Around the Hoerner

Nico Hoerner (CHC): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.

Nico Hoerner doesn’t barrel baseballs. Like, ever. His average EV is in the sixth percentile and his bat speed is in the eighth, but his barrel rate? First percentile. As in, 99 hitters out of 100 are better.

A ‘barrel’ is a combination of two statistics: exit velocity and launch angle. Basically, the hitter needs to hit the ball at a certain velocity (minimum 98 mph) and within a certain window of launch. If the ball is hit harder than 98, the window gets wider (if you hit a ball 115 mph or higher, pretty much everything is a barrel–at 98, it has to be between 26 and 30 degrees).

The result of a barrel is typically a BABIP of .500 or higher and a SLG of at least 1.500. The average barrel rate across the majors can vary year to year but it’s usually between 7-8%, with elite sluggers in the 12-15% range.

Hoerner? 1.2%. Or six barrels all season, in 570 at bats. And it’s not a fluke, either–last year it was 1.8%, about the same as his career mark.

So it was quite the shock when Hoerner smacked two home runs on Wednesday night since he’s only had five dingers all season and his last one came on August 9th.

The question is: Were they barrels? His first homer, in the top of the fourth inning against Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez, was 93.8 mph with a 35-degree launch angle. And his second, two innings later of José Ruiz, was 97.0 mph with the same 35-degrees.

So…no. They weren’t barrels. But they still went over the fence. And while Hoerner might not clear the yard very often, he’s still a great hitter–he’s got a .912 OPS in September and is 10th in the National League in doubles. And as bad as he might be at barreling, he’s in the 99th-percentile in whiff percentage and 98th in K-rate, leading to a .280 batting average or higher pretty much every year. And his max EV’s 110.1 mph, showing he can hit the ball hard when he wants to. I’d buy Hoerner as a Top-100 player next year even if he didn’t have a single barrel all season.

 

Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday:

José Ramírez (CLE): 3-4, 2B, 3B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.

Here’s another player where barrel rate isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Ramirez is closing in on the 40/40 club and is fourth in the American League in home runs. But his barrel rate hovers around league average at 8.1%.  His average EV is in the 51st percentile and his hard-hit % in the 43rd. Pretty meh all around. And yet? 76 extra-base hits and 115 RBI, including three more in this one. But if you’re wondering, he barreled the heck out of his homer at 106.1 with a 32-degree angle–it went 417 feet down the line and would have easily cleared the wall in all 30 parks.

 

Nick Castellanos (PHI): 3-4, 2B, HR, 3 R, RBI.

Our tour of lower-than-expected barrel rates continues with Castellanos, who had two XBH’s Wednesday and scored three times, helping Philly clinch home-field advantage in the NLDS. Castellanos should clear 90 RBI this season and has 233 career homers, but his barrel rate’s in the 47th percentile and his hard-hit percentage is in the 35th. He’s slugging a little worse than last year but he’s also cut his K-rate by 6.5% (he was 10th in the NL in K’s last year; has a league-average K-rate in ’24). And yes, he barreled his homer: 104.8 mph, 25 degrees, and would’ve been out in every park but Oracle.

 

Trea Turner (PHI): 2-5, 2B, HR, R, RBI.

Turner’s going on four straight seasons with more than 20 homers, which is a bit surprising given his 7% career barrel rate (6.6% this year, in the 38th percentile). The five-tool player is hitting .294 despite mediocre metrics in average EV, bat speed, and sweet-spot %. That said, he got a hold of one in the first inning off Javier Assad: 110.2 mph off the bat, 20-degree launch angle.

 

Spencer Torkelson (DET): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.

OK, everyone so far’s been a good-to-great contact hitter despite a lousy barrel rate, but here’s where a dip in barrels can become a problem. Tork’s barrel % last year was 14.1%, which is phenomenal (90th percentile). But this year? 6.5%, for a 36th percentile. Torkelson had huge expectations going into this season but his lack of hard-hit balls resulted in a stint in the minors. His expected batting average this season is just .209. That said, he’s much improved in this second half: 13 XBH’s in his last 124 at-bats and a .786 OPS. There’s still hope for this former number-one draft pick, but he needs to make hard contact to succeed.

 

Lenyn Sosa (CHW): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI.

The ChiSox have a two-game winning streak and Sosa scored half the team’s runs. Sosa’s barrel rate is 5.8% (27th percentile) but he’s optimized his launch angle in his third MLB season: his LA Sweet-Spot percentage is in the 99th percentile at 41.9 percent. If he can improve on the plate discipline (3.2% walk rate) he could be somebody–at .279, his expected batting average is far higher than his actual (.248).

 

Wyatt Langford (TEX): 2-5, HR, R, 2 RBI, SB.

Everyone’s favorite sleeper pick after a torrid spring, Langford vaulted up draft boards only to have a .574 OPS at the end of May, missing time from injury to boot. Like the rest of the Rangers’ offense, it’s been a struggle. But he’s hitting .306 with a .985 OPS in September with six home runs and seven doubles and now looks like the future superstar we expected. Langford looks like the AL’s version of Corbin Carroll and could be a first-round pick in the near future.

He’s carrying a barrel rate of 9.4% in his rookie season, which is pretty decent, and all his other metrics are above average with one exception: unlike Sosa, his LA Sweet-Spot % is 17th-percentile. It’s a stat that can be improved with adjustment, and once he makes it he’ll be a stud.

 

Colton Cowser (BAL): 2-4, 2B, R, 3 RBI, SB.

So barrel rate’s a funny stat–less important for contact guys, more important for power guys. And solid hitters (or in José Ramírez’s case, MVP-level) can have mediocre barrel rates or less and do just fine. But if you’re selling out for power and striking out a lot, you’d better get into a few. Here’s where a player like Cowser is succeeding in his first full season: a 14% barrel rate (91st percentile) even though he strikes out 30% of the time. He didn’t have a homer in this one but hit two balls over 103 mph and he’s got three dingers in his last five games. He’s also batting cleanup the last lately so the run production could jump–Cowser might have too much hype to qualify as a sleeper next year but he could be a top-50 hitter in this environment.

 

Junior Caminero (TBR): 2-4, HR, R, RBI.

All right, one last masher. Caminero’s having a solid rookie season and should be an anchor in Tampa’s lineup for years to come.  In just 148 at-bats this year, Junior’s got a more-than-decent 11.9% barrel rate and his raw bat speed is off the charts at 77.3 mph (Aaron Judge’s is 77.2). Expect the barrels to only go up, along with every other stat. And his homer tonight? 109.1 mph, 21 degrees, out in every ballpark but the expansive Coors Field. If he can stay healthy all season, he’ll hit 30 bombs next year with upside for more. Think Yordan Alvarez (Junior).