Hitter List 9/4: Ranking the Top 150 Hitters to Own ROS

Hello and welcome to Hitter List, where every Wednesday I’ll be flawlessly ranking the top 150 hitters in baseball from now through the end of the season.

To truly hate something, you must first understand it, so here’s a general overview of how I go about evaluating players so you can be upset with these rankings more thoroughly:

• Given that these rankings are taking place in a vacuum, I tend to value stolen bases more than home runs. The 5,585 homers hit in 2018 were the fourth-highest total in modern history. And the 2,474 stolen bases from last year were the lowest total since 1994 and the eighth-lowest total since 1969. In other words, stolen bases are a scarce resource getting even scarcer, like the New York Mets‘ chances of making the playoffs. Meanwhile, home runs are an abundant resource that are becoming more prevalent, like baseball fans who can now correctly spell “Aristides.” All else being equal, I’ll take the guy with 15 HR/20 SB over the guy with 20 HR/15 SB.
• I’m generally not a believer in positional scarcity, so position eligibility only comes into play in two instances: as a tiebreaker when two players are fairly evenly matched, or if a player is eligible at catcher, because catcher is a barren wasteland this year filled with adrenaline-fueled maniacs playing guitar riffs while strapped to 18-wheelers. Wait, no, that’s Mad Max: Fury Road, but catcher is just as bleak and weird.
• I’m an old man who’s afraid of change, so I tend to be low on young players without major league track records.
• I lean on track record more than recent performance, unless I see a significant underlying change in approach.
• These rankings apply only to leagues using standard scoring (R, RBI, HR, SB, AVG) and lean more towards rotisserie and H2H categories leagues. Adjust accordingly for other formats.
• These rankings are meant to be from today’s date through the end of the season. These are purely for redraft, so I’m not taking 2020 into account here at all.
• A player’s movement in the rankings can be just as much about where guys around them have moved as anything else. A player might move down purely as a result of someone below them rising, and vice versa.

 

[hitter_list_2019 list_id=”36016″ include_stats=”1″]

 

Now onto the recaps:

• Injuries: Keston Hiura, Gio Urshela, and Max Muncy hit the IL this week. George Springer seems to be headed there as well, though no official word has been given. Edwin Encarnacion, Willson Contreras, Nomar Mazara, Byron Buxton, and Luke Voit were activated. Buxton is being used exclusively as a defensive replacement/pinch runner right now, so he drops off the list as a result.
• Additions: Kyle Tucker, Gavin Lux, Brandon Nimmo, Travis d’Arnaud, Nate Lowe, and Encarnacion make their debuts/returns to the list this week.
• On the mend: Ramon Laureano should be returning in the next few days. When healthy, I think Laureano has the upside of a top-40 hitter, so if he happens to be sitting on waivers in a shallow league, now’s the time to pounce.
• I believe the Aristides Aquino Principle states that a baseball in motion must remain in motion until it is met by the equal-and-opposite force of his bat, at which point it is obliterated. With two more homers over his last seven games, Aquino is up to 15 on the season in just 116 at-bats. The quality of contact isn’t super impressive (38% Hard Hit), but he’s mastered the art of the launch angle (20-degree average) to really wring as much power as possible out of his batted balls. The expected stats point toward quite a bit of regression, especially in the batting average category, but with less than a month to go in the season you’d be crazy not to enjoy the ride.
• Speaking of enjoying the ride, Eduardo Escobar has returned with a force over the past week, hitting .333 with four more homers to bring his season total up to 33. He’s still hitting just .227 so far in the second half, but it’s hard to really complain when he continues to rack up homers and counting stats at an elite level. Everything about Escobar’s peripherals screams that he’s been getting extremely lucky this year (32% Hard Hit, 16% HR/FB, .255 xAVG, .333 xwOBA), but sometimes a run of good luck can carry you through an entire season, so hats off to him and let’s hope he can finish strong.
• I’d love to say that I’ve been benefiting from Nick Castellanos‘ unbelievable run because I had faith in him and stuck with him all season, but to be quite honest it was managerial negligence that kept him rostered in one of my leagues all year. In 31 games with the Cubs he’s smacked 12 homers and hit .346. His batted ball mix hasn’t changed at all since arriving in Chicago though, he’s mostly benefiting from a 30% HR/FB, way up from the 9% he was posting in Detroit.
• Tommy Pham finished incredibly strong last season, and he seems primed to do it again this year. He’s hitting .368 over his last 15 games with six stolen bases. The one home run is a little concerning, and makes me wonder if his hand strain from a few weeks back is still bothering him. But if he keeps running at this pace, a 25/25 season is still within his grasp.
• Kolten Wong continued his torrid hitting, going 12-for-24 this past week with a homer and two stolen bases. The fact he hits primarily toward the bottom of the lineup limits his counting stat upside, and there isn’t much pop in his bat. But with a .376 average over his past 30 games, he’s doing enough right now to warrant a spot on most rosters down the stretch.
• Has any hitter suffered as brutal a drop-off as Hunter Renfroe this year? After hitting 27 homers in the first half of the season, Renfroe has hit just four in the second half while posting a .179 batting average over 140 at-bats. Hopefully you sold high.

 

Graphic by Michael Haas (@digitalHaas on Twitter)