I feel like the Dad who needs to sit down next to his son and explain how the world works. I've been dreading this day, but it's time for us to get real about Jose Quintana following a 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks evening against the Red Sox. It's back-to-back disaster outings after allowing eight runs to the Diamondbacks last week and I can feel how frustrated many of you are. Is he droppable? Is he worth your roster spot? Well, let's dive into this. Hard contact looks normal at 28.2% (good!) with a 19.7% soft contact rate - his highest of his career. However, groundballs are at a career low at 37.8% while flyballs are above 40% for the first time, which is terrible considering his HR/FB rate is at a shocking 13.0% mark. Quintana has been known in his career of being excellent at beating the league average in HR/FB rate - 9.1% career mark and that includes this year's clip - and obviously something is causing this change. The biggest one I see is a change of abandoning his Two-Seamer in favor of nearly exclusive Four-Seamers, which are being located higher in the zone as well. Pair that with fewer chases out of the zone on his Curveball and he has to rely on the heater more often and he's getting burned on the pitch often. I'll be the first to tell you that this isn't the most convincing argument and it's reasonable to believe that his 65.4% LOB rate, HR/FB mark and 3.36 BB/9 will all fall closer to career norms, making Quintana a serviceable #3/#4 on your squad. There's also a chance that he's a pain the entire year, bouncing back and forth and making you afraid to start him any given day. I imagine his stock is super low at the moment, meaning you have no choice but to hold, though I think I'd sit on him and not drop him yet.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
I know this is probably a DLH situation for Paxton, but it is super tempting to throw him back out there out of pure joy of getting a starter back from the DL.
I’m with you completely.
I’ve learned my lesson in the past, but it is so tempting to be blasphemous to the DLH Gods.
DLH Gods be damned, I’m throwing him out there! At least it’s in Seattle instead of Colorado.
Watched a bit the Tyler Anderson outing since I streamed him, and he wasn’t getting any favors from behind the plate in the 2nd. He lost command on a few too many pitches for my liking, but there were a few on the black that didn’t go his way that could have prevented the blowup.
Nola blown up day :(
There’s still time…there’s still time…
The worst part about all this is how I watch Nola, I see a 10 pitch at-bat to Gordon that leads to a walk, then a strikeout and a weak groundball single, then an opposite field Home Run as Ozuna gets jammed.
I feel so conflicted every time since I know Nola could have been “better” – don’t get behind on Ozuna, make better pitches to Gordon – but at the same time I see this and know the results just aren’t just to what this kid can do.
Totally agree with you. I usually watch his starts but missed this one because of the early start time.
btw, might want to avoid r/fantasybaseball today. Everyone clearly overreacting to his performance/your love for him lol.
Ha, it’s expected. I love that anything goes thread and it’s where people can embellish their emotions. It’s all good.
Nick,
Any chance of a Lamet gif breakdown?
I’m super intrigued by this guy.
I watched a little of him last night. His stuff looks pretty nasty. But he left a few hangars that should have been crushed, but were not. So he got a little lucky. He also made the Cubs look very silly a few times.
Possibly, though I think there are others that deserve the treatment first.
If I thought Lamet was getting too much hype I’d consider it, likewise if he weren’t getting enough.
I don’t think there’s a whole lot to expose in a breakdown, honestly. That could change, of course.
If Taillon was available on the wire, would you consider picking him up and dropping Maeda? This is in a 10 Team 5×5.
I think I’d do that in a 10 teamer. All about chasing upside there and Taillon has the higher upside.