The calendar has flipped to July, and the Midsummer Classic is nearly upon us. The All-Star break can be a good time for struggling players to rest and reset, but those who are on hot streaks would probably prefer to just keep the games coming. As you would expect in the “Is It Legit?” series, both of the players I am breaking down today fit that description. Each profiled player will be sorted into one of the following categories: “not legit,” “probably not legit,” “possibly legit,” and “legit.” All stats are through the games of Monday, July 7.
Otto Lopez, 2B/SS, MIA
Last 30 days: 113 PA, .375/.407/.644 (181 wRC+), 24 R, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 7 SB
2026: 383 PA, .346/.376/.520 (143 wRC+), 59 R, 9 HR, 43 RBI, 17 SB
Just like we all expected before the season, Otto Lopez is leading Luis Arraez by 20 points in the race for the NL batting average title while also ranking fourth in MLB in at-bats. Lopez has become a full-time shortstop this year after starting at both middle infield spots in 2025, and his offensive game has taken off. With the Marlins’ lineup back at full strength, Lopez hits third against righties and leads off against lefties, offering ample run-scoring and run-producing opportunities in a Marlins offense that is above-average in both wRC+ (103) and runs scored (418).
When you take a look at Lopez’s Process+ chart for the season, it shows a story of remarkable consistency. The contact skills have always been and continue to be plus, with his zone contact rate of 91.1% ranking in the 91st percentile. The swing decisions are typically neutral, if not slightly negative, thanks to Lopez’s below average 33.6% chase rate (35th percentile). The newer development is the power also being a slight positive. Lopez’s barrel rate (7.4%) is still roughly average, but his hard-hit rate is 43.4%, the first time in his career he’s posted an above average mark. Because he only strikes out 13.3% of the time, Lopez is able to get to enough game power with middling raw power. One thing that puts a cap on his power potential is a tendency to not pull the ball in the air. His current mark of 12.9% is a career best, but it’s still well below the MLB average of 16.8%.
Verdict: Possibly legit. To me, the story with Lopez is as much about his improvement as a hitter as it is about the Marlins’ lineup. The team has a decent offense for the first time in years, and it’s allowing accumulators like Lopez and Liam Hicks to maximize their fantasy value. Without a strong supporting cast, Lopez wouldn’t have this many plate appearances and be scoring runs at an elite rate. At the same time, he’s earned a premium lineup spot by virtue of his own performance. There will be both batting average and power regression here, but even still, Lopez can be close to a five-category player with this skillset. I see him as a true talent .275-.290 hitter who can hit 15 homers and steal 30 bases while scoring a bunch of runs. That’s reminiscent of Brice Turang, albeit with less power but probably a better hit tool. Both are poised to be elite options at the keystone for the remainder of 2026, though Lopez will probably be SS only next year.
Trevor Rogers, SP, BAL
Last six starts (since 6/4): 35.2 IP, 4 W, 27 Ks, 1.77 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
2026: 84.1 IP (16 GS), 6 W, 65 Ks, 4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Rogers is the first player I’ve featured this year who is having a poor season on the whole. He’s struggled mightily to find success after 109.2 IP in 2025 with a sparkling 1.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 17.5% K-BB%. Maybe Rogers just doesn’t get going until the summer. All but one of his major league starts last year came after May, and his heater this year kicked off with his first start of June. During this six-start stretch, four of Rogers’ opponents (@BOS, @LAD, WSN, @CIN) have ranked in the top 10 in wRC+ against lefties.
In the last three starts specifically, the biggest difference has been Rogers leaning slightly more on his four-seamer while throwing the pitch at an average of 94.5 MPH, a tick harder than his season average. The whiffs on the pitch have followed. Over his last six starts, Rogers has gotten 40 whiffs on 250 four-seamers, good for an elite 16% swinging strike rate. While the fastball continues to perform well, the rest of Rogers’ arsenal is lackluster. He doesn’t have a single pitch that grades above a 5.16 PLV, and he struggles to find a reliable third offering against righties to pair with his fastball and change-up. As a result, he’s allowed a poor .341 wOBA and 7.4% K-BB% to opposite-handed hitters. These platoon splits have persisted over the course of his career but are worse in 2026.
Verdict: Possibly legit. The verdict here depends on what your baseline expectation is for Rogers. He was always going to regress substantially from his excellent 2025, but his season-long line in 2026 has actively hurt your team. When I say that his hot streak is possibly legit, what I mean is that he should be a solid Toby for you from here on out. The strikeouts still haven’t been there for Rogers over this stretch; his 11.5% K-BB% is hardly better than his 10% mark over the entire season. I would expect Rogers to meaningfully improve on his lackluster ratios as the season goes on, but my expectation going forward for him is one with limited upside: an ERA just below 4.00, a WHIP between 1.20 and 1.25, and a strikeout rate between 20% and 22%. If people in your league are writing him off completely, he’s worth an add even if the ace or SP2 upside isn’t there right now.
