Finding Fantasy Production at an ADP Discount

Everyone loves a good deal. How much more excited do you feel about a purchase when you find it for 30% off? Probably quite a bit!

That fact is true not just in the actual shopping sense but in fantasy baseball as well. Draft season is here, and as you do your prep and find players you want to target, you’d surely like a discount on draft day prices if you can get it. That’s exactly how the best players have an advantage over their league mates from day one. It’s a winning strategy. Why draft a player in the 10th round when you can find the same production in the 15th?

Let’s take a look at five pairs of players with remarkably similar skills and projections that have large ADP discrepancies. (All the ADP data is sourced from NFBC drafts over the past two weeks.) Before we jump in, it’s worth mentioning two things. First, these comparisons are for standard 5×5 category leagues. Second, in each of these examples, all things being equal, I’d prefer to roster the player with the earlier ADP. There’s a reason they’re going 50+ picks earlier after all! But with such similar skill sets and projections, I love knowing I have a good backup option for these guys a few rounds later.

 

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (ADP: 23) and Luis Robert Jr. (ADP: 80)

 

You might think this comparison is a stretch, and it certainly is if all we consider are last year’s results. Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s coming off the best season of his career. He topped 600 plate appearances for the first time and put together a .256/.324/.436 slash line to go with solid counting stats across the board: 24 HR, 74 R, 73 RBI, and 40 SB. It’s easy to see why he’s looking like a late-second, early-third-round pick in 12-teamers. Conversely, 2024 was the worst season of Luis Robert Jr.’s career. Injuries hampered the White Sox centerfielder. He made just 425 trips to the plate and slashed a well-below-average .224/.278/.379 with 14 HR, 47 R, 35 RBI, and 23 SB. Thankfully for Robert, a lot more goes into a player’s draft stock than one season’s worth of data.

Zooming out from our 2024 lens, Chisholm and Robert have remarkably similar fantasy profiles. They’re both outfield-eligible, prone to missing time with injuries, and have an alluring power/speed combo that few other players can match. In fact, the comparisons go even deeper. They’re both Juniors, made their big league debuts in the abbreviated 2020 campaign, and have posted eerily similar stat lines since 2021.

Projection systems expect this duo’s uncanny similarities to continue into 2025 as well. Steamer sees them both finishing with an average in the .240s, 29 HR, 80+ R, and 80+ RBI. The only notable difference from Steamer is Chisholm’s 35 stolen base projection compared to Robert’s 27. It’s nearly the same story with ATC projections, although they’re a tad friendlier to Chisholm, giving him a slight bump above Robert across the board, most notably 14 more steals, and that’s the starkest difference in their hitter profiles.

Chisholm is without a doubt the bigger stolen base threat, especially in today’s super-charged base swiping environment, but he has even more going for him that helps explain the large ADP gap. Head-to-head, you’d much rather have: Chisholm’s better supporting cast, home games in Yankee Stadium, and a bonus of third-base eligibility.

With that more complete picture, it’s easier to understand Chisholm currently being drafted 57 picks before Robert, but if you like the power/speed combo these two offers, Robert’s an excellent consolation prize. I’d even wager it’s more of a tossup than it may seem that the lone star on Chicago’s south side finishes 2025 with the better season.

 

Tanner Bibee (102) and Taj Bradley (197)

 

Here are two names you won’t often see grouped in draft articles this offseason, and it’s easy to see why that’s the case: the first two seasons of their careers have gone in opposite directions. Both Tanner Bibee and Taj Bradley made their big league debuts in 2023 and were featured on Top-100 Prospect lists across the industry, but although Bradley was routinely considered the better prospect, Bibee has had a much more successful start to his big league career.

Looking at just that table, you’re probably wondering why I’m grouping these two together, but I’m not alone. Steamer views them nearly interchangeably for the 2025 season. Steamer projects them both to finish with a 3.89 ERA, giving Bibee the upper hand with a 1.20 WHIP compared to Bradley’s 1.23, but Bradley comes out exactly one percentage point ahead in strikeout rate. If you put those projections into FanGraphs’ Fantasy Player Rater, it gives you an auction dollar value of $9.9 for Bibee compared to $8.6 for Bradley. That’s pretty similar given the nearly 100-pick difference in draft rooms.

I’d love to see all the inputs involved in Steamer’s projections that spit out these two being nearly equivalent, but I think at least some part of that has to do with their pitch grading. Bradley’s always wowed both fans and pitch metric systems with his eye-popping 108 Stuff+, but his location issues have dragged down his overall performance and limited his time in the big-league rotation. On the other hand, Bibee’s 99 Stuff+ is less electric, but at the end of the day, results are what count in your fantasy leagues and Bibee’s are anything but pedestrian.

Bibee’s career 3.25 ERA almost feels like his ceiling unless he adds something else to his pitch mix or can find a new offering that can truly overpower hitters, but it’s hard to argue with over 300 innings of solid results from a starter just now entering his mid-20s. If you like his profile and miss out on him in the middle rounds, Bradley could certainly give you similar results if he can finally put it all together, but the 100-pick ADP difference between these two showcases the high levels of volatility you incur when drafting Bradley to your fantasy squad.

 

Freddy Peralta (109) and Yusei Kikuchi (165)

 

This one surprised me quite a bit — likely because I think of Freddy Peralta as being at least a couple of tiers above Yusei Kikuchi — but these two, despite having opposite throwing arms, are very similar. Here’s how the two have performed over the last two seasons:

Peralta’s been the better pitcher with a slight edge nearly across the board, but if you squint, you may think you’re looking at the same stat line. The additional strikeout upside gives Peralta his ADP edge in fantasy drafts, but that profile comes with a worse command. The Brewers’ ace walks more batters than Kikuchi does, and both PitchingBot and Location+ think the newest Angels starter can better command his arsenal.

Speaking of arsenals, that’s another similarity between these two. They both rely heavily on a four-seamer and slider. Peralta throws his at 54% and 22%, respectively, while Kikuchi sits at 47% and 24%. They also each round out their offerings with a curveball and changeup.

Peralta’s better results in the last two seasons made me think that projection systems would view him more favorably, but the difference is negligible. Steamer and ATC projections peg them both to toss between 168 to 178 innings with an ERA between 3.75-3.85, a WHIP of either 1.20 or 1.21, and a strikeout rate near 27%. It seems that the reason these two are projected so similarly despite a notable difference in recent results is a factor of luck. Kikuchi must not have a rabbit’s foot in his locker because he’s fared worse in traditional luck metrics over the last two seasons. He has a .311 BABIP and 74.7% left-on-base rate compared to Peralta’s .276 BABIP and 76.9% left-on-base rate.

These two are similar enough that you may think they should be grouped together in ADP, but along with a higher strikeout rate, Peralta’s on a better team and is five years younger than Kikuchi. While Peralta certainly carries volatility of his own, if you’re thinking about which of these two is most likely to blow up and have a disaster start, or even a rough campaign as a whole, Kikuchi is the clear answer. That’s why Peralta has a healthy ADP advantage this early in draft season. Still, Kikuchi remains a relative bargain if you’re interested in Milwaukee’s frontman and he’s drafted before you’re on the clock.

 

Ian Happ (128) and Taylor Ward (182)

 

This is one of my favorite comparisons, mostly because these two feel like underrated parts of building a good fantasy team. Reliable veterans don’t get enough credit. No one’s going to say, “Hey, nice pick!” after you draft Ian Happ in the 11th round, but as someone with no playing time concerns who’s a boon in four categories, maybe they should! Or they can say it when you draft Taylor Ward in the 15th. Either way, they’re both good picks!

Here are Steamer’s 2025 projections for these two left fielders:

Those projections alone may not warrant the large ADP difference, but I think looking at projections alone undersells Happ. He has 27 steals in the past two seasons compared to Ward’s 10. He’s also been healthier than Ward has during his career. Happ’s missed just 31 games over the last four years while Ward’s missed 195.

In addition to their projections being nearly identical, another odd similarity is their very similar lineup placements in 2024. Happ led off 66 times and hit third, fourth, or fifth 73 times. Ward led off 42 times and was penciled into one of those middle-of-the-order spots 114 times. Both outfielders wrapped up the 2024 season as their team’s leadoff hitters, and it’s something you may want to keep an eye on this spring to see if they’ll be getting a boost to their runs or RBI based on where they’re slotted come Opening Day.

Happ’s more than earned his ADP advantage over Ward, but while I’m happy to take him at his current ADP,  I’m also not upset if I have to pivot to Ward a few rounds later. Give these reliable veterans the respect they deserve!

 

Xander Bogaerts (144) and Tyler Fitzgerald (238)

 

This grouping may at first seem the most dissimilar of the whole article. How can we compare an 11-year veteran who’s signed to a $280 million deal to a guy making the league minimum with fewer than 400 MLB plate appearances under his belt? It’s a lot easier than you may think. Surprisingly, projection systems see these two as nearly identical, at least according to their counting stats. Here’s a sampling of two projections:

The big difference between these two is not only readily apparent in their salaries – Bogaerts could swim in his money like Scrooge McDuck if he really wanted to – you can also see it in the plate appearance column above. Bogaerts’ track record is going to keep him in the lineup every single day while Fitzgerald’s playing time is a serious question. As things stand now, he should man the keystone for the Giants come Opening Day, but if the Buster Posey regime in San Francisco is anything like his predecessor’s, they’ll happily mix and match things around the diamond, especially if Fitzgerald doesn’t hit the ground running this spring.

If you’re willing to bet on Fitzgerald coming anywhere near replicating his .280/.334/.497 slash line from 2024, he’s a phenomenal pick at his current ADP and should be a great backup plan to Bogaerts nearly 100 picks later. However, given Fitzgerald’s .380 BABIP in 2024, that batting line will almost assuredly come down a bit. That expected regression is baked into the projections though, so even assuming Fitzgerald takes a step back, he’s still a reasonable bet to match Bogaerts’ counting stats, albeit with a significantly lower batting average.

Featured image adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads, @kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)