Every season, players from different draft ranges quickly assert themselves as significant draft day values. Some of these players were high-round selections poised to take the next leap to superstardom and ascend into the first round. Others are late-round selections that establish themselves as credible big-leaguers and relevant for fantasy.
In this article, I will highlight two hitters and two pitchers who have an opportunity to make that sort of leap. I chose a player from four different draft ranges by ADP: 0-100, 100-200, 200-300, and 300-400.
James Wood (50 ADP)
It is relatively easy to sell yourself on the ceiling case for James Wood in 2025. He is one of the most tooled-up hitters in the big leagues with a unique physical build at 6’7”. With those long levers, the potential drawback will be his ability to make contact. That flaw was on display to an extent in his first stint in the majors with a 28.9% K rate. But he displayed consistent year-over-year improvement in that department in the minor leagues.
His 18.2% K rate at Triple-A in 2024 won’t be replicated, but if he can settle around the 26% mark, he could really take off with how strong the rest of his profile is.
Wood showed a very passive approach while he was feeling out major league pitching for the first time. His 38.2% swing rate was the 4th lowest in the league (min. 300 PAs) down there with the likes of the patience god Juan Soto. It was among the lowest for Wood at any level of his professional career. That approach led to him letting a heavy amount of pitches go in the heart of the zone (60.7%). Across his 336 PAs, he toyed with his aggressiveness a good amount.
It is possible his overall passivity negatively affected his K rate, as it got behind in the count more often. Unless you are one of one like Soto, it is generally better not to operate in this extreme. I’d expect that as Wood gets more familiar with how major league pitchers aim to attack him, he will raise his Swing% closer to average. Positively, it contributes to the excellent walk rates he has posted.
Wood’s collection of skills is hard to come by. The power-speed combo with a refined approach at the plate creates an epic ceiling. Yes, the groundball rate was above 55%, which could put a cap on things in the short term. But if he can improve his launch angle and elevate the ball more, there is legit 30-30 potential with his 85th-percentile sprint speed.
Already going in the 4th-5th round, depending on your leagues, he has a chance to be a top 15 bat very soon if things begin to click for the 22-year-old phenom. Since 2015, the only players age 22 or younger with at least a 50% HardHit% and 10% BB% are Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., and James Wood. And he is already hitting freaky home runs like this in the spring.
This somehow left the yard off of James Wood’s bat the other way. 111 MPH at 16 degrees…I’d venture to say pulling the ball is much less important for a guy like him. pic.twitter.com/saLaI8aXUW
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) March 5, 2025
Josh Lowe (153 ADP)
Lowe had a breakout 2023 season with 20 HR, 32 SB, and a slash line of .292/.335/.500 (130 wRC+). He made big strides in cutting the K rate to 24.8%, which allowed the other parts of his game to shine. An injury-riddled 2024 season limited him, and it was a somewhat disappointing follow-up season, but he still stole 25 bags in 106 games to go with 10 bombs.
However, there were still plenty of underlying positives. He posted a career-best 46.1% HardHit% and maintained his strong 2023 Barrel% at 10.3%. Those are of very good quality contact numbers and speak to his power upside. Further, he was one of just five players last season (min. 350 PAs) to post:
- >= 45% HardHit%
- >= 10% Barrel%
- >= 25 Stolen Bases
The other four players in that group were Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., Elly De La Cruz, and Francisco Lindor. Now, these guys are all more polished and obviously more valuable than Lowe, but he is in great company as far as power and speed upside. With Lowe set for everyday playing time in a minor league park, the power numbers could spike up as long as he maintains the strides he made with his K rate.
Spring training stats should be taken with a grain of salt. However, he has struck out just 16.4% of the time in spring with an 8.7% SwStr%. Creeping back towards the 24.8% K rate he posted in his 2023 breakout could bring an enticing ceiling. The stolen bases will clearly be there. And he now gets a big home park upgrade. Over the last three seasons, Tropicana Field has been rated as the 2nd-worst hitters’ ballpark by park factor for lefties and the 7th worst for home runs. Comparatively, the Rays’ new home park at Steinbrenner Field emulates the dimensions of Yankee Stadium.
We have already seen a 20-home-run season, and now he is entering a better home environment with a full run of playing time. While he has not pulled the ball in the air a ton in his career, he improved in that area in the 2024 ranking in the 50th percentile for Pulled FB%.
Going around the 12th-13th round, depending on your league, Lowe has a real opportunity to provide significant value. The injury-shortened season and regressed slash line give us a nice buying window. Lowe has more swing-and-miss in his profile, but it could be reminiscent of Jarren Duran’s breakout season last year. Fairly similar draft range, similar prospect pedigree, and both have intriguing power and speed skillsets. We could be viewing Lowe as a top-50 type of bat soon.
Drew Rasmussen (255 ADP)
Coming off an internal brace procedure in 2023, Rasmussen briefly pitched out of the bullpen in 2024 and once again flashed his elite stuff. Transitioning back into the rotation, there is a ton to like. Innings will be a limiting factor, but isn’t that the case for a lot of pitchers anyway? At this price point, if he nears 120-130 innings, there will be value.
Rasmussen first transitioned to the rotation in 2022 and put up strong numbers across 146 IP, but lagged a bit in the K department. With a season under his belt, Rasmussen showed us a more flavorful taste of what he could be as a full-time starter before getting injured in 2023, and it was glorious.
Furthermore, as a former reliever with premium stuff, it is always a question of how that will translate as a starter and how they navigate turning the lineup over multiple times. Rasmussen has a plethora of plus options in his arsenal. In 2023, he was one of eight starting pitchers with at least five pitches above 100 Stuff+ (min. 40 innings). He wields multiple fastballs (four-seam, sinker, cutter) and two breaking balls (sweeper and curve). Although his cutter does operate more as a gyro slider with its upper 80s velocity and near 0 vertical movement.
Rasmussen throws his hard stuff more than ¾ of the time and dialed that up even more out of the pen. In addition, he located his fastballs well with all three posting a 106 Location+ or better.
There are some drawbacks to Rasmussen that can cause some pause. In 2023, while he had a good K rate at 26.6%, it wasn’t supported by his below-average 10.5% SwStr%. He also hasn’t drawn a ton of swing and misses in the zone as a starter. However, he has shown better swinging strike rates in other years and generates a good amount of chase. He isn’t going to have an elite K rate, but he can be above average in that area and combat it with an excellent GB% and overall hard contact suppression. And of course, the total number of innings will be a question mark as he works his way back from injury.
But Rasmussen has already worked up to a fairly standard innings mark for a starter at this point in the spring and should get more stretched out as the season progresses. He’s just a really good pitcher who throws hard, has good command, and has good secondary offerings. If all goes well, he could be seen as a top-30 starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.
Jose Soriano (340 ADP)
Another flamethrowing former reliever finds his way on here in Soriano. He broke onto the scene in 2024 and established himself as one of the premier groundball maestros. His 59.7% GB% was third best among starters (min. 100 innings). Soriano has wicked stuff, and what makes him possibly even more intriguing on top of that established skill is the room for more swing-and-miss with his secondary pitches.
Soriano’s primary fastball is his sinker, which had an absurd 71.9% GB%, by far the most among starters, with the next closest being Logan Webb at 64.9%. He complements that with a four-seamer, curveball, splitter, and slider. So it’s a deep arsenal with options in both hands. The four-seam is a poor pitch despite its high velocity, but the secondary offerings have some juice.
All three of his secondaries produced above-average swinging strike rates and grade out above average by Stuff+. The splitter and curveball can be weapons he goes to more often against lefties as he cautiously navigates his sinker against them due to their platoon splits. Interestingly, though, Soriano had worse numbers against righties (.764 OPS vs. .538 OPS). The bulk of the damage came from his four-seam. It got obliterated by both hands, serving up over 1.000 OPS to both.
Soriano’s 3.42 ERA was mostly supported by the peripherals with a 3.82 xFIP. His control and command will hold him back a bit, but he commands his sinker and curveball well enough. There is room for growth here with Soriano if he can dial back his four-seam usage and turn up the usage on his strong secondaries to go with his turbo sinker. Thankfully, his four-seam usage declined as the season went on, and he should emulate that in the future.
It’s difficult to find a great comparison for Soriani because he throws much harder than your typical groundball-oriented starters. But the combination of an elite groundball rate and potential whiff offerings in his secondaries makes him appealing. That gives up the upside to return top 50 starting pitcher value if he can put some of the pieces together.
