Well, everybody, we’ve made it to May!
Now, for me, at the time of writing, it isn’t May, but it certainly feels like it outside. However, this gets published on Friday mornings, so yes, it will be May. As I’ve mentioned in a few of the previous articles, April is the month that least correlates with the rest of the season’s stats. So does that mean that in May, we will know whether players are legit or not? Not exactly, as there are still several players who overperform (and underperform) deep into the season. Like usual, I’ve picked a few players whose recent stretches have impressed me on a standard stats basis, and we’re going to analyze them using data, performance trends, and other factors.
Parker Messick, SP, CLE
Parker Messick opened the year as a real fantasy dark horse, a rookie who perhaps could get regular innings and put up solid numbers. After each start he makes, the more and more it looks like he. can’t. be. denied.
Messick is perhaps the textbook example of what our fearless leader calls a SWATCH, a Southpaw With A Tight Changeup. These pitchers focus their gameplan around combining a solid four-seamer with a whiff-heavy slowball. Messick’s four-seamer is actually one of the better ones for his archetype. It sits around 94mph, which is faster than several of his contemporaries of similar prestige, like Trevor Rogers and Jeffrey Springs. It also comes in at a really flat angle, which makes it tough to hit if thrown at the top of the zone. Enough about that fastball, though, the changeup is the secret sauce. It carries a 30% swinging strike, which is just nuts, even if that is likely to regress a bit throughout the year. These two pitches paired are enough for him to find consistent success, especially against righty-heavy lineups. He also has a pretty complete arsenal, though, utilizing a strong sinker to lefties and sometimes incorporating curveballs, cutters, and sliders to keep batters on their toes. It’s a strong mix, and one that will make him a contender for AL Rookie of the Year and possibly even some down-ballot Cy Young votes.
Verdict: Legit. I cannot gush about Messick enough, especially as a big believer in the SWATCH types. He’s on a roll right now, and I dig the situation in Cleveland, a place that has been able to get the most out of several pitchers.
Carlos Cortes, OF, ATH
Yeah, this is pretty awesome. Carlos Cortes has been getting a lot of buzz, as many people probably hadn’t heard of him before the past couple of weeks. The 5’7 outfielder came up through the Mets system but didn’t show enough from a production standpoint to put him on anybody’s radar. He goes to the Athletics and becomes a new man, morphing into a slugger who excels at putting the ball into play. With the injury to Brent Rooker, Cortes has found himself hitting regularly in the Athletics‘ lineup, often in the number 3 hole.
A brief look at Cortes’ underlying data will show some absolutely absurd numbers. What do you mean he’s only striking out 5.7% of the time? At first glance, that sounds like the profile of someone who is projected to hit four home runs all year, not one who has four already. His walk rate is almost double his strikeout rate, a product of a low chase rate and an even lower swing-and-miss rate. While the bat speed isn’t anything to write home about, neither is that of a comparable 2026 breakout player: Sal Stewart. They get the home runs their way, and it’s hard to see either of them stopping. Our Process+ metric also buys into Cortes’ all-around dominance, as it rates him highly in the contact and power department, while also showing that he can be above-average in terms of decision making.
Verdict: Legit. Perhaps he may not be the second coming of Yordan Alvarez over the course of a full season, but I’m buying what Cortes is selling. He also plays in an environment that is perhaps the most hitter-friendly outside of Colorado, which makes him a must pick up if still available in your fantasy leagues.
Xavier Edwards, 2B, SS, CLE
Last week, I covered a Miami Marlins middle infielder with a slap-hitter reputation who is getting harder contact this year. This must feel like déjà vu, and it does to me, too. Yet, Xavier Edwards has had some great production as of late, and quietly is putting together one of the more well-rounded fantasy and real-life seasons. But will it last?
Looking at the rolling chart across the season, Edwards has continuously improved his overall process. We know the drill with him at a baseline level; the contact skills are always there, but the power isn’t. Lately, though, we have seen his power grade inch towards being league-average, while his contact skills have seen some minor improvement as well. Where the big jump can be seen is with his plate discipline. Edwards is chasing a lot less and, as a result, walking at an impressive clip. This has allowed him to be a .430 OBP guy, which is huge for on-base leagues. You also can’t forget about the potential for stolen bases, as in the past, he has nabbed bags at an elite clip, and I can’t see that changing if he gets on first at a higher rate than before. I always get a bit worried about these players who rely on quantity of contact to produce, as they can always run into bad BABIP luck, especially if they aren’t making good contact. Edwards’ improvements in the quality of contact department make it a possibility that he’s immune to this type of regression.
Verdict: Possibly Legit. We do see early-season performances like these, where non-power hitters hit the ball harder and put up better numbers across the board. These don’t always last, especially when the gains are still somewhat minimal. However, his improved approach does give us reason to be optimistic. Combine that with an interesting role in the Miami lineup (he’s batting cleanup!), and there’s an exciting player here.
