The weight of being selected with one of the top picks in the Major League Baseball Draft can be immense for any young player, placing significant expectations on that player to quickly succeed at the highest level. Selected third overall in the 2020 draft by the Miami Marlins and consistently ranked as a Top 100 prospect throughout his minor league career, Max Meyer has likely felt this pressure over the past handful of seasons, dealing with adversity such as a torn UCL which caused him to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entirety of the 2023 season. Upon return from injury last season, Meyer produced -0.3 fWAR over 37.0 innings pitched, causing some analysts to question whether he would reach the lofty potential he displayed as a prospect.
Always possessing a plus slider throughout his career, Meyer made some significant adjustments to his arsenal over the past offseason, which has allowed him to experience a breakout at the beginning of the 2025 season. This article will discuss the changes that Meyer made to his pitch arsenal over the past offseason, as well as take a look at the factors that are driving his success so far this season.
Overview
After being selected by the Miami Marlins in the 2020 draft, Meyer made his major league debut in July 2022, starting in two games before tearing his UCL later that month. In his first two starts, Meyer produced a near league-average 23.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate, and 15.4% strikeout-minus-walk (K-BB) rate over 6.0 innings pitched. After missing the entirety of the 2023 season due to recovery from Tommy John surgery, Meyer returned to the major league level with 11 starts in 2024, generating an 18.5% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate, and 10.8% strikeout-minus-walk rate over 37.0 innings pitched.
Over his first 34.0 innings pitched of the 2025 season, Meyer has experienced a significant increase in his overall level of production. While his walk rates have remained remarkably consistent throughout his career, Meyer has experienced a 14.6% increase in strikeout rate and a 6.1% increase in ground-ball rate to begin the 2025 season. Driving this dramatic improvement in performance year-to-year have been a few changes to his pitch arsenal that have allowed Meyer to both increase his ability to generate swing-and-miss and induce sub-optimal contact.
Arsenal Changes
As mentioned earlier, Meyer has consistently displayed an above-average slider throughout his career, with FanGraphs awarding the pitch a 60/60 scouting grade upon graduation from prospect status last season. Meyer’s success with the pitch has continued in 2025, with the slider being his best-performing offering so far by measure of run value, due to the pitch’s plus shape and Meyer’s exceptional ability to locate the offering. To complement this plus slider, Meyer has made a few adjustments to his remaining pitch arsenal and appears to have settled into an ideal pitch mix that should allow him to continue this level of early-season success moving forward.
The table above displays Meyer’s short-form movement plots from the 2022, 2024, and 2025 seasons. The first notable adjustment that can be interpreted from these plots is the change in Meyer’s arm angle from season to season. In 2022, Meyer displayed a 37-degree average arm angle, raised his arm angle to 46 degrees in 2024, and has dropped his arm angle back down to 36 degrees so far this season. Arm angle is an important variable to use when examining a pitcher’s arsenal because the arm angle of a pitcher sets the expectation for the movement profile of the incoming pitch to a batter. For example, a pitcher with an over-the-top arm angle can be expected to have a pitch arsenal with north-south movement profiles, while a pitcher who throws from a three-quarters arm angle can be expected to have a pitch arsenal with a more east-west movement profile. Utilizing pitches that deviate from these expected movement profiles can cause difficulties for opposing hitters, typically resulting in swing-and-miss or sub-optimal contact. This change in arm angle likely helped him alter the shapes of his sinker and changeup (which will be discussed later) and improved the vertical approach angle on his four-seamer (VAA improved from -5.0 to -4.2, Adjusted VAA from 0.9 to 1.1).
In addition to improving the vertical approach angle on the pitch courtesy of the arm angle adjustment, Meyer also completely revamped the shape of his four-seam fastball compared to the four-seamer he threw from the same arm angle in 2022. In 2022, Meyer threw a four-seamer that possessed, frankly, pretty bad shape with 10.7 inches of induced vertical break and 2.4 inches of arm-side run at 94.7 MPH. This season, Meyer’s four-seamer possesses 15.6 inches of induced vertical break and 9.8 inches of arm-side run at 95.0 MPH, a significant improvement in fastball shape. While seam orientation data is not publicly available, it appears likely that this improvement in fastball shape can be attributed to a change in the pitch’s grip as the pitch’s axis differential has changed over the past three seasons. While the offering can still be considered slightly below average, the improved shape and vertical approach angle of this pitch have resulted in a steady increase in the four-seamer’s ability to generate swing-and-miss, with the offering’s whiff rate increasing from 5.3% in 2022 and 13.8% in 2024 to 17.9% in 2025.
To improve his performance against right-handed hitters, Meyer added a sweeper to his pitch arsenal and revamped his sinker over the offseason. Increasing the usage of the offering from 2% last season to 12% this season, Meyer’s sinker is thrown at a similar average velocity to his four-seamer while possessing 6.0 inches of induced vertical break and 15.6 inches of arm-side run. This pitch allows for Meyer to utilize an offering that can generate sub-optimal contact against right-handed hitters, and the presence of multiple fastballs can allow for his four-seamer to “play up”, serving as an additional contributor to the four-seamer’s improved ability to generate whiffs in 2025. Meyer’s sweeper is a new addition to his pitch arsenal this season, with the pitch generating 10.5 inches of glove-side movement and 3.6 inches of drop at 86.7 MPH. Meyer has utilized this pitch similar to a curveball, frequently utilizing the pitch early in counts, and the offering has been a CSW machine early in the season, generating a 48.5% CSW against right-handed hitters.
To improve his performance against left-handed hitters, Meyer revamped his changeup over the offseason. In 2024, Meyer utilized his changeup 18% of the time, with the pitch possessing 7.9 inches of induced vertical break and 13.9 inches of arm-side run at 86.7 MPH. This season, Meyer is throwing his changeup harder, with the pitch’s average velocity up to 88.7 MPH, while the offering possesses 16.2 inches of arm-side run and nearly gets to the “zero line” with 1.6 inches of induced vertical break. This adjustment in movement profile has allowed for the offering to become more effective, with the RV/100 on the pitch improving from -2.2 to 0.7 (on a scale where higher is better for the pitcher) this season.
Pitch quality models generally favor the changes that Meyer made to his pitch arsenal over the offseason. Taking a look at four major pitch quality models (PLV, FanGraphs’ Stuff+, PitchingBot, and my aStuff+ model), each model grades Meyer’s new pitches as above average. These models generally agree that Meyer’s four-seamer is a below-average offering in isolation, while FanGraphs’s Stuff+ appears to be the “low model” on Meyer’s sliders (please note that FanGraphs’s Stuff+ and PitchingBot do not differentiate between sliders and sweepers). Overall, the changes that Meyer has made to his pitch arsenal over the offseason have been significant contributors to his early-season success, and provide optimism that he can continue this high level of production throughout the remainder of the season.
2025 Results
The aforementioned changes that Meyer made to his pitch arsenal over the offseason have been direct contributors to his early-season success. As mentioned earlier, Meyer is currently producing a 33.1% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate over 34.0 innings pitched, with his 25.4% K-BB rate currently ranking as the seventh-highest among qualified pitchers.
As shown by the table above, Meyer has excelled against both right and left-handed hitters this season, producing a 27.4% K-BB rate against right-handed hitters and a 23.7% K-BB rate against left-handed hitters. Meyer predominantly utilizes the slider, sinker, four-seam, and sweeper against right-handed hitters, with his 25% usage rate of the sinker against same-handed hitters likely driving the high 63.6% ground-ball rate he has generated against these hitters this season. Meyer predominantly utilizes the slider, changeup, and four-seamer against left-handed hitters, with the improved quality of the changeup and platoon-neutral quality of the slider allowing for Meyer to also experience high levels of success against left-handed hitters.
Typically, indicators of future regression such as left-on-base rate and home-run-per-fly-ball rate indicate that Meyer has been producing near his true talent and, if anything, has been slightly unlucky in his results to start the 2025 season. By measure of SIERA, Meyer has been underperforming his expected ERA with a 3.18 ERA compared to a 2.53 SIERA so far this season. Meyer’s left-on-base percentage is slightly above-average at 79.7%, which shouldn’t raise any alarm bells, while Meyer’s 17.4% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio is a bit high, however, Meyer has consistently run high home-run-to-fly-ball rates throughout his young career. Overall, these factors are promising signs that Meyer hasn’t simply gotten “lucky” with his early-season results and, barring an unforeseen regression in velocity and/or stuff quality, should be expected to continue producing at a high level throughout the remainder of the season.
Concluding Thoughts
Max Meyer made several notable adjustments to his pitch arsenal over the offseason which has resulted in a stellar start to his 2025 season. Meyer’s change in arm angle allows him to achieve a more ideal vertical approach angle on his four-seam fastball, he adjusted the shape of his fastball to further improve the pitch’s performance, and he retooled his sinker and changeup to provide himself with additional weapons to utilize against both right and left-handed hitters. In addition, regression indicators such as SIERA, left-on-base rate, and home-run-to-fly-ball rate indicate that Meyer has been, if anything, slightly unlucky so far this season.
These changes that Meyer has made to his pitch arsenal are, frankly, very impressive and speak to the improved quality of the Marlins’ pitching development as well as the current state of pitch design as a whole. A few weeks ago, I made the argument that Clay Holmes, with his multiple fastballs, sweeper, and addition of a “kick change”, could be the epitome of modern pitching, and with multiple fastballs and a new changeup that approaches the “zero line” of induced vertical break, Max Meyer can make an argument to belong in this discussion as well. In conclusion, the changes that Meyer has made to his pitch arsenal over the offseason have been a driving force behind his early-season success and project to be a significant piece of the Miami Marlins‘ starting rotation with his improved arsenal for the foreseeable future.
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire and Peter Pryharski/Unsplash | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
Condolences for this being published on a day where Meyer was throwing batting practice!