The end of the regular season is in sight. Maybe we can find a guy or two to get you over the hump in your league. We’ll be looking at under-the-radar guys who have been hot recently.
Cam Schlittler, SP, New York Yankees
Cam Schlittler is a 24-year-old rookie who made his MLB debut on July 9. FanGraphs ranked him as the Yankees’ 2nd prospect and 48th overall. They gave him a 50 FV, 60/60 Fastball, 40/45 Slider, 50/60 Curveball, 40/45 Cutter, and 40/45 Command. In 11 starts, he has thrown 56.0 IP, has a 3.05 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 26.7% K%, and 10.2% BB%. The WHIP and BB% are a little high, but overall, those are strong numbers for a rookie. However, in 6 starts since August 13, he has thrown 31.1 IP, has a 2.01 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 31.2% K%, and 9.6% BB%. Can we expect similar numbers next season?
Those starts came against the Twins, Rays, Nationals, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Tigers. A couple of so-so offenses, a couple of poor ones, and a couple of good ones, although he got hit hard by Toronto.
The velo on his most used pitch certainly stands out, but not so much the other metrics.
Overall, stuff-wise, I’d consider it a slightly above-average pitch. However, his results have not been slightly above average.
Here is the list of pitchers that have thrown at least 300 four-seamers (Schlittler has thrown 550), with a SwStr% of at least 14.0%, and a GB% greater than 35%:
Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet, Jacob Misiorowski, George Kirby, and Cam Schlittler. Schlittler and Kirby are the only 2 with a GB% greater than 36.2%. And Kirby’s four-seamer only has a 28% usage. Ideally, a pitch is hit as little as often (assuming it has a decent Zone%-Schlittler’s is 53.3%), and when contact is made, damage is reduced by being on the ground. Perhaps I’m guilty of adding too many qualifiers, but, based on how often he throws it, an argument could be made that Schlittler has had the best-performing four-seamer in baseball.
These outcomes seem to be largely based on his proclivity to throw it up and in to RHB, especially. It has a 60.0% (81st percentile) hiLoc% and 44.5% (85th percentile) ArmSideLoc%. It’s odd that a high fastballs would induce so many groundballs. That is beyond me to explain. Maybe it won’t last. However, his GB% throughout the minors was similar to what he is doing now.
Source: Baseball Savant
Now, over his recent hot stretch, he has a 0% HR/FB%, which obviously won’t continue. However, when you throw a pitch so much that gives up so few Fly Balls, you’re of course going to give up fewer home runs.
Schlittler’s pitch usage has been pretty steady, so I don’t think any pitch mix changes have caused his recent hot stretch.
Like many young pitchers, he is still figuring out how to use his secondaries. He uses his cutter a bit more against RHB than LHB, but it’s similar. It gets mixed results. More or less ditto for his sinker. It’s hard to argue with his fastball usage. His four-seamer has been so effective I wouldn’t want him to throw it less, but the sinker and cutter give him different weapons to keep hitters off guard and follow the trend of having three fastballs.
His curveball has a 14% overall usage, but 21.6% vs LHB. It is his primary secondary against them. Against them, it has a 12.7% SwStr% (57th percentile, 27.1% CSW% (23rd percentile), and a 69.6% GB% (90th percentile). It’s 83.1 mph, which is 90th percentile, but otherwise does not stand out stuff-wise. Like his other offspeed, he could do a better job keeping it low. It’s 65.3% loLoc% is 53rd percentile. If he kept it lower, it might have a better SwStr%.
His sweeper seems to have a lot of potential, but he has poor command of it. He basically doesn’t throw it vs. LHB, and it has just a 6.3% usage vs. RHB. As can be seen above, both Stuff+ and PLV love it. It’s 87.7 mph, which is 99th percentile, but it still manages 30th percentile Total Break. The problem is he can’t get it down.
Because of this, it has allowed a .500 AVG, .689 wOBA, and has just a 7.1% SwStr% and 21.4% CSW%. Compounding this, he simply can’t trust it enough to get a better feel for it. Perhaps an offseason will allow him to work on it more.
Verdict: Legit. Cam Schlittler has such a good four-seamer that leads to a lot of whiffs and groundballs that his floor and his ceiling are high. There is definitely room for improvement if he can command his sweeper better. He would be very tough on RHB then. His four-seamer and just-good-enough secondaries allow him to combat LHB. An area of concern for me is that he seems to be very velocity-dependent. If it drops some, his results may decline exponentially. Of course, you can never rely on a pitcher’s health, but Schlittler is a big, strong guy in his physical prime.
Harrison Bader, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Bader has become a journeyman, but has been surprisingly good this year for the Twins and Phillies. In 446 PA, he has a .288/.361/.472 slash, 26.7% K%, 8.1% BB%, and 132 wRC+. Since being traded to the Phillies at the deadline, he has really taken off. In 139 PA, he has a .352/.410/.544 slash, 27.3% K%, 6.5% BB%, and 164 wRC+. That’s the 7th best in baseball over that span. Guys generally don’t take off at age 31, but maybe?
Bader has seen a big jump in his Bat Speed. In 2023, it was 70.9 mph, last year 71.2 mph, and this year it is 73.5 mph. He’s gone from below average to the 70th percentile.
His 9.4% Barrel% is the highest it’s been since 2020, when it was 11.9%. Most of his other power metrics are up, too. Max EV, Hard Hit%,wOBA, xWOBA, xwOBACON, ISO, and Fly Ball EV are all the highest they’ve been in years. Conversely, he is striking out the most he has since 2020.
Verdict: Legit. This one is surprisingly simple. While it is rare for a 31-year-old to increase his Bat Speed as much as he has, Bader is so athletic that he has made it happen. Because of this, his power metrics are up nearly across the board. His 26.7% K% is a bit high, but I think it is worth the trade-off. It’s difficult to expect this to last much longer due to his age, but he could be a late-round steal in drafts next season.
Daylen Lile, OF, Washington Nationals
To be honest, I had never heard of Daylen Lile, and, considering FanGraphs rated him as the Nationals’ #5 prospect and outside the Top 100 overall, I’m guessing he was largely unknown outside of the Nationals’ fanbase. He is 22 years old, and FanGraphs gave him a 45 FV, 40/55 Hit, 40/45 Game Power, 40/50 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, and 30/40 Field. Given full playing time since he came up on May 23, he has 306 PA, a .288/.339/.457 slash, 16.3% K%, 6.2% BB%, and 120 wRC+. In 258 PA since June 19, he has a .311/.362/.477 slash, 15.9% K%, 6.6% BB%, and 133 wRC+. That wRC+ is good for 34th in baseball over that period and is tied with Junior Caminero and Jazz Chisholm Jr. How has he been outperforming expectations by so much?
His 69.1 mph Bat Speed is well below the MLB average of 71.7 mph. He must be making a lot of contact and using his speed, right? His Sprint Speed is 91st percentile, so that 60 Speed grade seems a bit low. His Whiff% and Contact% are both 83rd percentile, and his 9.7% SwStr% is 74th percentile. Good, but not great.
He also makes good, but not great swing decisions.
Verdict: Somewhat Legit. At first, I was going to label this as “Not Legit.” His success seems to be based largely on his 99th percentile LD%. That’s usually an inconsistent metric. However, Lile has consistently had high LD% and BABIPs throughout the minors. Combine that with his very high Sweet Spot% and well-above average speed, and I can see him being a consistent source of AVG, OBP, Runs, and SB the next few years. I think that 120 wRC+ is a bit unsustainable, but I think he can outperform his prospect grades.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
