We’re over halfway through the season. Most numbers have become meaningful and stable. They are no longer fluctuating wildly with each game. There may be opportunities in your leagues to pick up players off of waivers with unexpected, but legitimate hot starts. You may also be able to trade advantageously by looking at underlying numbers that have stabilized.
Ceddanne Rafaela, SS/OF, Boston Red Sox
Ceddanne Rafaela is a 24-year-old utility player for the Boston Red Sox in his second full MLB season. Throughout his short career, he had been living up to his prospect pedigree. He was widely thought of as an elite, versatile defender with a limited bat. FanGraphs gave him a 30/40 Hit, 35/45 Game Power, 40/45 Raw Power, 70/70 Speed, and 70/80 Field. Prior to May 26 this year he totalled 844 PA, a .240/.275/.376 slash, a 25.5% K%, a minute 3.4% BB%, and a 76 wRC+. 29 SB over that period were helpful, but he simply did not get on base enough to really use his speed.
However, in 169 PA since May 26 he’s had a .317/.345/.621 slash, 17.8% K%, 3.6% BB%, and 161 wRC+. What’s changed?
Rafaela has always been known as a free swinger. In each of the last two seasons, he’s had the 2nd-highest Swing%, and in 2024, he had the highest O-Swing%. Fortunately for him, he has good contact ability, allowing him to keep his K% palatable. However, he has below-average Bat Speed and has always posted low ISOs. Because of this, he needs to put the ball in play more. In order to do that he needs to improve his Plate Discipline.
In 2024, he had a 69.9% Contact%, and this year it is up to 75.5% (40th percentile).
He has become a bit less aggressive. Last year he had a Swing Aggression of about 14% and this year it is down to 11%. However, what is really driving his improved contact numbers are his Swing Decisions.
He hasn’t exactly become Juan Soto, but he has definitely shown improvement in his Strike Zone Judgment. This has led to an improvement in his overall Decision Values.
Verdict: Somewhat legit. While Rafaela has made improvements in his plate decisions, he has only gone from putrid to below average. Free swingers like him tend to be streaky, and he is probably in the midst of a hot stretch. That said, he has certainly improved, will get a ton of PA because of his defensive abilities, and may continue to improve his plate discipline. He would be a valuable bench addition to most fantasy teams.
Zach Neto, SS, Los Angeles Angels
Neto was a prospect who was expected to be decent at all aspects. FanGraphs gave him a 50 FV, 50/55 Hit, 40/50 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, 55/55 Speed, and 50/50 Field. They also rated him as their 66th overall prospect in 2023. He had a very solid 2024. In 602 PA, he posted a .249/.318/.443 slash, 23.3% K%, 6.5% BB%, 23 HR, 30 SB, and a 115 wRC+. In 344 PA so far this year it has been more of the same, but he’s really taken off recently. In 73 PA since July 2, he’s had a .333/.397/.530 slash and 157 wRC+. Is he taking his game to another level?
In 2024, Neto had a solid, but not stellar, 8.4% Barrel%. The MLB average is 7.1%. this year it is way up to 14.2%. That’s 86th percentile. His ISO is also up from .194 to .207, that’s 81st percentile.
Plate Discipline has never really been an issue for Neto, but he has also improved upon that this year also.
His Decision Value has been declining recently, but his season average is up about 17 points from 2024.
Perhaps the most stark change he’s made is his Swing Path (Tilt). It has notably increased this year. That isn’t inherently a good thing for every player, but it often leads to more barrels.
Verdict: Legit, but not superstar legit. There is no doubt Neto is a great player who has continued to show improvement this year. However, his hot streak of the last three weeks seems to be largely driven by an unsustainable increase in Line Drive%. He should continue to be a great player, but I don’t expect his superstar-level performance of the last few weeks to remain for the rest of 2025. Given his age and ability to improve, that may be in his future, though.
Alec Burleson, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals
In 1,087 PA prior to May 1, 2025, Alec Burlseon had a .256/.306/.393 slash, a 13.3% K%, a 6.3% BB%, and 94 wRC+. Now he’s just 26 years old, but that’s not a useful 1B/OF in fantasy. He displayed the OK Hit and Powers tools he was expected to have with a .256 Avg and 30 HR, but you need more from those positions. Maybe he was never going to be a useful fantasy player in most formats.
In 237 PA after May 1 this season he he’s hit 12 HR with a .307/.353/.540 slash, .233 ISO, 11.4% K%, 7.2% BB%, and 148 wRC+. That wRC+ is 17th best in baseball over that period. What really stands out to me is his 96-point increase in ISO. He’s seemingly made a concerted effort to hit the ball in the air more, starting this Spring.
At no point in his career has he shown such a consistent increase in Launch Angle. He’s also combined this with a steadily increasing Bat Speed.
That combination leads to a big increase in xwOBA.
Verdict: Legit. Burleson has maintained (and even improved) his K%, while improving his Bat Speed and hitting more Fly Balls. This has led to a direct increase in power.
It’s certainly possible he could revert to old habits of hitting the ball on the ground too much, but these changes have occurred over a fairly long period, so I’d expect them to stick around.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
