We’re nearly a quarter through the season. We can start to have more confidence in certain stats. They are no longer fluctuating wildly with each game. There may be opportunities in your leagues to pick up players off of waivers with unexpected, but legitimate hot starts. You may also be able to trade advantageously by looking at underlying numbers that are stabilizing.
Tyler Mahle, SP, Texas Rangers
Mahle is off to an excellent start this season. In 7 starts, he has 37.2 IP, a 1.19 ERA, .98 WHIP, and allowed just a .174 AVG. He is 30 years old and is in his 9th MLB season. His 2023-2024 seasons were severely limited due to Tommy John surgery. He’s had so few full seasons it’s difficult to say what his best season was, but I’d have to say it was 2020 when he had 9 starts, 47.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 29.9% K%. His 2023 numbers were a little better, but he only had 25.2 IP. Basically, he’s flashed the ability to be an above-average SP, but he’s never had a consistent run of it. Is 2025 the start of it?
Over the course of his career, his four-seamer has had a consistent usage of between 50-55%. He’s also thrown a splitter, slider, and cutter over the last 4 years, but their usage has fluctuated.
Nothing about the four-seamer’s stuff seems different. It continues to have good overall movement with 17.7″ iVB and 11.0″ iHB (80th percentile), but comes in at just 92.0 mph. It has a slightly above-average PLV and slightly below-average Stuff+. It does have a career-high 68.9% hiLoc% (90th percentile), but it’s not really the type of fastball that dominates there. The 13.0% SwStr% is strong, but is in line with his career norms. Its ICR is also a career-worst 47.2%.
There are some things to like about his splitter. It has a 95th percentile Zone%, but that likely contributes to its low SwStr% of just 10.9%.
The cutter’s usage is up to 11.7%, and it might be his best-performing pitch. It has a 14.3% SwStr% (80th percentile), 35.7% CSW% (92nd percentile), and 58.6% Zone% (84th percentile). However, its velocity, movement, spin, locations, and overall stuff are all in line with career norms.
Lastly, Mahle is using his slider just 9.3%, the lowest of his career. It has a terrible 3.6% SwStr%, 21.4% CSW%, and respectable 36.4% ICR (69th percentile). It has amongst the lowest movement of his career and also the lowest velocity, at just 83.0 mph. That’s not a good combination.
Verdict: Not Legit. I’m failing to see much difference in Mahle. His overall SwStr% is a strong 13.0% (80th percentile), but that is comparable to the rest of his career. His K% and K%-BB% are also amongst the worst of his career. He has yet to give up a HR this season, despite the fact that he gives up an average amount of Fly Balls, and his FB EV is 41st percentile. That won’t last. I expect him to revert to his serviceable, but inconsistent self.
Matthew Liberatore, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Liberatore is a 25-year-old SP and former top 100 prospect who is still trying to establish himself. Coming into this season, he had 182.1 IP, 24 Games Started, 4.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 18.9% K%, and 8.9% BB%. He spent most of last season as a RP, but still only had a 4.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 13.4% K-BB%.
This year, he is back to being a full-time SP. In 6 GS he has 34.0 IP, 3.44 ERA, .97 WHIP, 22.6% K%, and minuscule 2.3% BB%. That’s the 2nd-lowest BB% amongst qualified starters.
He’s decreased his fastball usage throughout his career, in favor of his slider and changeup. His slider is now his most-used pitch at 27.4%. It’s a good one. It has a 5.31 PLV and 112 Stuff+. It also has a strong 22.6% SwStr%, 37.6% CSW%, 60.0% GB%, and has never given up a HR on it despite throwing 712 of them. He’s increased the iVB on it this year by 1.4″. Regardless of LHB or RHB, he really pounds in down and glove side. It has a 67.7% gLoc% and a 108 plvLoc+.
His changeup isn’t anything special. He primarily uses it to keep hitters off his three fastballs. All of his fastballs grade out as slightly below average, and the outcomes are similar.
Lastly, he has greatly reduced his curveball usage over the last two years. He used to throw it nearly 25% of the time, but now it’s down to 9%. PLV and Stuff+ both like it and it gets a lot of vertical break, but, other than an 80% GB%, its outcomes are middling.
Verdict: Legit. Liberatore came up with a reputation as a wide arsenal command pitcher, and it seems like that’s what he’s become in MLB. He throws all 6 of his pitches consistently and has a 104 Location+. If he didn’t have the reputation as a command specialist, I’d say he was just in a good groove, but this is more believable to me. I wouldn’t expect him to be much better than that 22.6% K%, and that 2.3% BB% is sure to come up, but not much.
Javier Báez, SS/OF, Detroit Tigers
Coming into this season, I would’ve never guessed I would be writing about Javier Báez. From 2022-2024, he had a .221/.262/.347 slash, and 70 wRC+ in 1,426 PA. And each of those seasons was worse than the previous. Then he started to transition to CF this year. In 100 PA, he has a .309/.350/.479 slash and 139 wRC+. At 32 years old, has the move to CF suddenly revitalized him?
No.
Source: Baseball Savant
Verdict: Not Legit. This largely seems to be based on batted ball luck. He has a .382 BABIP, .247 xAVG, .319 xWOBA, and a near career-worst Barrel Rate of just 4.2%. This is combined with declining Bat Speed and Sprint Speed. He is displaying slightly better Plate Discipline, but his O-Swing% is still just 6th percentile. Best-case scenario, he ends up with a season similar to 2022 when he had an 89 wRC+, but nothing like the Cubs portion of his career.
Ben Rice, 1B/DH, New York Yankees
Rice is 26 years old and was viewed as a middling prospect. He had average Hit and Power tool grades and was given just a 30 Field tool by FanGraphs. In 173 PA last year, he started off hot, but after the book got around on him, he ended up with a 73 wRC+. With his lack of defensive value and average Sprint Speed, that is not a Big Leaguer.
He is off to a phenomenal start this year. In 119 PA, he has a .255/.361/.559 triple slash, 25.2% K%, 11.8% BB%, and 161 wRC+. That slugging and astounding .304 ISO really stand out. In the offseason, he talked about adding muscle, and it shows in his big jump in Bat Speed. Last year, it was about average at 71.4 mph, but now it is up to 74.6 mph (88th percentile), and he has a 48.0% Fast Swing Rate. The league average Fast Swing Rate is 22.8%.
His 19.7% Brl% is 97th percentile, Max EV 92nd percentile, FB EV 89th percentile, xwOBA 92nd percentile, and ICR 79th percentile.
Process+ also likes what he’s done.
Verdict: Somewhat Legit. While he did run high ISOs in the minors, there’s no way he’ll maintain that .304 ISO. He has a 53.3% HR/FB%. There is a lot to like about what he’s doing, and I haven’t found any real weaknesses. I think he’ll continue to be a strong source of HR, RBI, and R, just not at his current pace.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
