Quantifying command may not be the final frontier of pitching analysis. But in the stuff model era, it’s the biggest mountain this community has yet to clear.
We don’t have enough publicly available computer tracking data for catchers’ targets, nor the intent behind each pitch. Instead, we’ve turned to grading locations, extracting run value and residuals from where a pitcher ought to throw his pitches.
Macro-level command remains elusive. In the meantime, it’s worth exploring where it is proving to be the difference individually. So often, an improved location is the precursor to a breakout, and for the San Francisco Giants, Landen Roupp’s hot start can be tied to his precision. His newfound command gains have helped actualize his distinct game plans for both sides of the plate and turned him into a potential playoff starter.
An Off-Ramp From Ordinary
Every breakthrough begins with a problem. For Roupp, that was a high-usage sinker that didn’t miss enough bats to compensate for ugly numbers on contact. Opponents hit .355 on at-bats ending with that offering. Among the 54 pitchers with at least 500 sinkers last season, Roupp posted the eighth-worst barrel and ideal contact rates. By xwoBACON, he ranked 52nd.
With two strikes, Roupp’s sinker generated a 11.6% chase rate, putting away batters just 20.2% of the time.
One look at his fastball (below average velocity, iVB, extension, and approach angle) shows that a new heater wasn’t coming. Roupp needed to make the most of his sinker, whose hard right turn gives it some staying power. Its unique movement, with otherwise average attributes, can play up with better command and ancillary offerings.
San Francisco has gotten a glimpse of both in the early going. In 2026, Roupp’s locations bear out a refined approach, most notably with his sinker (39% usage) and cutter (12%).
Here, Roupp’s plans begin to diverge. He’s at his best against lefties when he can keep the ball up in the zone, where all of his (sinker) whiffs live. From there, changing eye levels with the curve is much easier. Against righties, though, he employs a much more east-west approach. His CSW% comes from the lower third of the zone and the outside corner, and by getting sinkers in on the hands, he’s generating weak contact. Notably, Roupp is almost directionally agnostic, depending on his opponent’s handedness. To lefties, elevating his sinkers takes priority over a particular side of the plate. With the platoon advantage, it’s more important to avoid leaving sinkers middle-down, middle-middle, and middle-up, where damage is more likely to be done.
His new cutter helps facilitate this development. Roupp has added significant glove-side movement to it, from 2.8 inches arm-side to 4.0 inches glove-side.
I believe these benefits are threefold. The new movement profile on his cutter tunnels well with the sinker that he loves to spot outside to righties, allowing him to blur the edge of the plate. Its O-Swing% to right-handed hitters is up 10 points (20.8% to 30.8%). The whiffs should eventually follow. The cutter also adds legitimacy to the high sinkers he is throwing lefties, both of which naturally tunnel with the curveballs starting up in the zone before ducking under it.
Lastly, and admittedly, the least empirically, there may be something to be said about throwing with a little more confidence. Roupp is executing his game plan well and getting rewarded for it. Might simplifying his approach make for more repeatable mechanics? It no longer feels like he is searching for strikes wherever he can find them in the zone. And while his walk rate is up (10.2% from 9.5%), his H/9 has halved, and his K% has increased meaningfully.
When Eno Sarris spoke to Charlie Morton about the topic in 2018, the veteran shared a similar sentiment.
“Command is throwing with conviction,” Morton said. “I’ll miss by two or three feet and it’ll work out. The other day, on a 0-0 count, I threw a low fastball at the knees on the edge of the zone, and Mike Trout hit it out. That’s not really the conviction I’m going for. I pick a half of the zone, no, not a quarter, and I throw the heck out of the four-seamer.”
Roupp Is Reaping the Benefits
We can’t get inside Roupp’s head, but we can see how it’s manifesting in the box score. He’s getting to two strikes more frequently. Across the board, his putaway rate improving has made that count.
To right-handed hitters, Roupp’s putaway rate has increased for all four of his pitches. Against lefties, his sinker is finishing off strikeouts at nearly double the rate of 2025 (16.7% to 30.4%), which is now almost identical to its success against righties. His curveball’s putaway rate jumped at least seven points against both sides of the plate. Roupp is a new pitcher in 2026, even without overwhelming stuff gains, making his 27.0% K% feel all the more sustainable.
Not everything in Roupp’s profile is regression-proof. He’s not going to run a .205 BABIP forever. However, damage suppression has been a strength, and his expected metrics suggest a fall back to Earth shouldn’t hurt too badly. His xBABIP (.268) is still a 69th-percentile mark; his xAVG (.189) and xwOBA (.256) rank in the 88th and 89th percentiles, respectively. Roupp has kept hitters off-balance enough to limit exit velocities (90th-percentile average EV) and has tailored his arsenal to generate ground balls. When he’s going upstairs, he’s doing so to lefties who haven’t yet taken advantage of the opportunity.
Landen Roupp, Painted 92mph Front Hip Two Seamer. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/029aI47y5v
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 26, 2026
Perhaps this is a downstream effect of a new delivery creating a lower, more glove-side cluster of release points. Maybe it was always bound to happen on a staff with sinker-specialist Logan Webb finding similar success.
Whatever the reason, those macro-level command grades like Roupp, too. By Location+, his sinker and changeup have both seen double-digit gains, landing Roupp among the top 20 pitchers in baseball.
Projecting command off of small samples can be fraught, and worse, batted ball luck might test Roupp’s conviction. But for now, this is a pitcher who’s striking out significantly more batters without sacrificing contact quality, and he’s doing so with an arsenal built to attack hitters on either side of the plate. That looks like an awful lot like a playoff starter if the rest of the Giants can hit their stride.
