The best part of playing dynasty baseball is building a farm system. Watching prospects develop in real life and come up to make an impact at the Major League debut is one of the best feelings. The biggest question is figuring out which prospects to take. Prospects have different levels of upside and different levels of safety. Often, the prospects with the most upside have the lowest floor. Does this make them more or less valuable? The answer is really neither. Building a team filled with some high-upside guys and some safe guys is a favorable strategy. In my article from last year, I explained some of the strategies behind drafting high-upside players which you can check out here. This article identifies one prospect for each position that has a high fantasy ceiling but an equally low floor.
Catcher: Agustin Ramirez- NYY
The Upside:
The Yankees have quietly amassed a deep well of catching prospects. We have seen Austin Wells in the Major Leagues already, Ben Rice was excellent in 2023, and Ramirez worked his way up to Double-A last season. Ramirez signed with the Yankees back in 2018 and prior to 2023, had not played a single game above the Complex Level. He was not on any fantasy radars entering the season but was excellent in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues. Overall on the season, Ramirez slashed .271/.364/.455 with a 123 wRC+. He hit 18 home runs while adding a surprising 12 bases. His breakout season was highlighted by a 27-game stop at High-A where he hit .384 with nine home runs and a 204 wRC+.
What stands out in Ramirez’s profile is his power. Although he is not the biggest (6’0”), Ramirez packs plenty of power. He has quick hands that fly through the zone and utilizes a big leg kick to bring everything together. He has a natural feel for tapping into his pull-side pop but has enough raw power to take pitches the other way. His power is not just visually appealing, but also statistically backed up. While in Low-A, Ramirez posted a max EV of 113.9 mph. A max EV this high ties him with Michael Harris II and William Contreras while ranking in the 90th percentile in all of baseball. His power is impressive beyond just the extremes though. He consistently hits the ball hard and posted an average EV of over 91 mph during his time in Low-A. Ramirez’s power is legit with enough upside for 25-30 home runs.
That kind of power from the catcher position is always enough to warrant serious consideration. The attributes to like in Ramirez’s profile extend even past that. He has proven over the last two seasons to be a sneaky runner on the basepaths. He stole 13 bags in 2022 and another 12 last season. Ramirez is never going to be JT Realmuto on the bases, but the addition of any stolen base upside provides more ceiling to his projection. He also showed off a tendency to hit plenty of line drives which should keep his batting average at reasonable levels.
Finding upside at the catcher position is always difficult. By targeting Ramirez in your dynasty league, you are adding a player with significant power projection and the upside of getting to play his home games in Yankee Stadium. He is a player to watch closely in 2024.
The Risk:
Ramirez’s numbers dipped significantly once he reached Double-A. His swinging strike rate ballooned from under 10% in Low/High-A to over 14% in Double-A. The strikeouts went up, the power and batting average went down making Ramirez look much more human. Adding to the risk in Ramirez’s profile is the possibility of a position change. Wells and Rice are already ahead of him on the depth chart and Ramirez’s defense is suspect at best right now. A move to first base would put infinitely more pressure on his bat to live up to expectations. Until Ramirez proves that he can handle the tougher competition in the upper levels of the Minor Leagues, he will remain a risky investment.
First Base: Ivan Melendez– ARI
The Upside:
Any player that has a nickname like “The Hispanic Titan” instantly catches your attention. Standing at 6’3” 225 pounds, Melendez is an intimidating presence in the box. He sure lives up to his nickname as he has already shown the ability to hit some tape-measure home runs.
Y'all wanna see Ivan Melendez hit another home run?
Here ya go! pic.twitter.com/XjIWzZLdZK
— Amarillo Sod Poodles (@sodpoodles) August 9, 2023
In just his first full professional season, Melendez crushed 30 home runs. The power looks effortless at times. His swing is designed to launch balls in the air. Add in his physical projection and propensity to pull the ball and it is no wonder he hits home runs left and right. Home run per fly ball is one of the stickiest stats in the Minor Leagues when it comes to Major League projection. Melendez posted a HR/FB% north of 28% last year. If you are looking to dive really deep into his upside, Melendez did not hit a home run before May 9th and after August 16th. He crushed 30 in 285 plate appearances sandwiched between those two dates. A cool 600-plate appearance pace of 63 home runs during the heart of the year.
Any player that can go on a tear like that warrants attention from the dynasty community. Sure there are flaws which we will get to shortly, but there is enough upside for 40+ homers here. The best part is this was Melendez’s first professional season. With more Major League coaching, there is plenty of reason to believe he can get even better. A 139 wRC+ in your debut season is something that not many prospects can do. If you are looking to add upside to your dynasty team, make Melendez a prime target this year.
The Risk:
A prospect cannot hit 30 home runs without there being significant risk right? The reason Melendez does not show up on any top-100 lists is because of serious doubts surrounding his hit tool. Melendez struck out 34.3% of the time in 2023 with concerning whiff rates. His pitch recognition is not great and he is extremely susceptible to breaking pitches. The numbers are particularly bad against right-handed pitching where he struck out 36.7% of the time. His overall slash line against lefties was .343/.451/.877. His slash against righties was a much more modest .255/.316/.507. Left-handed prospects that project to be on the strong side of a platoon are one thing. A right-handed, first-base-only prospect with a platoon risk is a different story entirely. There is a chance Melendez never hits enough to earn a consistent role at the Major League level despite his monstrous power.
Second Base: Echedry Vargas– TEX
The Upside:
Vargas signed with the Rangers back in 2022 for just $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic. Steve Dwyer put out a prospect report late last season breaking down exactly what Vargas brings to the table as a dynasty prospect. If you want to know the ins and outs of his game, I encourage you to check that out.
For now, let’s focus on Vargas’ upside. Underrated during the International Signing Period due to his size, Vargas showed off significant power improvements in his second professional season. He uses his pull side well and his leg kick helps to add more pop. His HR/FB% jumped up to 16.7% this season. Vargas hit 11 home runs in just 52 games giving him a 600 PA pace of 29 home runs. He profiles as a second baseman long term which gives this kind of power even more value in fantasy.
On top of this power outburst, Vargas has plus speed which he is not shy about using. He stole 13 bases in his first professional season and went 17/20 on the bases this past year. Although any 18-year-old’s speed profile could change, the odds of Vargas adding too much muscle to steal bases are low.
In addition to his 20/20 power, Vargas does not come with the same ground ball issues that many young hitters face. He consistently gets the ball in the air and hits plenty of line drives. His speed helps his batting average even further. He projects to run consistently above-average BABIPs throughout his career. Vargas is an easy profile to project. At just 18, he has already shown a solid power stroke and plus speed. Second base is one of the thinner positions in fantasy and the Minor Leagues. Vargas offers a higher ceiling than most prospects at the position and you can still get in on him for cheap.
The Risk:
Vargas has played in a total of 107 professional games. Yes, there has been a lot to like so far, but he also has yet to find any success above the Complex League level. The competition jumps significantly and there are already red flags popping up now. The jump from the DSL to the CPX resulted in Vargas’ strikeout rate doubling. He posted a swinging strike rate of 28.9% last season which is somehow higher than his strikeout rate. That is not something fantasy managers should expect to continue, and Vargas’ aggressive approach could get him in trouble against tougher competition.
His true game power is also a bit more suspect than his 2023 numbers suggest. A smaller frame and less favorable hitting conditions could bring his home run totals down. At this point, there are a lot of unknowns in Vargas’ profile which adds plenty of risk. His upside is higher than most second baseman but his floor is also significantly lower.
Shortstop: Sebastian Walcott– TEX
The Upside:
Walcott was one of the most popular prospects in Minor League Baseball during the early parts of 2023. After signing with the Rangers for $3.2 million last January, Walcott wasted no time introducing himself to the league. In a 15-game span, Walcott hit his first six Major League home runs while batting .397 at the Complex League. He was a human highlight reel with the projectable frame fantasy managers dream about. Standing 6’4” at 17 years old, there are few prospects in all of baseball with as much upside as Walcott.
432 ft, 109 mph exit velo bomb from @swalcott242! 💪
First home run in the Arizona Complex League for the 17-year-old. Walcott is currently the youngest player in any complex league. pic.twitter.com/WiLP9mqA3E
— Rangers Player Development (@TEXPlayerDev) June 25, 2023
He finished the season with seven home runs and 12 stolen bases. Plus-plus raw power with plus speed is exactly the kind of upside this article is designed around. He can get a bit pull-happy at times trying to crush every pitch he sees, but his natural pull tendencies are encouraging for future power projection. He should continue to grow into more power as he matures physically. There is 30 homer, 20 steal potential here.
What stood out about Walcott was his maturity at the plate. The raw intangibles are obvious, but his understanding of the strike zone is rare for his age. He walked 10.7% of the time but showed increased patience as he progressed to face tougher competition (albeit in small sample sizes). Despite holes in his swing, Walcott has strong pitch recognition for his age and is moving quickly through Texas’ system. In his four-game sample at High-A, he was over five years younger than the average player. The Rangers recognize his upside and dynasty managers should as well.
The Risk:
No 17-year-old prospect is going to be a finished product. Walcott’s strikeout rate in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues was extremely high. He struck out 29.8% of the time with concerningly high whiff rates. Walcott’s swing gets long at times as he tries to hit every pitch 500 feet. His aggressive swing leads to inconsistencies in his bat path and produces low line drive rates. He routinely pulls off the ball resulting in him rolling over on pitches instead of showing a willingness to take them the other way. The Rangers are going to need to work closely with Walcott to refine his swing. His hit tool profiles below average at best right now. Across his final 104 plate appearances, Walcott hit just .172.
The upside in Walcott’s profile is enormous, but raw athleticism is not going to carry him to the Major Leagues. There is a strong chance Walcott continues to struggle against tougher competition and does not ever live up to his potential. He also has a high probability of losing some of his speed as he continues to fill out physically. This would lower his overall upside and add additional risk to his profile.
Third Base: Austin Charles– KC
The Upside:
The perfect prospect to follow Walcott up with is Austin Charles. There is no doubting Charles’ athletic ability. Like Walcott, Charles also stands at 6’4” and might be even more toolsy than Walcott. The Royals selected Charles in the 20th round of the 2022 draft out of high school and offered him enough money to pull him away from his commitment to UC Santa Barbara. He did not focus solely on hitting until getting drafted leaving plenty of work to be done by Kansas City’s player development staff.
Unlike Walcott, Charles is still learning how to use his large frame. He is extremely wiry at the plate with more raw tools than game tools. He is a plus runner now and stole 12 bases in 69 games last year, but could slow down if he continues to mature physically. The game power is the biggest thing lacking in his profile. Charles hit just three home runs last year, but the upside is plentiful. Charles has a natural feel for pulling the baseball and has no trouble getting the ball in the air. He currently lacks the physicality to post impressive home run totals, but that should come with age. His quick hands add to his power potential.
Charles’ profile is one filled with projection. Unlike some of the other names on this list, we have not seen impressive counting stats or slash lines from him yet. Picking up Charles is a bet on athleticism. The best time to get in on a prospect like Charles is before the breakout. If he can put everything together in 2024, dynasty managers will be lining up to add him to their teams. Why not get in now and beat the rush to this high-upside player?
The Risk:
The risk is betting on athleticism without results. Charles has a total of four professional home runs and has a long way to come to turn his raw power into game power. Being on the bigger side, a move to third base is also likely. This puts more pressure on his power to come through for him to become fantasy-relevant. The power is projectable, but the concerns with Charles’ profile go deeper than that.
He deploys an aggressive approach at the plate with plenty of swing and miss. He struck out 24.8% of the time last season with a swinging strike rate above 17. With Charles, you not only have to bet on his athleticism turning into results, but you are also counting on substantial improvements to his hit tool. There is a higher chance Charles never reaches the Major Leagues compared to him becoming a useful fantasy asset.
Outfield: Kristian Robinson-ARI
The Upside:
Signed by Arizona back in 2017, Robinson quickly made a name for himself. Robinson slashed .279/.363/.428 in his debut season followed by a .282/.368/.514 slash line in 2020. He was considered by many to be one of the top prospects in baseball at just 18 years old. The COVID shutdown, legal troubles, and Visa issues resulted in Robinson missing the entirety of the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Robinson returned to the diamond May 30th of 2023 with much less fanfare than when he last stepped foot in the box.
Back when Robinson was flying up prospect boards, scouts raved about his athleticism and raw potential. His ability to hit for power and speed at such a young age was impressive. Standing at 6’3”, his frame lent itself to plenty of projectability. Flash forward and Robinson is still that same player just a couple of years older. Arizona started him off in the Complex League to get his feet back under him and were not shy about moving him quickly through their system. He appeared in games at four different levels finishing the season with a .293/.382/.532 slash and a 140 wRC+.
By the lack of fanfare, you would think Robinson is 27 years old. He will still be just 23 years old for the entirety of the 2024 season and was 40% better than the league average offensively in his first taste of professional baseball since 2019. Raw ability like that is unteachable. His 600 plate appearance pace in the minors last year was 36 home runs and 59 stolen bases. Robinson possesses an elite combination of power and speed that should have fantasy managers drooling. Few prospects in baseball come with the upside that Robinson has. If you are looking for upside, get in on Robinson now while his price is still discounted.
The Risk:
The risk in Robinson’s profile primarily lies in his strikeout rate. Robinson has always had trouble making consistent contact and these skills looked even worse in 2023. Robinson wound up striking out 31.6% of the time last season with that number increasing with each promotion. His swinging strike rate approached 20% which is a major red flag moving forward. If not for a .388 BABIP, his stat line might look significantly different. Speaking of BABIP, there is plenty of reason to assume regression. Robinson has run high ground ball percentages throughout his professional career. This is typically something that causes issues for players once they reach the Major Leagues. Multiple questions about Robinson’s hit tool create significant risk in projecting his future value.