As a dynasty owner, farm systems are built on the margins. I have always had the belief that draft picks in a First-Year Player Draft are not as important as many believe. If you can attack the waiver wire post-draft, you have the potential to find the best prospects in the class. Being able to identify some potential sleepers in FYPD is a massive strategy for building a good farm system, even while trying to compete right away. We are going to dive in on a couple of names every owner should have their eye on.
FYPD Sleepers
Carson DeMartini – 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
Carson DeMartini came into the 2024 season with the potential to have his name called in the first round. During his first two seasons at Virginia Tech, he showcased the ability to hit for average and power, combining to hit 25 home runs while hitting around .330. During the 2024 season, something changed.
He showcased impressive power numbers with 21 home runs, and a new career best in slugging percentage. But that came with a major uptick in strikeouts (42 in 2023, 71 in 2024) and a decrease in average (.323 in 2023, .269 in 2024). This left a lot of evaluators questioning who the real Carson DeMartini was. The data is even more interesting as his chase rate was nearly identical (19.3% in 2023, 20.1% in 2024), as well as his exit velocity (90.4 mph in 2023, 90.5 mph in 2024). The only thing that changed was his contact rate, which fell from 79.2% in 2023 to 64% in 2024. Since making his pro debut, it seems he is more like the 2023 version of himself.
With the Phillies, DeMartini hit .315/.385/.478 with only 14 strikeouts in 24 games. That is much more in line with the hitter many evaluators saw in 2022 and 2023. If he reverts back to the bat-to-ball skills that made him such a highly regarded prospect during college, combined with his above-average power, he is going to be a prospect every fantasy owner should be following closely.
Carson DeMartini (@HokiesBaseball) smashes the first homer of his pro career!
The @Phillies' 2024 4th-rounder is slashing .444/.474/.722 in five games with the Single-A @Threshers: pic.twitter.com/wi6wy2etbV
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 9, 2024
Ryan Johnson – RHP, Los Angeles Angels
Ryan Johnson is a fascinating case study to me. For so many years, evaluators would analyze mechanics on the mound to determine whether a pitcher has the potential to be a front-line starter. If a pitcher did not possess aesthetically pleasing perfect mechanics, they were often labeled as future relievers immediately. But the recent trend has been more in line with evaluators focusing more on stuff, strikes, and ultimately effectiveness than mechanics or physical attributes. For some reason, those reliever concerns came up with Johnson this year, which caused him to be selected at 72nd overall.
Johnson, from a data perspective, screams first-round talent. During the 2024 season, he pitched to a 2.21 ERA with 151 strikeouts and 14 walks in 106 innings pitched. That is a 36% strikeout rate with a 3.3% walk rate. That is stuff, strikes, and effectiveness if I have ever seen them.
Looking at the pure stuff, he throws from a low three-quarter arm slot with a fastball that moves more horizontally rather than vertically. It averaged 93.1 mph, flashing up to 98.2 this spring, and due to the horizontal movement, generated a 60.6% groundball rate. The fastball was not overwhelming with swing and miss, with a 14.9% whiff rate. But we have seen lots of pitchers have success with a fastball designed to keep hitters on the ground, and dominate with offspeed pitches.
The slider is Johnson’s best offering, which is currently big-league ready. It generated a 52.9% whiff rate on the season and a 40.9% chase rate. He has also added a cutter this spring, which averaged 86.8 mph and generated a 25.9% whiff rate. It is a pitch that gives a different look to his fastball and slider combo to keep hitters off balance. He also throws a changeup that flashes at times with a 28.6% whiff rate. Johnson has four pitches that have the ability to be average to above average. If he continues to throw strikes, he will be a starter, no matter what his mechanics look like.
Thatcher Hurd – RHP, New York Yankees
The mysterious case of Thatcher Hurd. Hurd pitched as a freshman at UCLA and dominated hitters in limited time to the tune of a 1.06 ERA with 48 strikeouts and 10 walks in 34 IP. He then entered the transfer portal where he teamed up with Paul Skenes in the weekend rotation at LSU. Entering the 2023 season, there was a legit debate about which of the two was the better prospect. Since Opening Day 2023, both prospects have gone in opposite directions. So what exactly happened with Hurd?
Stuff has never been a problem for Hurd. In two years at LSU, his ERA was inflated, but he still showcased above-average stuff with 140 strikeouts in 107.1 IP. In both seasons, he had convinced the LSU coaching staff that he was worthy of being in the starting rotation, only to have to be moved to the bullpen due to inconsistencies. The fastball averaged 94.5 mph this spring flashing up to 97 with 18.2 inches of induced vertical break. That is an effective out pitch at all levels, and it generated a 25.4% whiff rate. He also featured a slider that flashes above-average potential with a 32.7% whiff rate this spring. He has two quality big-league ready offerings, but couldn’t consistently get outs in college because of strike throwing ability.
During his two seasons at LSU, he featured a 12.6% walk rate. This led to a lot of rough outings, where teams were able to sit on his fastball. There were stretches of impressive baseball for Hurd, as he dominated Wake Forest and Florida in relief for the Tigers, but those were flashes in the pan. This evaluation as a sleeper is based on believing in his stuff and his organization. The Yankees have done as good of a job as any organization in taking high stuff arms and maximizing their potential. Whether that is as a starter or a high-leverage reliever, I believe the Yankees will have a plan in place to ensure Hurd’s best baseball is ahead of him. Sometimes evals are about trusting player development.
Eli Serrano III – OF, New York Mets
Serrano is a fascinating case study. On one hand, he was a highly regarded high school prospect who decided to attend NC State instead of entering the draft. As a freshman, he showed solid skills that made many believe in his potential as a pro. With a plus hit tool, standing at 6-foot-5, 201 pounds, there was a lot of belief in his ability to gain power as he matured. He then struggled to begin his sophomore year. He spent much of the year hovering around a .250 average until things clicked in May. Serrano raised his average to .285 by the end of the season with a hot stretch in May and during the postseason. This made many evaluators believe his best baseball is ahead of him.
The data on Serrano is even more fascinating. In terms of my three most important qualities of a hitter, he grades out pretty well. He averaged 90.2 mph exit velocity on the season, with an 84.7% contact rate, and a 21.1% chase rate. His combination of above-average bat-to-ball skills with a still projectable frame could have him grow into more power as he matures. Serrano flashed a 111.4 mph max EV, showing the power potential he has. He needs to add some more loft to his wing, and consistency in his exit velocity, but the skills are there to develop into a solid all-around hitter in professional baseball.