Hellmann’s Best
Coby Mayo (BAL): 2-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI.
For about four seconds, Coby Mayo made a sparse crowd at the Trop gawk in disbelief with a 468-foot moonshot (114.2 EV) that temporarily gave the Orioles a 1-0 lead. And the guy who tossed the pitch was no slouch either; that would be returning ace Shane McClanahan. It’s easy to forget, but Mayo was a can’t-miss prospect not long ago, part of a young core that had the O’s and their fans pretty excited.
But, you know how it goes. Prospects are impossible to predict. Mayo had a moment here and there last year, thanks to his near-90th-percentile bat speed, but played sporadically and struggled to avoid whiffs. No longer rookie-eligible, the six-foot-five righty has slashed .213/ .276/ .436 across 323 PAs this season. His 16 home runs suggest he could approach 30 if everything clicked. However, there are just 13 qualified hitters who, like Mayo, have a K rate over 30%.
I don’t want to completely ignore the possibility that at 24, he eventually figures it out. But then again, the Orioles have already tipped their hand by shielding him at times from same-handed pitching. The results this season aren’t great: he has managed a 49 wRC+ across 207 PAs against right-handers. However, his production against southpaws has, at the very least, made him a deadly platoon bat (178 wRC+), as Shane McClanahan can now attest to.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Monday:
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL): 3-5, HR, R, 4 RBI.
Well, whaddya know? Speaking of former prospects, CES has been surprisingly productive since the O’s recalled him from Triple-A Norfolk on July 16th. His sixth home run broke a 4-4 tie in the fifth while coming at the expense of former Oriole Tyler Wells (358 feet, 105.7 EV). CES owns a .853 OPS over 88 PAs. While I can’t say for certain that he can’t be a legit big-league bat, I’m a little suspicious of his 51.5% chase rate.
Bobby Witt (KCR): 3-4, 2B, HR, 4 R, 3 RBI, BB, SB.
Witt banged his 15th of the season in the second against righty Mason Barnett; the two-run shot gave the Royals a 5-1 lead that they wouldn’t surrender. I suppose if you want to Wittpick, you could say that his over-the-fence power has been a little underwhelming. Regardless, his .820 OPS is within earshot of his career mark of .839. And you certainly can’t complain about his 33 steals. That’s third behind certified noodle bats Nasim Nuñez and Chandler Simpson.
Willson Contreras (BOS): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB.
Willson!! His career-best 25th home run came courtesy of a sweeper from righty Zack Littell while leading off the fifth. It was actually one of the lowest EVs you’ll see from a home run at 89.9. But who cares? I don’t think we’ve talked about Contreras as much as we should. The 34-year-old former catcher owns a career-best .924 OPS, which is fourth in baseball behind Alvarez, Ohtani, and Wood. I’d venture to guess the Red Sox are pretty pleased with how their offseason trade with the Cardinals turned out.
Hao-Yu Lee (DET): 3-3, R, 2 RBI, 2 BB.
Lee, a 23-year-old right-handed hitting rookie, has been in and out of Detroit’s lineup. Last night’s career-best five times on base came while hitting sixth during Detroit’s demolition of right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski. Lee owns a respectable .737 OPS, and demonstrated that he can steal a bag or two earlier this season with Triple-A Toledo. He could emerge as a playable MI in 15-teamers if the Tigers give him more at-bats in the final weeks.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): 4-5, 2B, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB, SB.
Crow-Armstrong greeted Luis Castillo by sending his first pitch soaring over the ivy in right (375 feet, 101.2 EV). About three hours later in the tenth inning, he called the game by taking lefty Hagen Smith for a ride to just about the same spot (391 feet, 98.7 EV). That’s 30 home runs, one off last year’s total. And he’s four stolen bases shy of matching last year’s 35. …And his .379 OBP is nearly 100 points better than last year. And, yeah, while we’re at it, take a look at his fielding run value. Lord have mercy. Are you thinking what I’m thinking? That perhaps you should have led with ’30 for 30: Crowing the Distance?” Well, yes, that, and a certain someone might have to start pitching pronto if they want a shot at winning their fifth MVP.
Agustín Ramírez (MIA): 2-4, 2B, R, BB.
Ramírez has started 5 of 13 games since being recalled the day after the deadline. However, he had a pair of doubles Sunday and a stolen base, indicating he could finally be starting to click. Stowers’ injury could also give him access to more at-bats as a DH; that’s where he played in each of the last two games. For now, his .702 OPS mirrors last year’s .700.
Tommy White (ATH): 1-3, HR, R, RBI, BB.
The 402-foot poke off Wacha in the fifth was little more than window dressing. Hey, that’s two in a row for Tommy Tanks. Alas, the 23-year-old rookie managed a relatively modest 93 wRC+ in Triple-A, so I will begrudgingly curb my enthusiasm. Still, let’s put him on the watch-list for 15-teamers in anticipation of the A’s return to Sacramento next week. I feel similarly about Jeff McNeil, who also homered last night.
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS): 3-5, 3 2B, 2 R, RBI.
Rafaela’s 32 doubles are tied with Alec Burleson for the most in baseball. The 25-year-old first-time All-Star is hitting .288 with a 115 wRC+ and has already matched last year’s 16 home runs. But his questionable swing decisions (74 Decision Value) and below-average hard-hit rate paint him as a potential regression candidate.
Kevin McGonigle (DET): 2-6, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Carmen Mlodzinski challenged McGonigle with a cutter at the letters, and it turned into his 12th home run (405 feet, 104.6 EV). Detroit’s 22-year-old leadoff hitter’s .810 OPS ranks fifth among qualified rookies. Despite last night’s home run, his power is about a tick or so below average (97 according to PLV). But the kid knows the strike zone like the back of his hand. That 133 DV is dang good.
Yandy Díaz (TBR): 2-3, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB.
Yandy put the Rays on the board with his 18th home run, an opposite-field nuke to right-center off Brandon Young (395 feet, 104.5 EV). The 34-year-old is hitting .304, seventh among qualified hitters. And with 70 RBIs, he has a reasonable chance at breaking last year’s career-best 83.
Featured image by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X) and adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on Bluesky)
