In mid-April, “breakout” and “small sample size” are two of the most used terms in fantasy baseball analysis. This can be maddening to constantly hear. But as managers, we have to be reactive, and these small samples are all that we have right now in terms of 2026 production. Players you add early on can often be the most impactful, as they have the ability to contribute to your team all season. That’s far from the only outcome, though. There will be more than a handful of players that completely flame out, their one week of epic production a distant memory at seasons end (looking at you, Kyle Isbel). With that in mind, let’s take a look at one sparsely drafted pitcher and one universally rostered hitter who have been excellent out of the gates. As a reminder, each player I examine will be sorted into one of the following categories: “not legit,” “probably not legit,” “too early to tell,” “possibly legit,” and “legit.” All stats are through the games of Monday, April 13.

 

Randy Vásquez, SP, SDP

 

2026: 3 GS, 1 W, 17.2 IP, 19 Ks, 1.02 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

Similarly to Emerson Hancock, whom I featured in my first installation of this series, Vásquez was a fantasy afterthought coming into the season despite being locked into a rotation spot in San Diego. That’s because he had a career WHIP pushing 1.40 and a strikeout rate of roughly 15%. Excellent results aside, this version of Vásquez is different than years past. In a trend that has carried over from spring training, he’s throwing at least a tick harder on almost all of his offerings, and has added an inch of induced vertical break to his four-seamer despite the increased velocity. This has increased the swinging strike rate on the pitch three percentage points, up to 8.3% from 5.4%. That mark isn’t spectacular, but it’s solid enough to force hitters to respect his four-seamer, an offering that is Vásquez’s primary pitch but complemented by six others.

In terms of arsenal improvements outside of the heater, Vásquez has also added 1.5 inches of horizontal break (“run”) to his changeup despite throwing it a tick harder. The pitch ranks in the 99th percentile of horizontal movement! He’s used the cambio exclusively against lefties, throwing it roughly 20% of the time against them to the tune of a 21.9% SwStr% and .037 xwOBA. This is a noteworthy development for Vásquez, as he’s struggled mightily against opposite-handed hitters in his career, allowing an OPS over .800 with a putrid 2.7% K-BB%. His matchups so far have been favorable but not ultra-soft: at home against Detroit, at Boston, and then home against the Rockies.

Verdict: Possibly legit. There’s no debating that Vásquez’s stuff has improved, but like Hancock, he had a long way to go to become a fantasy asset in any format. I feel confident that his improved arsenal, specifically the four-seam and changeup combo, will allow him to generate more whiffs. Improved stuff should also give him the confidence to live in the zone more, reducing his walk rate. On the other hand, Vásquez has awful extension at just 6 feet (9th percentile), meaning that he has to keep his increased velocity for the stuff to continue to grade well. While I’m not all in, I believe that the stuff uptick combined with a deep arsenal and friendly home park is enough to make him a deep league hold and shallow league streamer. He and Hancock actually may be facing each other tonight, so I will be intrigued to see how it goes!

 

Oneil Cruz, OF, PIT

 

2026: 70 PAs, .355/.429/.645 (194 wRC+), 14 R, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 7 SB

Here we go again, folks. Since his debut in 2021, Oneil Cruz has beguiled every manager who signs up for the rollercoaster experience of rostering him. This was truer than ever last season, when Cruz posted a putrid .200/.298/.378 (86 wRC+) line with 123 combined runs and RBI that was only partially salvaged by 20 HR and 38 SB. He burned drafters badly, and that was reflected in this year’s price, which was right around pick 100. So naturally, Cruz has been the league’s best fantasy hitter through the first two weeks! I’m thrilled to be in on the ride in some leagues, but I won’t pretend to know how long it’s going to last.

 

 

So, what’s different about Oneil Cruz this season besides the results? As far as I can tell, not a lot. He is taking advantage of seeing slightly more pitches in the zone by compiling more balls with a slightly higher exit velocity on fly balls. But, there is no discernible change in his chase rate, launch angle, swing speed, or swing length. To boot, he’s actually swinging and missing more often overall, so his drop in strikeout rate doesn’t quite feel deserved. BABIP seems to be doing a lot of the heavy lifting here. Cruz also is on pace to easily set a career high in Pull Air% (28.6%), something I opted not to include in the chart above because he’s only hit 14 fly balls this season. If that sustains, I would believe more in this power binge.

Verdict: Too early to tell. As a Cruz owner, I must admit that I came into this analysis slightly biased, hoping I’d see some drastic change that would make me believe he’s turned a new leaf. But other than the improved offense surrounding him and a slight uptick in an already great barrel rate, Cruz seems to be the same guy. That’s not necessarily a bad thing – his current skillset is that of a player who can post 60+ combined homers and steals. I also expected some positive batting average regression in 2026, which was part of the reason why I selected him in a couple drafts when he fell slightly past his ADP. Because of the stats Cruz has already banked, I like his chances of finishing in the top 70, but I wouldn’t count on him being a league winner.