Living Happily Sever After

Okay okay okay, we’re going to talk about Luis Severino after he went 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks against the Red Sox tonight. After facing a pair of...

Okay okay okay, we’re going to talk about Luis Severino after he went 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks against the Red Sox tonight. After facing a pair of poor teams back-to-back in the Rays and White Sox, I was skeptical that he’ll be able to continue the trend against a legitimate offense in Boston. Clearly, he passes the test and I’m on board, of course. I’m aiming to do a GIF Breakdown of this start tomorrow (Ervin Santana’s is coming out in the early morning) as I finally have the time to start doing those again – in fact, I’m aiming to do 2-3 of them per week now – and I’ll dive into what changes Severino has made to elevate him to the man before us. Is it because of the Slider? You’re damn right it is, but there’s more than that. I also still have my concerns about his Changeup and wonder if it will be his ultimate downfall, or if he’ll nail that pitch and keep his Fastball command at a high level to take the league by storm on the back of his slide piece. I’ll go over it all tomorrow but in the mean time get pumped and hold on tight. If someone’s buying, it best be for a significant improvement on your team.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

James Paxton – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Yes! This night is amazing!

Dylan Bundy – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. SO AMAZING.

Sean Manaea – 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. “Manaea left the game with shoulder tightness.” Wait, what’s this? No. No no no this is terrible. TERRIBLE.

Robert Gsellman – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. NOOOOOOOOOOO. I hate everything. You were supposed to be the chosen ones. Richards, Manaea, Gsellman…all deflated within a week. I really can’t trust Gsellman anymore until I see multiple solid starts consecutively after he did this against the Braves. He did get burned early, but even after that he never looked settled in. It’s been real, Gsellman. Too real.

Daniel Norris – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Oh now this is just cruel. Okay, I wasn’t starting Norris anyway against the Mariners and I’m not against the Indians next time either, but I had a soft spot in the pre-season for Norris as well and despite his high whiff count last time out, I can’t get fully on board…yet. Maybe in two weeks when he has an easier schedule. Maybe…

Alex Wood – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Well well well. Wood finally arrived and gave us the evening we deserved among stiff competition. Alright fine, the Giants aren’t a good offense, but it was for the sake of the joke. I do it for you. Would I be running off to grab Wood Alex? I guess I’m alright with his next start against the Giants again, but it’s hard to tell how the Dodgers rotation will shape up and we don’t know what kind of performance we’re going to get from the kid again. Obviously a low floor and this is essentially the ceiling. Not my favorite 12 teamer add.

Jose Quintana – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. Ahhhh there’s the Quintana we know and love. The Curveball was looking pretty as he faced the Royals and he did his thang that goes bang bang bang. I’m now imaging that’s what you sound like when you’ve had a bit to drink. Who says I haven’t tonight? …I haven’t.

Rick Porcello – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 9 Ks. Seeing four walks from Porcello is a bit concerning, given he’s supposed to be a strike thrower who works around the zone to get guys out. But then again nine strikeouts…but that’s also not his M.O. This start just seems weird all around and I’m going to disregard it. I really wish I had it on a flash card that I can throw up in the air to express my full emotions…hold on a second. Okay I’m back. Sorry you couldn’t see it but that was pretty satisfying.

Julio Teheran – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Teheran, you’re not making this competition vs. James Paxton any fun. This is also very mediocre, which I guess shouldn’t surprise me, but I need more from you. More.

Zack Godley – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. The False God. No good will come with pursuing Zack.

Trevor Bauer – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Yep, that’s what Bauer brings to the table. You can’t trust that ERA/WHIP will be there, but he can strike out 8 on a given night. It will rarely be much more than that, but he is what he is.

Vince Velasquez – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Ehhhhh do we have to take it? I guess so. It’s a Quality Start but the ERA/WHIP are all kinds of blegh and it’s just three Ks from Velasquez, which is far from what you signed up for.

Matt Shoemaker – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Blegh, I want better from Shoemaker against the Athletics. I think he has it in him and nine baserunners with only five innings under his belt just doesn’t do it for me. What about these shoes? Those tacky red ones? YOU KNOW ME SO WELL.

Hector Santiago – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Sure Santaigo. A 2.00 WHIP, 3.80 ERA, but six strikeouts. Whatever.

Johnny Cueto – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s getting a bit weird here that Cueto is now only 40% at giving owners a starts that they’re happy with. Fine, this is Quality start but it’s legit the extreme of it with a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Please be better. Please.

Tanner Roark – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. And the super boring, non-elite, mediocre season that makes you question why you drafted Roark season continues.

Nathan Karns – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. There used to be a time that I was a fan of Karns and believed he could be a nseaky add in deeper leagues. I don’t really see that being a good bet to make these days as this was the easiest start he’ll come across in a date with the ChiSox.

Cole Hamels – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. More Walks, fewer Ks, higher WHIP…this is exactly what I feared from Hamels and why I don’t own him anywhere. Yes I’d be selling if his name carried a Top 25 SP price.

Alex Cobb – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Yeah, I’m going to have to keep waiting for Cobb to get that Changeup back and be the man we all want him to be. Well, the man most forgot went to their high school and just assumes he isn’t good looking anymore. Just you wait, that day will come when he returns to the gym and everyone goes “oh my!” Or not. UP TO YOU COBB.

Wily Peralta – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Looks like the Ks are back after taking a vacation to North Dakota. North Dakota? What, you think something associated with Peralta would go somewhere exotic? Also, have you seen those cliffs at this time of year? Marvelous.

Wei-Yin Chen – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s pitching through a partial UCL Tear, but Chen doesn’t seem to care. I think Marlin fans might. Just a hunch.

Tyler Glasnow – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Four walks and 10 baserunners in 10 outs? I’m so losing that Bold Prediction where I said Glasnow would Top 40 in the second half. Tick tock, Glasnow. Tick freakin’ Tock.

Trevor Cahill – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 4 BBs, 9 Ks. The strikeouts are shocking, but when you realize Cahill had 13 baserunners and 17 outs, that’s still under a 30% K rate. But wait, is Cahill a good upside pick to make in my 12-teamer? Heavens no. Way too much risk and I’m not buying that he’ll be striking up a storm like…Storm.

Lance McCullers Jr. – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. I got a lot of hate for not putting McCullers in the Top 25 on Monday. Ladies and Gentlemen, I present you Exhibit A. Okay, this is more like Exhibit F at this point but you get the idea. He needs more

Jon Lester – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. I can’t believe this came against the silly Pirates, but the good news here is that he avoids all the tough starts ahead (Boston and Coors) and gets outings like the Phils, Yankees and Cards ahead. Everything will be okay.

Tyler Chatwood – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. We’re doing a podcast tomorrow morning and Eddy wants to talk about Chatwood. Why? Why do we need to go more into detail about how Chatwood added some velocity but his overall stuff nor command just isn’t good enough for me to trust, let alone with the clear disadvantage of starting half his games in Coors. I just don’t see it.

Rookie Davis – 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. It was DLH and Cup of Schmo rolled into one. Worst burrito ever.

Today’s Streamer

Edinson Volquez vs. Philadelphia Phillies – There really is nothing else outside of Weaver against the diamondbacks or Fiers against the Indians. Like I’m going to favor those instead.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Adam Conley vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Conley gets another easy opponent in the Phils Pirates (rainouts are fun) and there really aren’t any other options to go with here. If Lance Lynn is still out there somehow, I’d prefer him against the Reds.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Brandon McCarthy vs. Philadelphia Phillies There’s some confusion about if McCarthy is actually getting this start – I think he is but whatever – and he has the upside to take care of the Phils.

Game of the Day

Julio Urias vs. San Francisco Giants It’s the first start of the season for the kid, who is apparently going to stick with the Dodgers all year. We’ll see if that’s the case – the Dodgers aren’t known to keep their word – but for now I want to see where he’s at.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

23 responses to “Living Happily Sever After”

  1. jakerg23 says:

    Does this bump Paxton to 15, jumping Taillon and Fulmer?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Not sure about that yet. It’s always been about expected innings with Paxton – given his injury history I’m expecting Fulmer/Taillon to accrue more starts this year.

      Just a matter of time if Paxton is staying on the hill.

      • jakerg23 says:

        Thanks for the answer. I’m taking it as “Paxton is the second coming of the flamethrower, summoned from Noah Syndergaard looking into a magic mirror, heir to the Strikeout Krown.”

  2. How do you feel about Holland against DET saturday? Or Straily against Pitt

  3. Larry says:

    Last week I decided to hold onto Gsell instead of Severino because I was afraid of Severino’s matchups this week.

    Think I’d rather have Wheeler than Gsellman at this point(Severino got picked up)

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Yeah, I’m with you there. Just have to play the odds.

      I’m leaning Wheeler in the short term as well.

  4. Nick D says:

    Loooove how sexy Pax is right now. Was hoping for CG SO but guess they’re not gonna let him go over 100 pitches due to aforementioned injury history..?

    Thoughts on streaming Nelson tomorrow vs Atlanta? He’s been OK, Brew Crew is still mashing and Braves offense is mostly anemic. Should have some breathing room with ratios and wins/k’s will be close….

    Thanks Nick!!

    • Nick Pollack says:

      They’re being a little careful with Paxton, though I think the reigns will ease up as the season continues. Not many pitchers are allowed to climb over 100 pitches these days, anyway.

      Don’t like it a whole lot, but not a terrible play if you’re fine on ERA/WHIP.

  5. Sticki says:

    I was looking forward to a lengthier description on Paxton against the Tigers but c’est la vie. I’ll take it!

    • Nick Pollack says:

      We went a little deeper in the Podcast, but there isn’t much more to say about Paxton!

      He would be Top 10 easily if I knew he were getting 200+ innings this year. That question is preventing him for rising plenty in The List.

  6. Soggy Arm says:

    Hey, Nick. I have 4 pitchers on 10-Day DL, about ready to return. In which order should I drop these guys– Gsellman, Norris, Moore? Also, is Wheeler now the pickup? 12-team.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Moore, Norris, Gsellman.

      Really don’t like any of those three right now, but I believe Gsellman has the best chance of putting together a productive season here-on-out. I prefer Wheeler the most.

  7. Kyle says:

    Have we lost all hope in Cotton? Especially against @HOU?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I wouldn’t say so and I believe his command can return after the last outing. I think I’d be starting him in a 12-teamer.

  8. Soggy Arm says:

    What do you think about trading McCutchen or Cespedes for either Fulmer or Taillon?

  9. Matt Nielsen says:

    Paxton….AGA?!? C’monnnn.

  10. RRH says:

    Need a streamer for tomorrow — Lynn v CIN, Ray v COL, Conley v PIT, or Cotton @ Morton? QS & K/9

    Gotta be Lynn right? Is there a second guy you’d also take? All ratios are close, QS probably not competitive.

    • RRH says:

      Oh whoops, just saw you mention Lynn! Still — are these other guys worth the risk with ratios in play? I’m intrigued by both Conley and Ray. Not sure Cotton or Morton are worth the risk.

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