The baseball season always seems to be full of surprises, and this year is no exception. In fact, I’d argue we are seeing more surprises than before. Who would’ve thought the Rays would have the best record in baseball? Or that the White Sox would be formidable? Or that the Blue Jays and Mariners would be well below .500? Again, it’s early in the season, but it’s still shocking. With that said, oftentimes, these early-season oddities often see regression, both positive and negative. That’s why these articles exist. Are the players who are having serious breakout/bounceback seasons going to keep it going until the end of the year? Or is this just fool’s gold. I have three more players this week to analyze to see if they will continue on their trajectory.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, ARI
Who saw this one coming?
Nolan Arenado is without question a legend. He’s one of the best defensive third basemen of all time, and at his peak, he was a pretty darn good hitter too. He’s gotten MVP votes everywhere he’s gone, and now that he’s in Arizona, he’s hoping to continue that trend.
Arenado looked fine in his first month in the burgundy and teal. He sported a 111 wRC+ across March/April, which was certainly fine. I was surprised to see that it was his highest wRC+ in a month since August of 2024, so you definitely can’t say he was disappointing. He’s exploded in May, though, as at the time of writing he has a 162 wRC+ on the month. But is it sustainable? Maybe.
Arenado has always been one of the toughest players to project. It feels like when you expect him to regress, he improves. When you become confident in his abilities, he has a down year. He’s really consistent in the field, but not as much at the plate. He’s one of those players, similar to TJ Friedl, Isaac Paredes, and Jose Altuve, who challenge basic analytics knowledge. He hasn’t hit the ball super hard in years, as even in his MVP-worthy 2022, he had below-average exit velocities. Yet, the secret sauce is his ability to pull the ball in the air. He hasn’t hit a home run right of center since 2023, and as we know, hitters often generate more power on the pulled flyball. He currently has 7 homers, which puts him at a solid 25 homer pace, while he also has his best batting average and on-base percentage since 2022.
Verdict: Possibly Legit. Arenado has definitely proven himself to be someone you shouldn’t doubt. Even after a multi-year slump, it seems reasonable that he can bounce back in a fresh new environment. I think that he’s going to continue to excel in his role in the Arizona lineup, though the wRC+ likely won’t be above 130 for an entire year. But 115-120ish with good defense at the third base position is a valuable player, and I don’t think he will hurt fantasy teams.
Zack Gelof, 2B, 3B, OF, ATH
For this one, I want to give a special shoutout to @Light_Saberist in our PL+ Discord server, who brought to my attention that Zack Gelof is quietly having an awesome year. Well, awesome by his standards, as he is coming off two putrid seasons with bad production. He’s definitely looked more like an AAAA player than an MLB one coming into this year, well, apart from his 69-game rookie season in 2023, when he looked to be the next underrated power/speed threat in the game. With the injury to Max Muncy (no, not the Dodgers one), he’s gotten the chance to prove his worth at third base, and so far, so good.
In 2026, Gelof currently holds a 127 wRC+ to go with six homers, four steals, and a batting average just a hair below .270. It’s a really good year, especially for fantasy managers who gain his positional versatility. The Athletics lineup has been pretty dominant this year, with many of its players like Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz and Carlos Cortes putting up some of the best hitting stats in baseball this year. Gelof hits down the lineup quite often, so he isn’t necessarily going to be reaping the rewards of their production as often.
Verdict: Possibly Legit. Yeah, I’m not entirely sure about this one, though I am impressed that our Process+ metric rates him as above average in the major hitting skills. He’s clearly improving in certain areas, showcasing better contact skills and a bit more power than last year. It’s a step in the right direction, the question is if THIS big of an improvement is sustainable.
Jake Bauers, 1B, OF, MIL
Is the Jake Bauers breakout finally upon us?
He previously had mostly been known for being a piece in a really bad trade that brought Yandy Díaz to Tampa, and for being another Brewers scrappy reclamation project who hit above his prestige level when he joined the team.
Bauers is currently hitting .291/.360/.500 for a wRC+ of 139. This is a 25-point jump over last year, which was his highest wRC+ over a season until this year. Similar to Arenado, he had a good start in March/April, with a 113. He has boosted that significantly in May, as he has a 188 wRC+ mark on the month at the time of writing. He’s also hitting lefties and righties, something he hasn’t done in the past. This ability to find success against southpaws could be the key to him becoming an everyday player instead of just forming a platoon with Andrew Vaughn, who, funnily enough, was last year’s version of Bauers. Will the Brewers have a 1B breakout candidate every season?
Verdict: Legit. While he’s never looked like a great player before this, his batted ball profile is legit. He’s disciplined, chasing at an extremely low rate; he has tons of power, with 96th-percentile bat speed, and he’s making A LOT of contact in the zone. I think that he can be a borderline top 10 fantasy 1B, as he has a plethora of skills that often lead to great production.
