Tylor Megill vs MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 92 pitches.
One of the biggest joys of baseball is the John Doe of the league suddenly demanding your attention. The guy no one knew two weeks ago who suddenly becomes the talk of the town as they continue to light up the league. I’m not saying Tylor Megill is exactly that, but I sure didn’t expect to care much about him when he was called up during the Mets’ desperate hour. And here I am watching him earn a 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks line (16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 92 pitches) making noises as I watch him dot 95 mph four-seamers on the corners and earn eight whiffs on changeups. There’s something here.
In short, pick up Megill for his next start against the Pirates as I think his fastball/changeup combo with his command will provide dividends. That said, his slider needs work and he lost a bit of gas by the fifth (just over 70 pitches), leading to walking the pitcher in his penultimate at-bat. There will be some bumps in the road and he may not stick on your roster through to the end, but yeah, as I said, you want him for the Pirates and who knows, maybe he keeps getting better with each outing. Megill isn’t some slippin’ Jimmy and pulling a fast one on you.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Wily Peralta @ TEX (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
Say what now. Peralta has started four games this season and has allowed 0 ER in three of them. No, I don’t understand it, okay fine, his stuff isn’t that bad, it’s just the command that has killed him for ages. It’s low-to-mid 90s with a decent slider and changeup, and I’m glad it’s clicked once or twice. You’re smart to not chase it.
Kwang Hyun Kim @ SF (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 89 pitches.
Hey, it worked! Streaming Record: 53-40. His slider was still good, he pounded the zone with four-seamers and the BABIP did the rest. He may get one more against the Cubs and that’s a possible stream. Not my favorite, but considerable as he’s clearly going deep enough into games.
Bailey Ober vs CWS (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 93 pitches.
Like Tylor, I can imagine some flocking to Ober as he cruised through the difficult White Sox squad for five frames and seven strikeouts, mirror Mr. Megill. His slider and curveball worked well as they earned plenty of strikes, though I’m not as much of a fan of Ober’s four-seamer (92.6 mph) as I am Megill’s 95 mph heater and that’s the difference-maker to me for the long-term. Short-term, however, he gets the Tigers and I’m a fan of that. I wouldn’t pick the under there, instead, I’d pick the…Don’t do it. I MUST. Don’t do–THE OBER. Noooooooooo.
Rich Hill vs CLE (ND) – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 57 pitches.
He was able to recover some of his lost spin (still hovering a 100 rpm drop, though) but the Rays are being more cautious now and the point still stands – you don’t want to roster Hill any longer. His roster spot? You’re now Ober, the (former) Hill. Wait, you’re still making Ober jokes?! THIS ISN’T HIS BLURB. YOU CAN’T STOP ME.
Chase De Jong vs ATL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
De Jong? Nah, you’re better off Chasing it down with Bailey’s…next performance against the Tigers. PLEASE NICK, HAVE SOME MERCY.
Martín Pérez @ LAA (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 79 pitches.
That WHIP is a disaster and three strikeouts are wack, but hey, you’re here for the cheap wins and decent ERA, and it’s what you got. The Phils are next, and I’m not sure I’d roll the die for that. That’s it? Phew, thanks Nick. I appreciate it. Glad that’s all over. That’s all…what? I’M GLAD IT’S DONE.
Jon Lester @ SD (ND) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 83 pitches.
83 pitches for ten outs. That just isn’t gonna cut it, Lester. It’s not like we expected a whole lot from a start against San Diego, though, so fine, let’s just be happy you allowed only two earned runs and call it a day. Ober and out. NIIIIIIIICK.
José Suárez vs BOS (L) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 75 pitches.
The goal for Suárez is to establish his changeup and curveball and hope the fastball doesn’t get smoked. The good news: The fastball wasn’t that smoked. The bad news: His changeup was meh and he was terribly inefficient. JS is not code for success. Sidenote: Dylan Bundy made a guest appearance in relief and it went exactly as you expected: 1.2 frames with a HR and 2 ER. I can’t imagine what is going through his head these days. He has my deepest sympathies.
Matt Moore @ CHC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 74 pitches.
The fact that a 4.50 ERA and 1.75 WHIP is “impressive” to me says so much about Moore. Good job, bucko.
Vladimir Gutiérrez @ KC (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
He was the backup streamer today and I’m glad to see this one worked too. He’s still ultra-slider-focused (11/37 whiffs!) and why the h*ck not with how good that pitch has been. He’s done a great job at pitch separation as well and I’m kinda digging the vibe here. Sure, the curveball, changeup, and heater aren’t quite at the same level as the sweeper, but with the average Brewers lineup ahead, I think Vlady can make you Glady. Like the wicked witch? No, you’re thinking of Glinda, the good witch. Oh, okay. Phew. Yeah, really dodged a bullet there.
Kolby Allard vs DET (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 90 pitches.
Dralla made wonderful work of the Tigers as he fanned nine and earned a King Cole and this whole start between Peralta and Allard was just a lot of me saying “Huh.” His changeup went 50% CSW while the four-seamer got called strikes galore and it all just worked out. I guess I’ll be considering him a little more as a streamer in the future. However, Oakland is next so don’t do anything stupid.
Kevin Gausman vs STL (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Glad to see Gausman completely understands “The Cardinal Rule”. 13/42 whiffs on splitters is simply glorious.
Zach Davies vs PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 75 pitches.
Davies somehow made it work in this one, going 17/18 outs in play as he served up a HAISTFMFWT?! 13% CSW on changeups and a heavy 17/42 called strike rate on sinkers does little for me to jump back in.
Trevor Rogers vs LAD (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Sure, it’s just across five innings and the ratios are…meh, but this was the Dodgers and the dude produced. Props. The Marlins have made it clear that they are planning on reducing his workload through the rest of the year, sadly, which will mean roughly 12/13 starts after this, putting him around…the second week of September(ish)? That’s kinda fine with all of us, right? And who knows, maybe they skip a start or two to even it all out.
Walker Buehler @ MIA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches.
Buehler, you had the easier start of the two aces and you floundered. Your spin rates are still massively down and the secondaries we’ve seen from you lately weren’t there. Blegh. I think he’s deserving a small drop on The List tomorrow.
Mike Minor vs CIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 94 pitches.
This was a Careful, Icarus as he had just one ER entering the seventh before a deep drive to left-center field from Castellanos…which interrupted a eulogy on the Cincinnati broadcast. Anyway, nothing new to report with Minor, he did a decent job hovering the areas he wanted with his pitches, but there’s just not enough in that repertoire calling for me. I want the 93 mph back so badly.
Brandon Woodruff @ NYM (L) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 76 pitches.
Aces gonna give you a Dusty Donut as the Mets were super efficient against Woody. Womp womp. His heater wasn’t the same overpowering pitch, but it’s not like he pitched poorly – it was a 3 run seventh (Careful, Icarus) and it unraveled suddenly. The man could have gone the distance, you know.
Logan Allen @ TB (ND) – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 65 pitches.
Yikes. We weren’t considering Allen before and now it’s like we’re in the 2022 season and forgot Allen was ever in the rotation. Poor guy.
Joe Musgrove vs WSH (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 100 pitches.
Jeeeez Musgrove, you’re as enigmatic as it gets. On one hand, your ratios on the season are fantastic and come with a 30% strikeout rate. On the other, you seem to be oddly volatile from start to start and I’ll be honest, even rostering you on a team I felt like your numbers were plenty worse this year than they are. Welp, it doesn’t really matter, right? He’s obviously been amazing for y’all and a weird outing where his cutter and heater were lackluster is not actionable in the slightest.
Max Fried @ PIT (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.
Oh dang, what happened here. Fried lived a bit too much in the zone and got a bit Singled Out by the Pirates, even when his slider earned whiffs and curveballs tallied a 40% CSW. Weird. I think it’s not a major issue and just start him against Miami next. It’ll be fine, I promise.
Dylan Cease @ MIN (L) – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 107 pitches.
It’s uncommon for those with the most ER allowed to earn the Gallows Pole but Cease did just that, failing to stave off the ramifications of no spider tack. The good news is that the slider is back to normal, the bad is his fastball and changeup are…not great. I think this one was a bit unluckier than usual, though, and hey, the Twins are a solid offense. He’ll get the Orioles next before the break and I think you’ll be happy with that.
Game of the Day
Jacob deGrom vs Milwaukee Brewers – Treasure every single pitch. TREASURE IT.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Rich von Biberstein | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
If you are not rostering Hill, then you should not be rostering half the list. The Rays need innings from somewhere and they don’t have much other than Hill to throw them in the second half. Hill pitched well yesterday and they can’t keep giving him such a short leash. His ratios are better than most of the younger arms ahead of him. Furthermore, this dude has been doing this for a long time. You know he won’t turn into a pumpkin and there won;t be any innings limits. The league won’t catch up to him. Starting pitching is dire right now. It is no time to write off any veterans. The second half should be worse for the young guns and upstarts for every reason, which leaves you with a lot of names from the bottom half of the list.
I have been saying this for years, but HR are the worst way to judge a pitcher and we put a ton of emphasis on that. Conversely, getting singled out is all on the pitcher. Many guys are good at limiting hits and many are terrible at it. I know form the blind perspective of the pitcher the hits are all everyone else’s fault but that isn’t how it works. It isn’t luck. Those singles could just as well be XBH. At the point where you didn’t induce soft contact or a whiff, you got beat – to what extent damage is inflicted is luck. When you give up a single you got lucky.
Sure, I am head of the what in the hell is the defense doing club, but I have no idea how to account for that! The primary luck factor is – where are the field are my competent defenders and are they in any position to make a play. Now that I think of it like that (the way it is), maybe those singles are all luck. It isn’t BABIP though, it is the efficacy of the randomly deployed defenses.