For Whom The Pel Tolls

For the second time this week, I’m going to lead with a pitcher that is supposed to be terrible but hasn’t been.Yes, we’re going to talk about Mike Pelfrey who had another...

For the second time this week, I’m going to lead with a pitcher that is supposed to be terrible but hasn’t been.Yes, we’re going to talk about Mike Pelfrey who had another good outing with a 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks line against the Blue Jays yesterdayDude. What. Six straight starts of 2 ER or fewer now from Pelfrey. He has a 1.97 ERA since May 20th, with a 3.07 FIP and 4.22 xFIP, 7.59 xFIP, 3.09 BB/9, and 52.2% groundballs – this does include his one inning of relief on June 14th, by the way. Alright, you know how this works. Was there a change that dictates this is him turning a corner? Nothing in his pitch repertoire suggests it. I think this is a case of finding more gloves that usual, and his season’s .256 BABIP is truth to that – it should be higher given how often he induces groundballs. Yes, he’s striking out a few more batters as well, but that’s really just elevated by one seven K start, which is his only one of the season above five. He’s hosting a 4.30 SIERA in this fortunate stretch and I think he luck runs out while he doesn’t give you the strikeout production you want.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Rick Porcello – 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. I was planning on leading with Porcello, but then Pelfrey is being dumb and you need to know more about that. In summary here, you can drop Porcello as his Fastball is just so hittable. Seriously, he has a -9.2 Pitch Value on his Two-Seamer with a -1.1 on his Four-Seamer. They combined for a near 16 Pval last season. Yeah, it’s been terrible and while I want to believe in the K/BB and all, it’s like a worse Michael Pineda syndrome and you don’t want to deal with this. I suggested he was a buy low earlier in the year, and sometimes the see-saw never balances out. So it goes.

David Paulino – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Porcello’s opponent was Paulino, who pulled it off despite facing the solid Sawx offense. I watched a bit of this game and Paulino threw some terrible pitches that weren’t clobbered, but was in the zone a good amount of the time, giving him the chance to let Boston get themselves out…which they did. I’m not loving Paulino like other Spice Girls and I worry that he’ll labor through a hefty amount of starts as he gets his time in the Astros rotation. Remember, once Dallas Keuchel returns (maybe next week even?), it’s Peacock or Paulino and my instinct says Paulino gets the hook. Don’t invest in this.

Alex Meyer – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Has Meyer figured it out? How can I say that after two starts of four and five walks prior? This start was also against the Royals and he threw over 50% Curveballs. Whoaaaaa. It is his best pitch and all as it led to 18 whiffs over the evening, but jeez, I just can’t buy that, right? Like this was a night to remember and he will be burned a ton on his Fastball + Changeup that is far from serviceable #3 pitch. That Curveball will keep strikeouts alive, and I see this as a slighty better Trevor Bauer situation. Let’s see if he keeps up that absurdly high Curveball rate.

Dinelson Lamet – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks. Like Meyer, Lamet went ham on his breaking pitch in this outing, throwing over 40% Sliders as he neglected his Changeup. AS y’all know, more breaking pitches = more strikeouts and the fact he was able to get to two strikes for the pitch with his heater is a good sign. But like Meyer, Lamet doesn’t last long in games (first start with six IP) and has a history of poor command without a strong third pitch that makes him sink or swim each time out. Let’s be honest, it’s super tough to know when this will happen given his last two starts were seven earned runs each and one included a start against the Royals. Good luck predicting what happens next time.

Chase Anderson – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. We will take this and be happy that Chase is still rolling. Yes I know you want more vs the Padres but let’s not get greedy.

Zack Godley – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. I’m a fan of Godley and I’m hoping he sticks in this rotation. Don’t see why not, really.

Chris Archer – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Nicely done Archer.

Mike Clevinger – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. So it was only four innings and 71 pitches – which is odd to me since he had a start during his minor league stint – but it helped everywhere. Welcome back bud, I’d be looking to own him in 12 teamers. Streamer Record 37-24-10.

Marcus Stroman – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Yeah I’m cool with it. 1 ER more than you want, but you can’t have it all when you own Stroman.

Jerad Eickhoff – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Whoa, a decent start from Eickhoff! Still just two Ks though…

Ivan Nova – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Speaking of strikeouts, this is the highest total Nova has had since Arpil 29th. That’s eight starts straight of 5 Ks or fewer (was seven straight of 4 or fewer!). I expect him to return to that shortly.

Jesse Hahn – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. You never know what you’re going to get from Hahn – well, a somewhat low IPS at least – and he was able to fend off the strong Yankee bats for a serviceable start with six strikeouts. Don’t love Hahn and I think there are overall better options for a 12 teamer.

Kyle Freeland – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. He survived a night in Coors against the Giants. He’s so fringe Top 100 and I just don’t think he can keep this up, just like Senz-a couldn’t.

Jake Arrieta – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. It’s Arrieta repertoire watch 2017, and I saw good things here as his Changeup usage was near 20% and his Slider under 10%. That’s how it should be! Too bad he tossed a ton of pitches to get there and had to get the axe early, but I think this encouraging, believe it or not. I’m leaning toward calling him a buy low here.

Stephen Strasburg – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Good news here is the Win, bad news is he couldn’t’ get through the sixth and that WHIP is bad. Come on Stras, this were the Mets!

Michael Fulmer – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. Ugh, dude was cruising through four, then it hit him hard. I do wonder if there’s something to be said about the shoulder inflammation and if it perked up as he went deeper in the game. I also kinda wish they let him rest just one start here as I doubt this will be the last we hear of his “injury”. Here’s to hoping for the best.

Seth Lugo – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Ehhhh on one hand I’m impressed by Lugo here as he faced the Nats, on the other I still don’t like Lugo all too much. I think he’ll squeak onto The List tomorrow, but a SIERA of 4.40 and 4.69 in each of his first two starts with 24.4% line drives between them isn’t making me excited.

Hyun-Jin Ryu – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Seven strikeouts are not at expected, and neither was such a bad WHIP, but I can’t say I was a fan of this start for Ryu – 105 pitches! I don’t trust him much moving forward, and don’t recommend him for 12 teamers.

Adalberto Mejia – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Blegh. Mejia, Meshia, MeSHIVAKAMINI SOMAKANDARKRAM!

Matt Cain – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. 1 ER and 11 baserunners in five innings? Riiiiiight.

Jeff Locke – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I’m surprised we have to deal with Jeff again and I was hoping the last time I researched Locke was Sophomore year of college, but here we are, back for his fourth start of the year as his ERA sits at 4.58. But it’s a 8.24 K/9 and 2.75 BB/9! Oh please, chase others for the love Pete. And you want Pete’s love, let me tell you. He’s awesome.

Martin Perez – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Yep, that’s a Perez start.

Ryan Merritt – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. So it was Merritt after all who got the other start during this Indians double header and he did fine given the circumstances. Don’t think you’re going to get more free gifts from fans this time, though. If you’re wondering, he’s a Cup of Schmo through-and-through.

Wade Miley – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks. Wait, Miley is bad? Whaaaaaaa. 

Jake Junis – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. If you started Junis, it made a Dent in your ratios. That joke makes sense, I swear.

Yovani Gallardo – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Is he on the Anti-List. Yes, YoGa is on the Anti-List.

Jaime Garcia – 5.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Awwww, Jaime was a sneaky play if you were desperate this weekend, but I can’t say this worked out for you. At least seven Ks? Whatever, I don’t want to legit own Garcia, just note him as someone who isn’t as bad as it may seem and could be there in desperate times.

Masahiro Tanaka – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Three solo shots and four singles caused all five runs here as Tanaka fanned 10 and walked one. I feel so much like Larry David here. HRs are still bad! Strikeouts are high and just one walk! But it was the Athletics and we can’t trust him against other teams! He got Singled Out! I think we’re still a goods away from getting to the point where we start Tanaka with confidence.

Asher Wojciechowski – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s too bad Asher isn’t great. I was hoping to sit down and really hammer out how to spell Wojciechowski on a regular basis. It’s not hard at all Nick. Oh, that makes me feel so much better.

Adam Wainwright – 1.2 IP, 9 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. I’d say “it’s been fun” but it hasn’t. Not at all.

Adam Wilk – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Takes a sip from his mug. Ahhhh, nothing like some Cup of Schmo in the morning.

Today’s Streamer

JC Ramirez vs. Kansas City Royals – I went back-and-forth here between a few options, but I’m going to Ramirez here as the Royals are just bad. Other options if you need to cram in starts on Sunday are Buck Farmer against the Rays, Tyler Chatwood against the Giants (though, this is in Coors and Chatty is really bad in Coors), and even Luis Perdomo against the Brewers.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Brad Peacock vs. Oakland Athletics – He’s right around the 25% owned threshold and I think a good amount of you can take advantage of this matchup.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Mike Montgomery vs. San Diego Padres – I smell a Quality Start…it actually smells like sulfur and a pretty repulsive. But Monty isn’t and he gets the Padres. Do that.

Game of the Day

Buck Farmer vs. Jacob Faria – Two Spice Girls are going at it. My kind of Sunday.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

5 responses to “For Whom The Pel Tolls”

  1. Brian says:

    Clevinger only went 4 innings because there was a rain delay. Sent down today. Hope he is back to rejoin the rotation later this week.

  2. Miles says:

    I’m a huge fan of the site, I just had to give you props for a Shiva-blast during baseball season. That takes skill to pull off !

  3. Jared Powers says:

    Well shit just traded Mancini and Tyson Ross for Porcello and Kelvin Herrera in a QS K/9 keeper league. Banking on Porcello to turn it around hopefully… Thanks for all je write ups, my work day would be total shit without them lol…

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Sorry I didn’t change my mind sooner…

      That being said, don’t love how Ross looked out of the gate and Herrera can be a sturdy closer ROS.

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