It’s officially crunch time for teams across MLB and our fantasy teams alike. There’s less than a quarter of the season remaining, and for those of us in head-to-head leagues, just a couple of weeks until the playoffs. We’ve also had just over a month of games since the All-Star break, making now a good time to analyze a couple of strong performers since play resumed after the Midsummer Classic. One featured player today has done well all season with especially strong performance in the last month while the other has completely turned things around. Each player I examine will be sorted into one of the following categories: “not legit,” “probably not legit,” “possibly legit,” and “legit.” All stats are through the games of Monday, August 17:
Alec Burleson, 1B/OF, STL
Post-ASB (since 7/16): 132 PA, .339/.409/.568 (168 wRC+), 22 R, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 0 SB
2026: 530 PA, .289/.355/.493 (133 wRC+), 71 R, 21 HR, 92 RBI, 3 SB
After plating two in the first game of Monday’s doubleheader split with the Reds, Burleson is now the league leader in RBI, narrowly edging out Yordan Alvarez (88) and a trio of exciting NL youngsters in CJ Abrams (91), Sal Stewart (91), and teammate Jordan Walker (88). While Walker, a former top prospect and this year’s Home Run Derby Champion, has gotten more praise for revitalizing his career, Burleson has actually been the Cardinals’ best hitter. Since scuffling to a 56 wRC+ during his debut cup of coffee in 2022, he’s been the picture of incremental improvement at the plate. His wRC+ numbers over his five big-league seasons are as follows: 56, 89, 106, 124, and 133.
Looking specifically at the last three seasons, we can clearly see the incremental improvements that Burleson has made. From 2024 to 2025, he added a little bit of bat speed (1.2 MPH) while swinging much less and maintaining an excellent zone contact rate. Greater selectivity and improved bat speed allowed him to barrel the ball up more often. But, the increase in his ISO (.152 to .169) was meager, perhaps because he was still pulling the ball in the air at a below average rate. From 2025 to 2026, Burleson again gained 1.2 MPH of bat speed while increasing his average attack angle three degrees. He has trended slightly back towards his free-swinging ways and is whiffing a little bit more, but the tradeoff for more power has been worth it. He’s absolutely pummeling the ball in the air (94.4 MPH FB EV, 92nd percentile) and generating way more pulled air contact than ever before, allowing him to post a career-best .203 ISO. Burleson’s 21 homers are also equal to his career high, and he’s got more than a month to set a new bar. Tons of hard contact combined with a solidly below average K rate also allows Burleson to hit for a consistently good batting average. In fact, his .282 mark from 2024-2026 is 15th among qualified hitters during that span. His 139 Process+ this season has him in a tie for 4th with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Now that’s some good company.
Verdict: Legit. Nothing in Burleson’s profile suggests that his improvement is a fluke, and the 25-homer power should be here to stay now that he’s managed to turn more of his contact into pulled fly balls. The Cardinals’ offense is hardly Murderer’s Row, but between Burleson, Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, and potentially Joshua Báez, their offensive core is intact and should continue to produce ample opportunities for run production. The only things keeping Burleson from becoming an elite fantasy producer are his struggles against lefties (64 career wRC+ vs. LHP, 52 in 2026) and that he is set to lose OF eligibility for the 2027 season. I wouldn’t consider him in the top 50 next season, but I’m open to taking him in the top 100.
Brandon Pfaadt, SP, ARI
Post-ASB: 39 IP (6 GS), 4 W, 20 Ks, 0.92 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
2026: 92.2 IP (22 appearances, 12 GS), 7 W, 61 Ks, 3.11 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Since his return from the minor leagues on June 30, Pfaadt has fully leaned into unpredictability. He’s featured all six of his pitches (four-seamer, sinker, cutter, sweeper, change-up, and curveball) in every single outing besides one since coming back to the big leagues and has thrown a single offering more than 40% of the time just once, when he featured his four-seamer 43% of the time against the Padres on August 3rd. To the extent that someone with this varied of a repertoire can have a go-to offering, it’s the change-up for Pfaadt. He’s leaning on it more than ever before, throwing it 23.7% of the time during the second half. It’s actually been his primary offering in three of his last four outings. The pitch’s movement profile is virtually the same as it was in previous seasons, but the key is that he’s locating it better than ever before. Pfaadt’s cambio has a a 77.4% loLoc% (90th percentile) and 49.6% quality pitch rate (92nd percentile), indicating that he’s consistently executing at a high level with the pitch.
On the other hand, where have the whiffs gone?! Pfaadt used to be someone who was a steady source of strikeouts with serious ratio risk, yet now he is posting pristine ratios with an awful K rate (13.5% post-ASB, 14.4% since 6/30). Though Pfaadt may be content to let the Diamondbacks’ consistently excellent defense take care of all these balls in play, the dam is going to break at some point. Among 60 qualified pitchers since 6/30, Pfaadt ranks 10th in BABIP (.237), 11th in strand rate (86.1%), and 1st in HR/FB% at a microscopic 1.6%. Despite being 1st in ERA among those 60 arms, he’s 44th in SIERA. That’s not tenable even for someone showing all the signs of a Vargas Rule.
Verdict: Probably not legit. This new approach from Pfaadt is saving his career as a viable starting pitcher, but with so few strikeouts, the fantasy floor and ceiling are too low for me to get excited about. I would be holding and starting him until I see a bad outing or two, but it’s unreasonable to expect both his good fortune and high level of execution to continue into 2027.
