We are officially through Day 1 of the MLB Draft. 74 names were called last night, with many more to be called tonight into tomorrow. There were most definitely some surprises, but the draft unfolded as many predicted. It was a college-heavy class with the first 8 picks and 13 of the first 15 picks being from the college class. Let’s dive into some of the instant reactions from last night’s picks with a buy or sell on some of yesterday’s selections.
MLB Draft: Dynasty Buy or Sell
Buy: Chase Burns to the Reds
When I wrote the article about ideal landing spots for the top draft prospects, I had Hagen Smith going to the Reds as an ideal fit. Both Smith and Burns are interchangeable in that fit because of the nature of pitching development in baseball today. I was able to speak with a high-level college pitching coach before the draft who said they were sweating out the top 10 for both Burns and Smith because of the organizational fits. Development is the most important part of the draft process and both Burns and Smith still have things to work on. The Reds have the tools to maximize what Burns already offers, with a massive track record of success recently on the pitching development side.
Burns has an argument for 3 pitches that grade as 70s on the scouting scale. The FB has a chance to be dominant as it averaged 97.8 mph this season flashing 101 at multiple points. Where his FB takes it to the next level is the IVB and VAA, which both grade out as plus. This season he averaged 20 in IVB and a -5.06 VAA. He flashes both plus velocity and movement profiles that should translate at the next level. The SL is his best pitch with a 64.4% whiff rate on the season. It also has a 45.6% chase rate, showing that it consistently puts hitters in conflict. The CB this season was also dominant, with a 60.5% whiff rate and a 41.8% chase rate. Those 3 offerings alone will get swing and miss at the next level. The Reds will give Burns the tools to continue to progress and maximize his potential.
Sell: Seaver King to the Nationals
From one Wake Forest player to another, Seaver King was selected 10th overall by the Nationals. This analysis has nothing to do with King himself and more with the organization that drafted him. The Nationals have taken some high-ceiling shots in recent years with draft selections of Elijah Green and Brady House, and trading for James Wood. If you are going to take high-potential shots on players, you need to have the player development foundation to ensure those players succeed. The Nationals have not shown the developmental chops to ensure that King will reach his ceiling.
As for King himself, the prospect is intriguing. The athleticism is real (the Nationals had a 70 grade on his athleticism), and he could realistically play above-average defense at SS, 3B, 2B, LF, CF, and RF, which he showcased at Wake this Spring. The Nationals see him as an SS at the next level and will allow him to play there. There are some approach concerns with King as he chased 31.9% of pitches out of the zone. On the opposite end of that, for such a high chase %, he still made contact with 78.4% of pitches he swung at with a 93.2 mph average exit velocity. This was his first year in the ACC or even D1 Baseball, and he showcased impressive tools against the top competition. The Nationals will have to help guide King, and that is the concern in this selection for me. The Nationals have not shown consistent development to trust this selection.
Buy: Vance Honeycutt to the Orioles
I have written a lot about Vance Honeycutt over the last month and a half. When talking about ideal landing spots, I had him pegged to the Orioles. When I wrote about the concerns surrounding his profile, I had the Orioles in mind as an organization that could help him maximize his potential. And the Orioles seemingly felt the same way.
Honeycutt has his issues offensively. I wrote about it all when discussing his profile, but there is a lot of swing and miss with a lot of chase. As I like to say you can swing and miss, but you can’t chase. You can chase, but you can’t swing and miss. You can’t do both. Honeycutt does both. But all that is to say, the athlete is too good to pass up on. It is legit 80-grade defense and 80-grade speed. The power flashes 60-70 grade in game. All you have to do is believe in your player development enough to maximize his potential. The Orioles have showcased they have the chops to develop a player like Honeycutt.
The Orioles’ track record of success is enough to believe in this pick. What the Orioles have done with all different “types” of hitters is the most impressive part. They maximized hit over power guys like Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, and Samuel Basallo. They have also maximized power over hit guys like Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo. That adaptability showcases the ability to maximize a hitter’s strengths while developing their weaknesses. There is no organization better suited to make Honeycutt a superstar than the Orioles. Buy the stock now.
Sell: PJ Morlando to the Marlins
The Marlins found their guy and took their shot on him in the middle of the 1st round. There is an argument that taking Morlando in this spot was a “reach.” He was ranked outside the top 40 in most publications and was taken at 16 overall. The MLB Draft is unique because it is not always an exact science, due to signability and slot values, but with the names left on the board, it was an interesting pick.
On top of the reach nature of the selection, the Marlins have really struggled to find their prospect identity, especially offensively. Last season offensively, a lot of their selections were college bats, who have not necessarily panned out at all. So this season they decided to go with high school bats. It will be interesting to see how it pans out, but taking a shot on a high-potential high school bat will always be a risk.
As for Morlando the prospect, he is solid across the board. Right now the bat is a little hit over power, but has showcased a decent amount of power in spurts. That includes winning the High School Home Run Derby at the All-American Game. There is present bat speed, but has a tendency to be inconsistent. It is a bat to ball focused approach, but as he continues to mature he will tap into more power. Morlando’s profile translates at a corner outfield spot or first base, so the development of his power will be important. The talent is there to develop, but can the Marlins be trusted? They have not shown they can.
Buy: Carson Benge to the Mets
This was easily one of my favorite picks of the draft. During the lead-up to the draft, Benge was a guy I circled as a major riser in my eyes. At Oklahoma State in 2 years, he showcased impressive skills on the mound and at the plate. This season he took a major step forward both on the mound and at the plate, displaying skills that could both translate at the next level. I think his future is as a hitter, but the stuff on the mound could play at the next level.
Benge as a hitter was really impressive this season. After hitting .345 with 17 doubles and 7 home runs as a Redshirt Freshman, he took a step forward hitting .335 with 24 doubles and 18 home runs. All while showcasing great bat to ball skills (51 K’s) and a sound approach (49 BB’s). That is one part of the analysis I love. Seeing a guy take a huge step in power production while having a sound approach is a great development tool. But the metrics paint an even better story. Benge averaged 93.1 mph avg exit velocity while making contact with 84.0% of pitches he swung at. That is comparable to both Condon and Bazzana in terms of contact quality and contact rate, which is great territory to be in. Combine that with a 20% chase rate, and you see the potential of one of the draft’s top risers this fall. I love this pick and I really love what the Mets have done as an org over the last 12 months.
Photos courtesy of Wake Forest, Georgia, and North Carolina Athletics | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)