and be a huge sleeper.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN): 3-4, HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, BB, SB.
Elly became just the fifth player in league history to go 20-60 as he’d collect both a sock and a shoe in a Reds come-from-behind blowout (the offense kicked in a few minutes after Joey Votto’s retirement announcement). Elly’s vying for first-round status next season and though he’s prone to mini-slumps (just 3-for-29 his last seven games) he usually bounces back with a monster effort that evens it all out. This was one of those times. 25-75 is not outside the realm of possibility, and if he can just bring down the swing-and-miss (and a few baserunning gaffes) a little bit he’s an all-everything player.
Nolan Arenado (STL): 3-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI, BB.
You knew if you drafted Arenado this year you were getting a player slightly past his prime, but you probably didn’t expect this. Nolan’s age-32 season last year saw a drop in all his metrics, including a 64-point drop in slugging and 43 in OBP. That trend continued again this year and included a nearly 3 mph decline in average exit velocity.
But he got a hold of one last night at the best possible time. With the bases loaded in the bottom of the tenth, Arenado laced a ball down the line for a walkoff grand slam, capping a game where he reached base four times. Arenado isn’t top 10 in his position anymore–he might not even get to 20 home runs–but still has some magic left.
Noelvi Marte (CIN): 2-4, HR, 2 R, RBI, SB.
Before he landed on the PED list and was suspended for half a season, Marte was a popular breakout candidate among industry experts. He was a top prospect hitting the ball extremely hard and was a plus for both average and power. This year he’s been a shell of this former promise, and whether it’s the performance enhancers or something more mental is difficult to say. Marte looked lost at the plate even during his minor league rehab with a .321 OPS in 12 games. From last year to this one, his K-rate has jumped from a solid 20.3% to 31.3% and his walk rate plummeted to 2.5% from 6.5%. His Average EV is down more than 5 mph and his OPS is down nearly 270 points.
So why am I a believer? Well, he’s quietly improving a little bit each month and working his way back into an everyday role. Last night he was one of FOUR Reds with a homer and a steal, and really there’s nowhere to go but up.