A popular Top 25 SP pick in the preseason, Kyle Hendricks hasn’t fulfilled his end of the bargain, most recently going 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks against the Cardinals last night. That’s two straight clunkers, raising his ERA to 4.09 for the year with a 3.06 BB/9. Now, before those two clunkers was a six game stretch of 1.96 ERA, though looking through those outings displays more of the same: 3.87 xFIP, 86.6% LOB rate, .250 BABIP, 32.0% hard contact and just a 48.5% groundball rate, which is much lower than we expect from Hendricks. And this is when he was producing! He’s going to be taking a significant hit in rankings later today as he’s the latest of the premium starting pitchers to disappoint owners.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Jeff Hoffman – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. I considered leading with Hoffman today (My Name’s Jeff) but I can sum this one up pretty quickly. Hoffman is a solid arm who would be my #2 in Colorado if he stays. I still wouldn’t trust him inside Coors with propensity for Four-Seamers that could dictate a high flyball rate, but he’s someone I’d play the schedule with. Heading to Wrigley next time out? No thanks. Thanks for being dope against the Padres, though. Streamer Record 29-19-8.
Ariel Miranda – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. You’re probably considering adding Miranda. I wouldn’t. 4.28 FIP/4.65 xFIP to go with that 3.74 ERA, 3.21 BB/9, and a 8.15 K/9 I just don’t trust. This is a Panda, not a Toby.
Zach Davies – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Whoa, Davies is waking up! He’s a groundhog though and will run back into his hole for six more weeks of winter after this. So you’re not buying Davis? Buying him what, dinner? Definitely not, it’s just one date!
Brad Peacock – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Great to see Peacock lasting through six innings as he continued expressing his strikeout upside while keeping the walks and baserunners down. For those unaware, I made a bet with our Podcast host Alex Fast that Peacock would get at least 4 QS this season. Three to go…
Luis Severino – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. The dude is simply killing it. Just two starts under 6 Ks all season. 2.90 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 2.86 xFIP. 54.5% groundball rate, 16.3% HR/FB. 28.0% hard contact. I am so tempted to give him the label, but it really is just 11 starts. And that is too early, right?
Sonny Gray – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Ehhhh I want to be a fan of this, but my biggest concern for Gray is his command and three walks tells me that he’s still struggling to throw his Two-Seamer and breaking balls for strikes. I recommend reading my piece on him for Jonah Keri’s The Ten over the weekend for more detail on this.
Trevor Williams – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. You’re not buying into this, right? Good.
Marcus Stroman – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. I will most definitely take this from Stroman, though it is very much like what I expect from him these days. With a start like this, you feel like it can go either way as well, which is often the case for a guy with just four strikeouts to his name. I think you can see how this blurb is dripping with meh.
Chris Sale – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I’m a little annoyed by the constant 2/3/4 ER games from Sale and want to see more straight up dominance, but I’ll certainly take this and his…1.82 FIP.
Tanner Roark – 7.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. With a schedule that included O.Co, AT&T Park, PIT, and the Phillies twice, you’d think Roark would have an ERA better than 3.86 at the end of it. But nope, that’s just who he is. The most lame Toby of them all.
Jose Berrios – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Sure, I’ll take it. Obviously we want a strikeout explosion, but a respectable six innings does good work as well.
Kenta Maeda – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Wait, Maeda couldn’t last past the fourth inning?! You don’t say…This wasn’t even Roberts’ doing either as Kenta had already accrued 92 pitches in 12 outs. Yeesh.
Ricky Nolasco – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Whoa, Hughes would jealous of that K/BB!
David Holmberg – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. The ChiSox are testing the reliever-to-starter trend that is sweeping the league with all these injuries, but I don’t expect Holmberg to have the same success as others.
Trevor Bauer – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. No, this isn’t an injury, just a rain-shortened start. Womp womp.
Jeremy Hellickson – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Wait, eight combined walks and strikeouts?! Hellickson, I’m so proud of you! But wait, he had four walks in there. Small steps…small steps…
Chris Tillman – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. You can’t spell Win with Tillman. On the real, Chris is struggling and I’m not holding out for this.
Jarred Cosart – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. His name backwards reads Trasoc Derraj. I have no idea why I find this exceptional or why I did it for Cosart, but there it is. Maybe because there is nothing interesting to say about Derraj?
Tyler Pill – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. This might be hard for Tyler to swallow, but he’ll be gone when Matz returns next week.
Erasmo Ramirez – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. This is what I’m expecting from Erasmo somewhat regularly, making him not someone I want to own.
Justin Verlander – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. This is starting to turn really bad here as Verlander left with 72 pitches thrown through just two frames. They said there was a “precautionary injury”, which I don’t really buy. It’s super tough being a Verlander owner at this point and I have to push him to the 30s today. It’s getting too late into the season now to keep waiting for him to bounce back. I think he’s a great buy-low for the second half, but for now it’s hard to endure.
Braden Shipley – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Shipley has had command issues plenty in his career. Don’t expect him to right…what’s wrong in future starts.
Eric Skoglund – 2.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. This is a pretty clear Cup of Schmo, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t want Skoglund to have a breakout season, forcing people to say Skoglund often. Skoglund.
Matt Moore – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. With Matty, I have to be the man in Oliver Twist people know about, but don’t actually know his name. That would be the guy denying little Ollie his extra helping. Please sir, may I have some Moore? DEFINITELY NOT.
Vance Worley – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Ha, Worley.
Michael Wacha – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. I still actually like Wacha, just not him facing the Cubs or Dodgers. Solid buy low opportunity here as he gets the Phils, Brewers, Phils, Pirates next.
Martin Perez – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. You know how you root for Martin sometimes on The Simpsons, but the rest of the time you just shake your head…Dude…no…
Julio Teheran – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 11 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Don’t wait for this to get better. There has to be a better option for you on the wire.
Amir Garrett – 2.2 IP, 8 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. Yeeeeep. This is what I’ve been expecting since April from Garrett. Welcome back from the DL, buddy.
Joe Musgrove David Paulino vs Kansas City Royals – Not much to choose from here, so I’m going with a meh pitcher with decent upside against one of the worst offenses around. Paulino is getting the start instead and for the same reasons as with Musgrove, I’d roll with him above the other choices.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Mike Foltynewicz vs Philadelphia Phillies – Somehow his ownage percentage dropped after a 10 strikeout performance against the Reds, but there it is. I don’t love this start – I hate how hot/cold Folty is – but he’s the best option for Wednesday.