Masyn Winn’s 2024 was phenomenal: his 3.6 fWAR ranked fourth among rookie hitters in the National League as he put up a respectable 103 wRC+ with exceptional defense. After struggling in his cup of coffee with the Cardinals in 2023, last year showed that Winn could be the shortstop of the future. The .267/.314/.416 slash line was a good start, but everyone wants more from a potential franchise shortstop.
In 2025, things haven’t picked up where they left off. Through ten games this year, Winn is slashing .242/.333/.324 with one home run. It’s too early in the season for any of the rate stats to mean much, but there are enough process changes to start asking questions of Winn at this point in the year.
This is potentially the beginning of a “sophomore slump”; Winn’s skillset might’ve been taken for granted in his rookie season, and now a handful of changes put him back to square one. Sound similar? Teammate Jordan Walker experienced a similar struggle last year after a successful rookie season, but a new hitting coach can often complicate the process.
What Worked in 2024?
Winn’s biggest success in 2024 was his two-strike approach. His 17.1% strikeout rate was good but not outstanding, though his ability to hit with two strikes was phenomenal. Winn’s 14.3% putaway rate was in the 84th percentile (min. 500 pitches faced), meaning that there were a hefty amount of two-strike pitches that didn’t punch Winn out.
Winn became this uber-aggressive hitter in two-strike counts, swinging at anything and everything, which was unlike his approach otherwise.
Winn had a very high 70% swing rate in two-strike counts, which puts him in the 97th percentile for two-strike swing rate minus putaway rate. The rest of those at the top of the leaderboard are similarly known for their distinct two-strike approaches.
This approach paid off for Winn in bulk: his 80 two-strike hits in 2024 was the second-most in baseball, trailing only José Ramírez. Winn displayed immense bat control and was doing damage on poor pitches; the high volume of swings was to put the ball in play, not just to survive until the next pitch.
Not many hitters are hitting this pitch out for an improbable home run, especially hitters who don’t have fantastic exit velocities. Winn is capable of getting the barrel anywhere, and it yields rewards. Looking at the swing itself, his bat speed has a somewhat normal distribution. For many players, the speed distribution can identify an A swing, a B swing, and in some cases, even more. For two of these elite two-strike hitters, a straightforward distribution encompasses all swings normally, accounting for both the two-strike contact swings and the ahead-in-the-count large swings.
Winn showed that he does have slightly more swings at the tail end of his bat speed numbers since he has more flailing swings compared to Ramírez. These are the “make contact at all costs” swings that are as ugly as a contact swing can be.
The approach for Winn set the table for him to be an everyday plus bat going into 2025, with a clear bat-to-ball plan of attack. The only thing one might want more of from Winn is power: his 15 home runs was a solid start, but most of his scouting grades have potential 50-grade game power. His 2024 already put him in solid company: among rookies from 2000-2024, only nine others had 15+ HR and a sub-18% strikeout rate. That group includes Albert Pujols, Jackson Merrill, Anthony Rizzo, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., among others.
What’s Changed in 2025 So Far?
Winn has gotten off to a slow start in 2025. His poor slash line and complete lack of power have been a bit concerning, but he started to show signs of life last weekend in Boston (he’s gotten unlucky, too) and finally hit his first home run last night.
Most notably, his approach looks substantially different early on, both for better and worse. Again, there’s a lot of time before stats stabilize, but this looks like a different Winn.
On the surface, Winn is trading contact for power. His putaway rate is up eight percent, which coincides with his current 31.7% strikeout rate. His 10.7% drop-off in year-over-year contact rate ranks 6th out of 131 hitters (min. 30 PA in 2025). While there are substantially more hard-hit batted balls early in 2025, they haven’t been amounted to damage. Winn has only two barrels so far, and eight of his nine hits have been singles.
The early bat speed data, while encouraging, also shows that there’s been an approach change. Like pitch velocity, bat speed stabilizes relatively quickly, making this helpful in the present.
Winn is showing three swings now, rather than the one-ish he showed in 2024. Last year, he exhibited one consistent main bat speed. This year, there is an emerging middle ground. While it’s helping produce better quality contact, this has bucketed his approach into more specific situations.
Rather than being either in attack mode or complete defense (basically two-strike counts vs. not), Winn seemingly has more to consider in his approach. Not trying to swing as much in two-strike counts has hurt his strikeout rate, which seems counterintuitive. His bat speed in two-strike counts increased by 1.7 mph, while his overall bat speed only increased by 1.3 mph. He’s trying to move away from his old approach, and it’s not working yet.
The bright side for Winn is that the slugging is going to come. If he can maintain the bat speed and HardHit% gains, the early season sample will fizzle out, and the power will start to show up. The only question is if the tradeoff will be too much.
Winn showed us an outlier skill last year, one that was unique and put him in good company at the top of some leaderboards. Taking a seemingly completely new approach in year two is always a big risk, and I think we’re currently in the adjustment phase for Winn.
As he faces more big league pitching, Winn can certainly figure out this new approach. Winn also struggled in Spring Training, hitting .080 with no extra base hits in 55 plate appearances. It’s an intentional change with the hopes that the 23-year-old can reach new heights. With this being a “reset” year for the Cardinals, a full season without fear of losing his role may be for the better, but we’re still in the early phases before declaring a result.
