July is such an exciting month for baseball, headlined by the mid-summer classic, the All-Star Game. In addition, the stars of tomorrow are prominently displayed (well, sometimes) with the Futures Game and the Draft. The month concludes with the trade deadline, as buyers and sellers find common ground and make their push toward the postseason.
In Dynasty leagues, a lot can happen. First and foremost, you’re positioning yourself as a contender or looking toward next year by rebuilding or retooling. Or your prospects may be changing teams, which can increase their values or even give them new opportunities for a fast track to the Show.
This month’s Dynasty rankings felt like a complete overhaul with so much player movement, including the addition of 2024 Draft picks. Before I made my rankings public for the first time, I never understood why writers would put these together so often. I also thought I was the only person with so much parody from month to month. Now that I’m publishing them, I feel more comfortable having so much activity within the Top 350 players and look forward to updating my rankings.
Statistics entering play on 7/27/2024
RISERS
Garrett Crochet, SP, CHW
Garrett Crochet’s journey to stardom has been quite a journey. Crochet was a 1st round pick in 2020 and skipped the Minor leagues entirely, making his MLB debut on September 18th, 2020. Crochet threw 60 1/3 innings out of the White Sox bullpen in two seasons before he underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2022. The 6’6″ left-hander returned to action in 2023, making 13 appearances to end the season. Entering 2024, the White Sox tabbed Crochet as a starter, and he’s emerged as one of the best starting pitchers in baseball.
In his 21 starts, Crochet has a 3.07 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with a 35.4% strikeout rate. His height has afforded him an elite extension that pushes his high-octane arsenal to a greater level. Crochet has an upper-90s fastball, cutter, and slider. That three-pitch mix has produced a 32.7% Whiff rate and limited hitters to a .201 average against and .571 OPS. As the deadline approaches, Crochet could be on the move and would greatly benefit by leaving the lowly White Sox. While Crochet has moved inside the Top 125 overall, an underlying injury risk remains as he’s thrown just 184 1/3 career innings, with 60% of those coming this season.
Some of Garrett Crochet's Filth. pic.twitter.com/gOCh76Xrck
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 24, 2024
James Wood, OF, WSH
James Wood has arrived, and he is beautiful. The top prospect in baseball made his MLB debut on July 1st and has been solid thus far. In 17 games, Wood has two homers, 13 RBI, and two steals while playing daily for the Nationals. His batted ball data is a mixed bag, although he has flashed the power potential he was lauded for. Wood has a 94.2 mph average exit velocity with a 111.6 mph max EV. His in-zone contact rate is 75%, and Wood has shown power to all fields. Ideally, we’d like to see an increase in his pull rate (22%), but that will come. On the flip side, Wood has struggled with strikeouts early on, posting a 36.8% whiff rate and 36% K-rate, which mirrors his 30% career mark in the Minors. Wood hits the ball on the ground way too much (64.8%), so it’s easy to expect positive regression on that rate, which should improve his overall production. Most of the rookies promoted this year have sputtered, but the signs we’re seeing from Wood give me hope that a breakout is coming.
Brenton Doyle, OF, COL
Doyle is a player I’ve been high on most of the season and he continues to show why. The 26-year-old centerfielder came onto the scene last season, hitting ten homers with 22 steals over 126 games. His phenomenal defense has kept Doyle in the lineup, but now the bat is paying dividends for the Rox. In 96 games, Doyle is slashing .278/.342/.482 with 17 homers and 20 steals and has ascended to the middle of the order. His strikeout rate is down over 11% from last season (24.5%), and he’s walking 3% more. He has also seen increases in barrel rate, average and max EV, and a 7% bump in hard-hit rate. Another plus is that Doyle ranks in the 94th percentile for Sprint Speed (29.3), which gives him a high floor for stolen bases, making him a five-category contributor. In an injury-riddled outfield crop, Doyle has become a reliable source of power and speed at the position and continues to rise as a Dynasty asset.
Seth Lugo, SP, KCR
One of the most unremarkable signings this offseason was Lugo agreeing to a 3-year/$45M deal with the Royals. After seven seasons with the Mets, one as a starter in 2017, Lugo took a “show me” deal with the Padres last season, finishing 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP as a full-time starter. Things have gone very well for Lugo in his debut season with Kansas City, pitching to a 12-4 record with a 2.38 ERA and his first All-Star game appearance. Most of the surface stats are similar to years past. But, Lugo is suppressing hard contact and keeping hitters off balance with his eight-pitch mix. His most successful offering has always been his curveball, which has a 99th-percentile spin rate (3200 RPM) and has generated a 16.3% swinging strike rate on the season. As an added boost, his home ballpark, Kauffman Stadium, has helped cut his HR/FB rate to 7.9%, over 4% below his career average. Lugo is 34 years old and throwing the ball as well as he ever has, providing a rotation stabilizer for your Dynasty team.
Jackson Chourio, OF, MIL
After a slow start to 2024, the 20-year-old outfielder has caught fire. Entering June, Chourio was batting .210 with five homers and a 29% strikeout rate. Over the past 41 games, he’s bumped his average to .259 adding five more homers and drawing 11 walks to 24 strikeouts. The metrics are coming around as his hard-hit rate has climbed to 43.8%, although his barrel rate remains well below league average. With the recent injury to Christian Yelich, the Brewers will need the rookie to continue his growth. Chourio has worked himself into a regular role after losing playing time in the first two months and it should be an everyday role moving forward. Given Chourio’s prospect pedigree and overall skill set, this could be the launching point for a star-level career.
20-year old Jackson Chourio ties it again with a solo shot! He’s doing it on defense and at the plate this series. This kid is insane! 🍻 pic.twitter.com/NpzBRmce0r
— The Brew Crew Scoop (@BrewCrewScoop) July 21, 2024
Honorable Mention:
Paul Skenes, SP, PIT
I’m not sure what else we can say about Skenes, the first player to appear as a riser twice this season. Ahead of 2024, the question about Skenes was whether the Pirates would deploy him early on or manipulate his time. Not only did Skenes debut in early May but the 6’6″ rookie has been on full display, including starting the All-Star game. In his 12 starts, Skenes has a sub-2.00 ERA with a 34.2% strikeout rate. In four of his last five starts, he’s pitched into the 7th inning or later including an 8 1/3 IP outing on July 23rd. Skenes is a workhorse and the Pirates appear willing to use him that way. I do expect workload management down the stretch, but if the Pirates remain in the wild-card race, it’s going to be a tough sell to their fans to leave the game’s best pitcher on the bench.
Prospect Riser:
Kyle Teel, C, BOS
Teel has been everything I thought he’d be when the Red Sox took the 22-year-old catcher with the 14th pick in the 2023 Draft. Teel slashed .363/.482/.495 in a brief debut last season and has been just as good this year. Playing exclusively at Double-A Portland, Teel is batting .301 with nine homers, 17 doubles, and six steals. Teel starred in the Futures Game, hitting two doubles while showing power to all fields. I anticipate a promotion to Triple-A soon for Teel, who could be the everyday catcher for the Red Sox by early Summer in 2025.
Kyle Teel has been raking since the beginning of May.
52 G, 235 PA, .332/.409/.507, 15 2B, 7 HR, 10.6% BB, 22.6% K
When you factor in defense, he's in the discussion for the best catching prospect in baseball.#DirtyWaterpic.twitter.com/kO8YCwG7ky
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) July 23, 2024
FALLERS
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, DET
After a 31-homer season in 2023, things were looking up for Tigers’ first baseman Spencer Torkelson. The former top overall pick had mixed results in his 2022 rookie season, hitting just .203 with eight homers and a 25% strikeout rate. Tork’s batted ball data looked good, but he wasn’t consistently making hard contact which caused his production to suffer. Everything seemed to click last season as Torkelson parlayed an improved barrel rate, launch angle, hard-hit rate, and fly ball rate into his first 30-homer season. Even with a poor batting average (.233), fantasy owners took comfort with his power output and above-average counting stats playing in a weak Tigers’ lineup.
Torkelson climbed inside the Top 100 overall players entering 2024 with expectations that he would build on his breakout season of 2023. Unfortunately, things have not gone as planned. Tork started his season hitting just .216 with no homers through April. During that span, he had a sub-.300 OBP and sub-.600 OPS. He managed four homers in May, but his .191 batting average landed him with Triple-A Toledo. His quality of contact metrics were down across the board, including a 10% drop in barrel rate and a 12% decline in hard-hit rate. Since the demotion, his struggles have continued. In 38 games, he’s hitting .236 with a 37.2% strikeout rate. Rumors have circulated that the Tigers are searching for a trade partner for Torkelson, but will a change of scenery help at this point?
Michael Harris II, OF, ATL
Michael Harris II is a good player and his fall is not solely based on his injury. Before the hamstring woes that have kept Harris out since mid-June, some things stood out in his profile. Since his debut, Harris has continuously shown subpar plate discipline, including a chase rate north of 38%. Those swing decisions have not resulted in excessive strikeouts, but they have led to lower on-base rates and have caused a massive drop in his barrel rate. In addition, Harris has seen his groundball rate jump over 50% for the second time in his three seasons. Harris hits the ball relatively hard and plays in a high-octane offense, but to maximize his speed and talent, he needs to make adjustments. I still value Harris inside the Top 60 overall, but his ceiling feels lower than others in that range.
Jorge Soler, OF, SFG
My initial reaction to Soler’s move to the Bay Area was concern. Soler has a track record of elite power only and Oracle Park in San Francisco ranks dead last in RH power. That’s such a poor fit and it still makes no sense sitting here today. In 90 games this season, Soler has 12 homers which in a 20-homer pace, albeit with a .231 average and poor counting stats in the anemic Giants’ offense. His barrel rate is a career-low and his average EV has dropped 2 mph this season, but on the whole, the other metrics look the same. But, when a player has one carrying tool suppressed by their home ballpark, it’s hard to imagine any movement other than down.
Andrés Giménez, 2B, CLE
With Travis Bazzana in the fold in Cleveland, it looks like Gimenez’s days as the everyday second baseman are dwindling. Gimenez had two successful seasons in 2022 and 2023, belting double-digit homers with at least 20 steals. The problem was his data did not support the production and now regression is here. Gimenez has just five homers this season in a year where the ball is flying out of Cleveland to his pull side. He ranks among the league’s worst in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate and has a career-worst 4.2% walk rate. To make things worse, his groundball rate has spiked to 52.4% giving him no shot to find already middling power.
Maikel Garcia, 3B, KCR
I’m puzzled by Garcia. He has above-average bat-to-ball skills, including a 90.1% zone contact rate, a 16.1% whiff rate, and a 67.7% O-contact rate. Garcia rarely chases, has a 90.7 mph average EV, and strikes out at a sub-17% rate. On the other hand, he rarely finds the barrel (4.1%), which is unfortunate given his 30% fly ball rate. It seems that he’s the opposite of Yandy Díaz, who consistently finds the barrel but cannot lift the ball. It’s frustrating, and if it sustains, it will be the reason why you’ll experience the inconsistencies we’ve seen from Garcia so far. Garcia will provide a solid source of speed, but unless his batted ball profile changes, the power and ultimate ceiling, remain in question.
Prospect Faller:
Ethan Salas, C, SDP
Salas is just too young for the lofty expectations that I placed on him so I have to backtrack. He turned 18 in early June and his bat has shown his need for development at Double-A. In 73 games, Salas has a .196/.294/.274 slash line with one homer, eight steals, and a 26.3% strikeout rate. The Padres were super aggressive with their assignment and I think if they had the chance, they would have slowed Salas down. There is little doubt about his talent, but his value in fantasy is dependent on his offense, which is seriously lacking at this time.
What do you think about Soler now with the move back to Atlanta? Up or Down? Thanks!