With the possible exception, perhaps, of starting pitcher, outfield might be the deepest position for fantasy managers. The good news about that is that there are plenty of ways for fantasy managers to approach the position in drafts, regardless of whether the league starts three or five outfielders.
But while the position is deep, there are still a few players to avoid at their ADPs, where other players might make more sense or are more likely to live up to said ADP.
These are a few of the players to avoid drafting at their current ADPs.
*All ADP data via NFBC.
Brenton Doyle – 74.75 ADP*
With any early draft pick, you want not only the impact fantasy ceiling, upside, and production but also consistency with that production. It’s true of first-round picks and almost all players who you might draft with a top-30 overall pick, but it should be true of any player you consider selecting in the draft’s first 100 picks. Now obviously, ceiling, upside, and production vary a bit between a player who might go fifth overall versus one who might come off the board at 95th overall, but the need for consistent good production from that player remains.
Consistency might be the keyword for Brenton Doyle’s fantasy upside in 2025. Or, rather, a lack of consistency when comparing his home and road splits. Doyle is decidedly better at home than on the road.
Overall, Doyle hit .260 with a .317 on-base percentage in 603 plate appearances for the Colorado Rockies last year, providing the National League West club and fantasy managers alike with quality power (23 home runs) and stolen base production (he collected 30 SBs). Perhaps unsurprisingly, Doyle thrived at home, hitting .313 with an even .900 OPS at Coors Field. He also struggled mightily on the road.
If you took Doyle’s splits and compared them to other hitters’ season-long, overall OPS numbers among qualified hitters, his OPS at Coors Field would be the 10th-highest. His road OPS compared to all hitters’ season-long numbers? It would be the sixth lowest.
Realistically, he’s more of a hitter to consider a bit later on in the draft, not in the first 10 rounds of proceedings where there (ideally) should be less risk. While Doyle’s home production might well continue to be elite, you might not want to start him in your lineups when he’s playing on the road.
Randy Arozarena – 129.53 ADP*
Arozarena overcame his highest strikeout rate (26.1%) since his rookie season and a variety of quality of contact and plate discipline metrics that hovered either around league average or below league average to turn in some solid counting stats for the Seattle Mariners and fantasy managers alike last season.
The outfielder logged just a .324 xwOBA (58th percentile), a .375 xwOBAcon, a .385 xSLG (35th percentile), and an 8.3% barrel rate (54th percentile) while posting a 29.7% whiff rate (20th percentile). His 24.3% chase rate (77th percentile), 11.3% walk rate (88th percentile), and 43.5% hard-hit rate (68th percentile) were encouraging and the general lack of chasing pitches, as well as the walks, helped the 29-year-old’s on-base percentage from dipping too low.
Overall, Arozarena hit .219 with a .332 on-base percentage, 20 home runs, and 20 stolen bases in 648 plate appearances for the Mariners. It was his fourth straight season with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases.
The veteran should still see plenty of opportunity in Seattle on a team that hasn’t done too much from an external addition standpoint this winter. If he can reach 600 or more plate appearances for the fourth straight season, it’s fair to expect solid counting stats to follow. But, and this is the key, the swing and miss numbers could be a concern.
Arozarena has seen his whiff rate steadily rise in each of the last three seasons. It was 28.7% in 2022, 29.1% in 2023 and 29.7% last year. Perhaps unsurprisingly, his xBA numbers have been similarly unideal. During those three seasons, the veteran outfielder turned in xBA numbers of .234, .243 and .219 respectively. Most notably, his 2022 xBA (.234) and 2023 xBA (.243) were noticeably lower than his actual batting averages during those seasons (.263 and .254 respectively).
If the swing-and-miss trends continue, fantasy managers might be better off looking elsewhere at the point in the draft where Arozarena’s ADP is currently.
Ceddanne Rafaela – 175.33 ADP*
Ceddane Rafaela hit .246 with a .276 on-base percentage, 15 home runs, and 19 stolen bases in 571 plate appearances for the Boston Red Sox last season. All of that was generally good from a fantasy perspective, especially considering Rafaela saw time in the outfield, at shortstop, and at second base, finishing the year with fantasy eligibility at all three positions. Again, all generally good fantasy-wise.
What’s not so good, or rather not ideal for Rafaela’s fantasy prospects heading into 2025 is that his surface-level production looks a bit unsustainable. The 24-year-old finished the year with a .273 xwOBA, a .229 xBA and a .368 xSLG. All three metrics finished in the 28th percentile or lower league-wide. Elsewhere, Rafaela struggled mightily with strikeouts. He struck out 26.4% of the time in 2024, and his chase rate (46.4%, which finished in the first percentile league-wide) and whiff rate (33.0%, ninth percentile) weren’t all that encouraging either.
Like Arozarena, he was able to (in part) find success with counting stats due to opportunity and plate appearances, but with Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony close to the majors, it’s fair to wonder if Rafaela will have logged north of 500 plate appearances by the time the season ends.
His eligibility at different positions gives him upside as a deeper league option, but fantasy managers in more standard-sized leagues are probably better off looking elsewhere for outfield options.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – 138.54 ADP*
With his ability to impact the game in the field and on the base paths, Pete Crow-Armstrong is likely to stay a starter for the Chicago Cubs. After all, he did log a 2.7 fWAR in 123 games and 410 plate appearances last season despite finishing with an 87 wRC+.
Though it’s fair to wonder how high his fantasy ceiling will be in 2025.
The outfielder hit .237 with a .286 on-base percentage in those aforementioned 410 plate appearances with that aforementioned 87 wRC+. He also added 10 home runs and 27 stolen bases in the process while seeing all but five of his plate appearances in the bottom third of the Cubs lineup. That last bit probably isn’t likely to change, especially now with Kyle Tucker in town.
And while the stolen base production seems likely to continue–the 22-year-old finished, after all, in the 99th percentile in Statcast’s sprint speed metric–his other surface-level stats might continue to be below average if his quality of contact and plate discipline metrics carry over.
Crow-Armstrong, as it happens, posted eerily similar underlying metrics to Rafaela’s last season.
Lane Thomas – 173.36 ADP*
On the one hand, Lane Thomas could step into a reasonably more prominent role in the Cleveland lineup with Josh Naylor having been dealt to Arizona this offseason. Seeing where Carlos Santana hits, in particular, will be worth watching. If Thomas is regularly hitting behind Steven Kwan and José Ramírez, it’d notably improve his fantasy ceiling.
Still, after a career year in 2023, Thomas hit just .237 with a .309 on-base percentage and 15 home runs in 528 plate appearances. He did add significant value on the basepaths, with 32 stolen bases, but just four of those came in a Guardians uniform after a July trade from the Washington Nationals. His quality of contact and plate discipline metrics more closely resembled the numbers he put up in 2022, his first season with more than 270 plate appearances in the majors.
The 29-year-old struggled from a contact standpoint after joining Cleveland. He logged an 84 wRC+, seven home runs, a 34.8% strikeout rate, a .209 average, and a .267 on-base percentage in 187 plate appearances in the regular season for the American League Central club.
Overall, the 29-year-old posted a .307 xwOBA, a 7.4% barrel rate, and a 40.6% hard-hit rate on the season. His xwOBAcon finished at .374.
If he can start regularly in Cleveland and steal bases more often, Thomas will have a fairly decent fantasy floor, but fantasy managers are probably better off looking elsewhere in terms of players with a similar ADP, particularly if his quality of contact metrics stay in a reasonably similar range.