We’re nearly halfway through the season. Most numbers have become meaningful and stable. They are no longer fluctuating wildly with each game. There may be opportunities in your leagues to pick up players off of waivers with unexpected, but legitimate hot starts. You may also be able to trade advantageously by looking at underlying numbers that have stabilized.
J.P. Crawford, SS, Seattle Mariners
Crawford is a 30-year-old veteran in his ninth MLB season. Throughout his career, he has been thought of as a high-floor, low-ceiling fantasy SS who won’t put up big power or speed numbers, but will play a lot. Coming into this year, he had 3,232 PA, a .245/.338/.368 slash, 18.6% K rate, 11.4% BB rate, and 104 wRC+. So far in 314 PA this year, he has a .291/.407/.398 slash, 17.5% K rate, 15.9% BB rate, and 142 wRC+. Has he made big changes?
2023 was the best year of his career when he had a 136 wRC+ in 638 PA. He’s always had a strong BB%, but that year it was up to 14.7%. He also had a near career-best .172 ISO. This year, he has an even better BB% of 16.2%, but his .107 ISO is more in line with most of his career. His Bat Speed has also dropped from 71.9 mph each of the last two years to 70.9 mph. His Barrel% is nothing special at 4.7%, and nothing has changed regarding his FB% or Pull%. In 2023, he had a career-high 22.0% Pull Air%, but this year it is just 15.3%. Basically, when it comes to power, he’s the same guy he’s always been.
Source: FanGraphs
LD% is notoriously noisy. His career LD% coming into this year was 22.4%. This year it is 28.5%. It is likely to regress to the mean, and when it does, that wOBA is sure to drop.
Verdict: Not Legit. Crawford continues to have above-average plate discipline, but his power is non-existent and his career-high .290 AVG is primarily supported by an abnormally high LD%. He should remain a decent source of AVG, OBP, and playing time going forward, but I doubt a repeat of his 2023 is likely.
Ernie Clement, 2B/3B/SS, Toronto Blue Jays
At 29, Clement is several years older than I expected. He came up with Cleveland in 2021, but prior to last year, he had a total of 364 PA. It’s hard to put much stock in such scattered playing time, but he did have just a 63 wRC+ over that period. In 452 PA last year, he had a .263/.284/.408 slash, 9.1% K rate, 2.4% BB rate, and 94 wRC+. Based on those K and BB numbers, I’m assuming he is a free-swinger. His Swing% is 54.9%, which is the 91st percentile. I would’ve expected it to be even higher than that, but we get the point. In 261 PA this year, he has a .307/.337/.422 slash, 11.1% K rate, 4.2% BB rate, and 115 wRC+. Is he a lesser version of Steven Kwan?
Power is not a part of his game. A .117 ISO, 1.9% Barrel rate, 108.9 mph Max EV, and 67.0 mph Bat Speed exemplify that. Despite an 83rd percentile Sprint Speed, he has just two SB this year. To be a productive fantasy player, he must be a reliable source of AVG and/or OBP. He certainly has been so far, but can this be relied on going forward?
He has displayed elite Contact Ability, and his 85.0% Contact rate is 93rd percentile. His xBA and xBABIP are also well above average.
Verdict: Legit. As long as you’re not expecting anything other than Batting Average, Clement can help you. He swings far too frequently to walk much, however. In Yahoo!, he is 2B/3B/SS eligible. If you’re looking for some INF depth to help you AVG, Clement is your guy. He is available in 80% of Yahoo! leagues. Just don’t spend much on him.
Hunter Goodman, C/OF/ Colorado Rockies
Coming into this year, Goodman was little thought of except by a few analysts. That’s because he had just 301 PA, a .192/.233/.409 slash and 59 wRC+. He was the Rockies’ fourth-ranked prospect according to FanGraphs, but was not inside the Top 100. They gave him a 45+ FV, 30/35 Hit, 45/60 Game Power, 70/70 Raw Power, and 30/30 Speed. This year in 302 PA, he has a .284/.328/.514 slash, 26.8% K rate, 5.3% BB rate, and 119 wRC+.
There is no doubt he has the power to succeed. In addition to those prospect grades, he has a 116.2 Max EV this year, 11.9% Brl rate, 52.0% Hard Hit rate, .230 ISO, and his 74.2 mph Bat Speed is well above average. As is so often the case, his outcomes depend on his contact ability.
It’s been trending downward, despite an uptick in production over the last month. However, its season average is just a bit below the league average. That might be enough for him. Let’s take a look at his plate discipline.
His Decision Value has been atrocious.
Those metrics are also bad.
Verdict: Not Legit. Having catcher eligibility and getting a bunch of playing time should continue to make him a valuable fantasy catcher. However, I think his poor contact ability and plate discipline will cause him to be very streaky.
