The year was 2003. I was entering my senior year at Bedford High School, the fine institution that produced former Brewer and current Reds outfielder Joey Wiemer. The last of the Volkswagen Beetles was made, and Linkin Park released “Meteora,” the soundtrack of my youth. Four million children were born in the United States that year, including two bouncing baby boys: Jackson Matthew Holliday and Jackson Peter Merrill. Just four months later, in a heavily populated Venezuelan town, Jackson Brayan Chourio emerged from the womb, and 20 years later, the baseball world changed forever through the “Jackson 3”.
2024 was a banner year for Merrill and Chourio as rookies, and while Holliday didn’t deliver the expected results, all three are highly coveted in Dynasty leagues. All three players are just scratching the surface of what they can ultimately become as real-life and fantasy players. While we can categorically group them by first name, their skill sets are unique, and each player has a different floor and upside. So, how should we value them moving forward?
Let’s begin with the oldest player in the group, Padres’ star Jackson Merrill. I’ve written extensively about Merrill and his value in fantasy, but let’s focus on his impact as a rookie this season. First and foremost, Merrill had just 83 plate appearances above High-A and never appeared in a single game at Triple-A. He entered Spring Training hoping to compete and gain valuable learning experiences for a midseason call-up and cracked the Opening Day roster. When Merrill went to Korea with the Padres and started the season opener, it was clear he was their guy. But the most impressive part of it all was that Merrill made a permanent move to centerfield after playing his entire career as a shortstop with only five games in the outfield. Not only did he play centerfield, but he excelled! Merrill finished in the 97th percentile for Outs Above Average and 90th percentile for arm strength, two critical components to being an outstanding centerfielder.
Offensively, there was a brief six-game “adjustment period” to start the season, where Merrill hit .222 with five strikeouts in 18 at-bats. But, he homered in his first at-bat on April 1st and never looked back. Merrill finished 2024 with a .292/.326/.500 slash line with 24 HR, 31 doubles, 90 RBI, and 16 steals while playing 156 games. 156 games??! As a rookie??! Incredible! Here’s the thing that appears outside of your traditional surface stats. In the 8th inning or later, Merrill batted .303 with seven home runs and a .846 OPS. With his team trailing, he had an OPS over .900. Clutch cannot be quantified, but if it could, this is what it would look like.
To recap, Merrill jumped from Double-A to the big leagues. He played elite centerfield. He is a frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year, was the Padres’ most valuable player, and should finish in the Top 10 for NL MVP….oh, and he’s just 21.
Fantasy Value
Team Context
Merrill went 24/16 as a rookie with 90 RBIs and 77 runs scored despite batting sixth or lower in 131 of 156 games. In mid-September, Merrill moved to 5th in the order, stayed there throughout the postseason, and is a logical place for him moving forward. The Padres’ lineup is solid throughout, and with Arraez, Tatis, and Machado hitting ahead of Merrill, the opportunities for counting stats are limitless.
Offensive Profile
When you bat .292 in your rookie season, the writing is on the wall that you’re a good hitter. Merrill had an 87.5% in-zone contact rate and 81% overall contact rate. Despite chasing 34.4% of the time, something he didn’t do much in the Minors (22%), his strikeout rate was a terrific 17%. It’s important to note that most of his swing and miss was against sliders and changeups, two pitches that most minor-league pitchers struggle with. For context, he posted a .530 SLG against fastballs. His hit tool is highly regarded and should continue to get better with more experience. If Merrill can improve in one area, it would be plate discipline, where he had a high chase rate and walked 4.9% of the time.
Surprisingly, Merrill’s batted ball data came out better than expected. He had a 90.4 mph average EV, a 105.5 mph 90th percentile, and a max EV of 111.6 mph. His 24 home runs were nine more than any previous season in the Minors, and his perceived power output looks more promising. Nothing in the profile would indicate Merrill will be a bopper, but I can envision a 30-homer season if it continues to click.
The 21-year-old had 16 steals this season and grades well with 81st-percentile Sprint Speed. Players with comparable speed include Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Lowe, and Nico Hoerner, which offers hope that he can continue to provide solid speed output. With above-average speed and his high baseball IQ, it’s safe to lock Merrill in for 15+ steals annually.
As a whole, Merrill is a true five-category contributor with above-average output in batting average and HR. As we’ve seen with Padres’ players, his counting stats will be volatile, but runs and RBIs will come in bunches when their lineup clicks.
How High Is Too High?
For dynasty, I have Merrill ranked at #36 overall, 14th among outfielders, and too high for his current value. Natural attrition (aging players, injuries, etc.) will fluctuate his value over time, but anything higher than Top 25 is too high. The Top 20 players are reserved for the elite of the elite, and I don’t see Merrill reaching that level. Merrill will likely not hit more than 30 HR, steal more than 25 bases, or drive in/score more than 110 runs, unlike the players inside the Top 20. With that said, his value in points leagues may push Top 20, but only if he can improve his walk rate while maintaining a sub-20% strikeout rate. Merrill is a fantastic young player who has captivated the baseball world, and we are so fortunate to have witnessed his ascent to stardom.
Jackson Merrill hits his second #walkoff home run of the season! pic.twitter.com/qCU0g0rIzR
— MLB (@MLB) August 25, 2024
Chourio was the only player in this group who was fit to make the Opening Day roster entering camp. The Brewers locked Chourio in with an 8-year/$82M extension in December of 2023, signaling his inclusion as a fixture in their lineup. Like Merrill, Chourio had limited exposure beyond Double-A, appearing in six Triple-A games to close out 2023. When he did play at Double-A, Chourio experienced early season struggles adjusting to the “pre-tacked baseballs,” which gave pitchers a significant advantage. After a few months, the playing field was leveled, and Chourio took off. From June 1st on, he posted a .288/.355/.492 slash line with 15 homers, 18 doubles, and 32 steals. That continued Chourio’s dominance of the Minor Leagues, which dated back to his breakout season of 2022. The #1 prospect in baseball had shown enough to warrant a financial commitment from his organization and was on the path to the Show.
Chourio performed well in the Spring, batting .323 with four extra-base hits, and earned his way onto the roster. The first few months were an adjustment period as he slashed .223/.289/.381 with seven homers and a 26% strikeout rate through his first 64 games. He had begun to lose playing time to Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and Blake Perkins, among others. Just before the ASB, things started to piece together for Chourio. A 12-game hit streak began on June 23rd and served as a springboard to a monster second half. Over the next 81 games, he hit .309 with 14 homers, 14 steals, 27 extra-base hits, and a .903 OPS. His strikeout rate dipped to 17.8%, and his 147 wRC+ ranked 11th among qualifying hitters. Among those hitters were Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Bobby Witt Jr, all with historic runs to close the season. The NL Rookie of the Year race between Chourio, Merrill, and Paul Skenes should be one of the closest in recent history.
Fantasy Value
Team Context
Once Chourio got hot, he assumed his place near the top of the Brewers order and hit .287 with a .344 OBP and .847 OPS. Chourio will likely hit leadoff against LHP, while Brice Turang will lock it down against RHP. The big hit in the Brewers order comes from the unknown. Willy Adames is a free agent this offseason, and Christian Yelich is recovering from back surgery. That leaves William Contreras and Chourio as the primary offensive cogs surrounded by several role players. Therefore, I have concerns about his counting stats, specifically RBIs, in the leadoff role. However, Chourio seems likely for 30 HR and 30 SB annually, especially playing in a hitter-friendly park in Milwaukee.
Offensive Profile
Chourio has shown a variety of offensive tools since his debut in 2021, but the magnitude of his talent was only fully realized once he adjusted to the level. One element of his profile stands out: his speed. From day one, Chourio has had 70-grade speed and has never been shy about running. He’s stolen at least 20 bases every season of his professional career, including 22 as a rookie this year. Nothing in his profile would indicate any change in his approach on the basepaths other than that he’ll run more in the future. According to Baseball Savant, Chourio ranks in the 97th percentile in Sprint Speed at just below 30-ft per second, meaning it takes him approximately three seconds to steal 2nd base. The Brewers ran 259 times this season, second most in baseball. With Chourio’s skill set and his team’s aggressiveness, his stolen base output should grow exponentially.
At the plate, Chourio improved significantly over the past two seasons. Like most young star players, he has handled velocity well but had gaps in his swing against breaking pitches. His struggles in Double-A surrounded breaking pitches aided by the tacked ball. In the second half of 2023, he adjusted and, as a follow-up, looked much more comfortable this season. Chourio had a .330 wOBA and .484 SLG against breakers in his rookie year with a reasonable 31.3% Whiff rate. His chase rate was around 32%, well above league average, and despite a manageable 21% strikeout rate, he posted a 27.1% overall Whiff rate. Although his plate discipline isn’t considered poor, it must improve to continue his development to reach an elite level.
The one area that still needs to meet expectations has been Chourio’s power. His 21 home runs were a solid contribution as a rookie, but the batted ball data is below average. An 89.7mph average EV is respectable and aligns with a 44.9% overall hard-hit rate. However, a 104.9mph 90th percentile EV, 111.6 max EV, and 7.8% barrel rate are all league average. With that in mind, things improved for Chourio as the season went on, allowing him to reach those numbers. Through June 1st, Chourio had a near-50% groundball rate (which held firm) with a hard hit rate below 30%, and we know how he finished. Chourio may become an elite exit velocity producer, but we should consider him slightly above league average until proven otherwise.
Chourio has already become a real-life superstar with his high energy and youthful enthusiasm for the game. In fantasy, a few things hold him back from reaching that elite level, but the tools are there for him to become something extraordinary.
How High Is Too High?
I’ve been incredibly aggressive with Chourio despite some questionable attributes. He sits at #11 overall, which is sixth among outfielders. Chourio is 20 years old (21 in March) and just scratching the surface of his capabilities. Truth be told, I’m too high on him right now, but I genuinely believe that he has Top-5 tools and could, in time, be the #1 overall player in fantasy. Realistically, Chourio is a definite Top-20 asset in Dynasty, but anything north of Top-20 is too high!
Jackson Chourio inside the park HR!
— Underdog MLB (@Underdog__MLB) June 26, 2024
Name recognition for Jackson Holliday is enough to carry him to incredible perceived value in Dynasty. With an impressive pedigree as the top-rated HS player in America as a junior, the #1 overall prospect in baseball, and the son of a 7-time MLB All-Star, Jackson Holliday has been on the cusp of greatness since he was 16. Now 20, Holliday has reached the pinnacle and is a Major League player, but not without adversity.
As expected, Holliday was the #1 overall pick in the 2022 Draft and signed a massive $8.9M bonus to join the Orioles. Holliday was solid in his 20-game debut following the Draft, posting a .297/.498/.422 slash with 25 walks compared to 12 strikeouts. As a follow-up, he ascended four levels in 2023, ultimately reaching Triple-A. In 125 games, he hit .323 with 12 homers, 30 doubles, nine triples, and 24 steals while drawing 101 walks as a 19-year-old. Holliday’s 159 wRC+ was sixth among non-DSL players, trailing only Samuel Basallo (162 wRC+) among teenagers. The expectation was that Holliday would compete in Spring Training for a spot on the Opening Day roster ahead of 2024.
Holliday did everything he could in O’s camp, moving from SS to 2B while hitting .313 with two homers and five extra-base hits. The strikeout rate reached 33.3%, and ultimately, the Orioles moved on without Holliday on the roster. Ten games into the 2024 season, the Orioles promoted Holliday for his MLB Debut. The first go-round was rough. In 36 plate appearances, Holliday hit .059 with 18 strikeouts (50% K-rate) and was demoted. His struggles continued in Triple-A, but he righted the ship and returned to Baltimore. Although his second stint was slightly better (.218, 5 HR, 4 SB), his performance was underwhelming and failed to meet lofty expectations. It’s not necessarily Holliday’s fault; he’s only 20 and, unlike Chourio and Merrill, did not get to work through his struggles at the highest level. MLB is complex, and the baby-faced baby bird learned the hard way.
Fantasy Value
Team Context
The Orioles are loaded offensively. With Henderson, Westburg, Rutschman, and Santander, the middle of their lineup is explosive and will only improve with the additions of Coby Mayo and Holliday. With his skill set, Holliday seems poised to be a #2 hitter once all is said and done. Given his propensity to get on base frequently, the rare opportunity to consistently score 100+ runs is within reach. With a solid lineup 1 through 9 and hitting behind Henderson, Holliday will have an opportunity for increased RBI chances, making his counting stats stand out among players at his position. Even if the power takes longer to develop, he is an excellent four-category contributor with a better-than-average contribution in the fifth category (HR).
Offensive Profile
Although his 2024 numbers don’t reflect it, Holliday has fantastic bat-to-ball skills and a 70-grade hit tool. His approach is highly advanced for his age, evidenced by a 19.8% walk rate in the Minors and, despite his struggles, a 27.2% chase rate in the Majors. Even under the scrutiny of a prolonged slump, Holliday did not chase often. However, his profile was exposed via Holliday’s passivity. Even in the Majors, his swing rate was 46% compared to 38.5% in Triple-A, which is too low for a player with his contact skills. Too much patience can be detrimental, and it was for Holliday. Maybe it was a lack of confidence or just getting a feel for pitching, but Holliday could benefit from a little more aggression early in the count.
Power has long been a point of contention in his profile. His HR production has been OK in the Minors, but how will that translate? Holliday homered twice in a reasonably small MLB sample (190 at-bats), posting an 89.3 mph average EV and 109.2 mph max EV. Those readings are consistent with his Triple-A data and would fall around the upper 1/3 of the Major Leagues. Some notable players in that range are Mookie Betts, Mitch Garver, and Michael Busch, all of which have produced 20+ homer seasons in the Show. I expect his EVs to tick up slightly with physical growth and his knack for finding the barrel, but 30 homers is probably a stretch, especially in his home ballpark.
One area where I expect Holliday to be more impactful is on the bases. 95th-percentile Sprint Speed is outstanding and especially exciting for a player with a high baseball IQ and instincts. With his speed and intelligence, 20+ stolen bases should be a floor with potential for more.
There is no doubt about the talent and pedigree that Holliday possesses, but how long will it take for him to realize his potential? The first stint in the Majors was poor, and while he looked better to close out the season, I anticipate Holliday having a true breakout season in 2025.
How High Is Too High?
At times this season, I’ve had Holliday as high as the Top 25 and then scaled back after his rough debut. I’ve also held him in the mid-40s and felt confident, but others around him continued to improve. Currently, Holliday is #59 in my Dynasty rankings, which reflects the players around him more than Holliday. He’s just 20 years old and has had a spotlight on his career since he could drive. While I love Holliday as a player, his fantasy value will depend on his power production to determine whether he is a five-category contributor and can reach that elite echelon. Right now, anything in the Top 30 is too high! However, very few people doubt that Holliday will ultimately wind up as a Top 20 Dynasty asset.
Jackson Holliday AGAIN! Three straight games with a homer, this one a go-ahead shot in the seventh! pic.twitter.com/rUdIpQZj1P
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) August 8, 2024
Why does a lifelong member of Red Sox Nation have a picture of a kid with a Mets hat next to his bio?
Good and interesting read, thanks!
That said, while I’m not exactly sure what his ceiling actually is, I’m pretty sure you’re selling Jackson Merrill short here.
“Merrill will likely not hit more than 30 HR, steal more than 25 bases, or drive in/score more than 110 runs, unlike the players inside the Top 20.”
As a 21-year old rookie who logged only 211 PAs above A-ball and who skipped over triple-A entirely, he still hit 24 homers. Notably, his power output increased in the second half (First Half: 12 HRs in 331 ABs; Second Half: 12 HRs in 223 ABs), which aligns with comments he made mid-season about learning how to pick his spots to swing for the fences. Going forward, if he just hits homers at the rate he did in the second half in 2024, then he’ll already be close to 30 homers. And that would be without even factoring in any of the additional physical projection and development that one would typically expect from a 21-year old player.
Most importantly, Merrill has the two attributes that drive success in both hitting and hitting for power. He makes contact at an elite rate and when he does make contact he hits the ball really hard. That alone supports a projection for more power.
As for his speed, he swiped 16 bases in 19 attempts, which is a success rate that would certainly support being more aggressive. He has the speed and baseball IQ to swipe more bags.
Merrill had an incredible rookie season in an offensive era that most closely resembles the 1968 Year of the Pitcher, which is even more remarkable considering he largely blew past the upper levels of the minors.
All the signs are pointing up for Merrill. He seemed to be underrated, almost an afterthought to Jackson Holliday, before making his MLB debut, and he still seems to be underrated now. I’d definitely bet the over on the above-listed projections for Merrill.