Roamin’ Holliday

Jackson Holliday (BAL): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.

Can it be? Is it really here? After a well-documented, abysmal start–we don’t need to rehash the numbers–baseball’s ace prospect is reaching his potential. Only seven major league players have homered in three straight games at an age younger than Holliday: the most recent three are Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr., and Juan Soto. That’s hefty company.

His biggest improvement might just be a change in approach on 0-2 counts, which is where his homer came from in this one. He’s shortening up, not trying to yank the ball, and putting it in play. Sometimes the ball goes over the fence regardless, and that’s exactly what happened here.

Worth noting, Holliday was subbed for a pinch-hitter on Tuesday night with the bases loaded and a lefty on the bump. He only has nine plate appearances against lefties so far, so it’s hard to read too much into the numbers, but he’s hitting .143 off them. Remember, though, he’s still just 20 years old and this was his 17th major league game–with the depth the Orioles have, he might still get benched in certain situations.

Holliday also has yet to attempt a steal, though he had eight in the minors this season and 24 across multiple levels in ’23. He has 90th-percentile sprint speed so that should become part of his game eventually, maybe once he starts hitting more singles and fewer home runs.

So what’s he looking like the rest of the way? He’ll probably stay sheltered in the bottom third of Baltimore’s lineup, but that’s not a bad place to be. With Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander having breakout years, and some new pieces added in the trade deadline, the O’s are stacked from top to bottom and he’ll be fine wherever he’s hitting.

 

Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday

Jackson Merrill (SDP): 4-6, 2 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI.

Another Rookie named Jackson was hyped this year as a contact hitter that could someday flirt with .300. But after tonight’s double-barrel (his second a game-tying shot off David Bednar in the ninth, and the Pads would eventually win in extras), he’s now up to 15 homers and 37 extra-base hits on the season. Merrill was having a pretty cold August–2-for-15 with a pair of doubles–but games like this turn a bad spell into a memory. He now leads all Rookies in RBI and is in the conversation as a top 100 player.

 

Kyle Schwarber (PHI): 4-4, 2B, 3 HR, 3 R, 7 RBI, BB.

It’s just turning into a monster season for Schwarber at this point, capped by this three-homer, seven-RBI performance. Everyone knew he would hit bombs–he hit 46 and 47 the last two years–but expected (with good reason) he would kill your batting average, hovering around .200. Well, with this 4-for-4 he’s now up to a more-than-respectable .261. He still might swing and miss a lot (9th-percentile whiff rate) but the league’s most unconventional leadoff hitter leads the National League in walks and just might finish the season with less than 200 strikeouts. His patience at the plate might be the difference:

 

 

Michael Busch (CHC): 2-3, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB.

After walloping five homers in five straight games in April, Busch was at the top of everyone’s pick-up list. But he only hit one other home run in the month, followed by just two in May, and two more in June. By then he’d become a drop as he doesn’t offer much besides the power (two SBs all season and that 31.2% strikeout rate doesn’t jive in points leagues). He’s regained his form in August, though, filling Christopher Morel’s role as Chicago’s all-or-nothing slugger. This month he’s hitting .292 with a 1.013 OPS and three homers, so he might be worth another ride.

 

Yordan Alvarez (HOU): 1-3, HR, R, RBI, 2 BB.

A borderline first-round pick at the start of the season, Alvarez has somewhat underwhelmed. Most of his metrics have dropped a bit from his 37-homer season in 2022, where his OPS was over 1.000 and he had a .306 batting average. Nagging injuries were likely a factor. He’s back at .300 now, and though the slugging is down from .613 to .536 this year, he’s still hitting the ball hard (96th-percentile bat speed, 98th-percentile xSLG). Look for elite numbers for both power and average the rest of the way.

 

Ketel Marte (ARI): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI, BB.

Put simply, Marte is having an MVP-caliber season. A breakout player all the way back in 2019, Marte’s career had been up and down with a few injury-marred seasons. He had a bounce-back year in 2023 with 25 homers and 82 RBI, as well as a .358 OBP. Well, he’s already surpassed that home run total with 29, is already at 80 RBI (had 80 last season in 150 games), and is basically playing at the level we expected Corbin Carroll to be (though he only has six steals). If you drafted Marte around pick 100 this year, I hope you’re winning your league.

 

Bobby Witt Jr. (KCR): 3-4, 2B, 2 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI.

Speaking of MVPs, Witt is giving Aaron Judge a run for his money. Judge might get to 60 homers this year, but Bobby Witt has become a five-category superstar and possibly the best all-around offensive player in the league. Between Ohtani, Judge, and Witt–who goes number one overall next year? I’d take Witt and not look back–amazingly there are still signs he’s yet to reach his full potential.

 

Austin Riley (ATL): 2-3, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB.

Hard to believe Riley had just three home runs through the end of May after hitting 33, 38, and 37 over the last three seasons. He won’t get to that level this year–in fact, he’ll be lucky to top 25–but he’s turned his season around with 13 homers since then. He seems to prefer batting fifth in the lineup, with a .333 batting average and 1.093 OPS. If he and Matt Olson can stay hot, the depleted Braves are still a contender and Riley’s back to being a top five Third Baseman.

 

Freddie Freeman (LAD): 2-4, R, 3 RBI.

Freddie, it’s good to have you back and mashing baseballs again. Freeman had a hit in each of his first two games after his time away from the team but appears to be settling in a groove. Mr. Consistency hasn’t had his best year at the plate–his XWOBACON is down 63 points from last year and he won’t come close to the 131 runs he scored–but he can still top 25/100/100.

 

Josh Bell (ARI): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.

What a difference a new team can make. Freed from the vast confines of Miami’s aquamarine stadium, this Bell went double-dong in Cleveland. Since being traded to Arizona the same day Christian Walker went to the IL with an oblique strain, Bell’s been on a heater embedded in the cleanup spot. He’s got four homers in six games with a 1.129 OPS. Will it last? Probably not. But sometimes going from a losing team to a winner lights a fire, and Bell’s cauldron is burning.

 

Eloy Jiménez (BAL): 2-4, 2B, 1 R, 2 RBI.

Here’s another player that’s got new life going from a bad team (and that’s an understatement) to a contender. Since joining the Orioles, Jimenez is 8-for-16 with two doubles and four RBI. That’s one more RBI than he had in the ALL OF JULY with the White Sox (in 76 plate appearances!). Simply put, it’s nice to be hitting with men on base and an exuberant crowd in the stands. He’s raised his batting average 17 points in just five games and the joy on his face was palpable after lining a two-run double to right. Grab him for a stint and hope he stays healthy.