It’s good to know that some members of the Boston Red Sox read Friday’s MLB Weekend Series Preview. I basically told readers that going forward, they are unlikely to find the Sox or the New York Mets on the top-five list anytime soon unless they make a serious run up the standings.
Well, after Boston’s four-game sweep of the Yankees over the weekend, ending with Sunday’s thrilling extra-innings comeback victory, they are only 4 ½ games out of a wild card spot despite being 10 games under .500. I’m still looking at their overall record, and until they legitimately creep back to .500, it’s difficult to get excited. Let’s see how the Sox do against Washington at home this week. Despite playing well at Fenway Park versus New York, they still have the worst home record in baseball at 16-25. It was a nice sweep following a dreadful 2-1 series loss in Colorado.
On the topic of the Nats at Sox three-game series beginning on Monday, you won’t find that matchup on this week’s top-five list. Rather, what you’re about to see is an onslaught of NL Central franchises. And by onslaught, I mean all five clubs in the division will be mentioned below. Four out of the top five series include at least one NL Central squad. In fact, each of those four series is between National League franchises.
Fear not, American League fans. Coming in at No. 1 is the only AL series on the list, and it pairs division leaders coming off impressive weekend victories.
No. 1: Rangers (42-42) at Guardians (44-40)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Here come the Texas Rangers. I mentioned the importance of the Rangers-Blue Jays weekend series on Friday. Both teams entered Thursday with losing records, and by the end of Sunday, the Rangers went from four games under .500 at the start of the series to 42-42 after sweeping Toronto at Rogers Centre. That was impressive, and I think it might be time to admit that the Blue Jays are probably not going to be as much of a threat as most pundits (myself included) believed they would be at the start of the campaign. The Rangers handed Toronto their sixth straight loss after completing the four-game sweep, and now it is Texas who officially leads the AL West by a half-game over Seattle.
The Lone Stars can partially thank the club they are about to face in this series for helping them move ahead of Seattle in the division. In Sunday’s rubber game versus the Mariners, Cleveland rallied from a 4-1 deficit with a five-run eighth frame and held on for a 6-5 victory and series win. You can read more about the game’s details in this Monday’s MLB News & Moments article by Steve Drumwright.
We’ll see if the Rangers carry some momentum from Canada to Cleveland. Earlier this month, Texas won two of three contests at home against the Guardians.
No. 2: Pirates (42-42) at Phillies (47-37)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
I nearly put this four-game series at No. 1 given the in-state rivalry and overall relevance to both the NL Central and NL East standings. But in the end, I had to stick with the only series this week involving two division leaders. Thus, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia will have to settle for the No. 2 spot.
These clubs met for three contests in May at PNC Park. Other than the first game of the series, which saw Philadelphia rally from an early six-run deficit to win 11-9 in extras, the matches weren’t particularly thrilling. The Phils went on to shut down the Pirates’ offense with back-to-back 6-0 victories behind stellar pitching performances from Cristopher Sánchez (W, 9 IP, 0 ER, 13 K) and Zack Wheeler (W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 K). What catches my eye in this four-game set about to get underway on Monday is that Sanchez and Wheeler are scheduled to face the same two opponents they defeated in that first series.
Tuesday: PIT – Bubba Chandler (16 G, 15 GS, 3-7, 4.42 ERA) versus PHI – Cristopher Sánchez (17 GS, 9-3, 2.13 ERA)
Wednesday: PIT – Paul Skenes (17 GS, 6-7, 3.10 ERA) versus PHI – Zack Wheeler (12 GS, 8-1, 2.03 ERA)
I’m most interested in the Skenes vs. Wheeler matchup on Wednesday. It’s simple for me. If Skenes isn’t ready to improve upon his five runs allowed over five innings in their last duel, then forget it. Wheeler is a stud who continues to give the Phillies six-plus quality frames nearly every time out.
Here’s the biggest difference between Skenes and Wheeler, and why, for my money, I’ll take the Philadelphia right-hander in a big game any day over Pittsburgh’s ace. The 36-year-old Wheeler is coming off thoracic outlet decompression surgery, and in his 12 starts this season since returning in late April, he has gone at least six innings in 10 of those outings. As for the much younger 24-year-old Skenes, he has made 17 starts, and in only eight of those (not even half), the 2025 NL Cy Young winner managed to get through at least six frames. It’s time for Skenes to step up and go deeper into games, or Pittsburgh will eventually fall out of the playoff race. That’s how important he is to the rotation. A good Skenes over five or so frames is no longer good enough for this franchise.
At 9 ½ games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central, Pittsburgh’s division title hopes are about done. They are only 2 ½ games behind St. Louis for the final wild card position, and are also eyeing the NL WC leader, Philadelphia, who currently has a five-game advantage on the Buccos in the standings. It goes without saying that this series between wild-card hopefuls is probably much more important than most of us realize. This is an opportunity for Pittsburgh to make a statement to the National League against one of the hottest squads in baseball this month. Philadelphia is 17-8 in June and has pulled to within three games of Atlanta in the NL East.
No. 3: Reds (39-43) at Brewers (50-31)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
If there’s one series in this week’s top five that I believe could define a team’s season, this is the one for me. It’s all about the struggling Reds. Four games at American Family Field, a place where the Brewers are 26-17 this season. Milwaukee is coming off a three-game sweep at Cincy just one week ago. It was a relatively low-scoring series that saw the Brew Crew hold the Reds to six runs over three contests and ultimately push the home team to 12 ½ games back in the NL Central. Entering Monday, the Reds are still 11 ½ games behind, and like the aforementioned Pirates, their division title hopes are likely over.
The Reds need a series win. If they can pull off a four-game sweep like Texas just did in Toronto, then they’ll be back to .500, and could be within a couple of games of a wild card position. However, if the reverse happens, and the Brewers sweep them again and improve to 7-0 versus their division rivals, then how many people reading this truly believe that Cincy can recover from that and make a serious postseason push? They are 4 ½ games out of a wild card spot with five clubs between themselves and the third wild-card holder, the St. Louis Cardinals. This is a massive series for a franchise posting the second-worst run differential in the National League at -51.
Keep an eye on Thursday’s series finale. The expected SP matchup pairs two CY Young contenders, both ranked in the National League’s top five in ERA and strikeouts. Cincy’s Chase Burns (16 GS, 9-1, 2.36 ERA, 110 K) takes on Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski (16 GS, 9-3, 1.45 ERA, 146 K). If that battle doesn’t get you in front of a television this week, I don’t know what will.
No. 4: Cardinals (43-38) at Atlanta (49-33)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Struggling. That is the only word needed to describe these current NL playoff squads, who are both 3-7 over their last 10 contests, and narrowly holding onto their wild card and division title hopes, respectively. St. Louis enters this series with a half-game lead over San Diego and Miami for the third NL wild card spot. Atlanta has seen its division lead go from nine games at the start of June to now only three games ahead of the Phillies in the NL East.
We’ll start with the Redbirds, a team that has played .500 baseball since May 1 and has dropped three consecutive series to Kansas City, Arizona, and, most recently, at home to the NL’s best team in June, the Miami Marlins. In those 10 games combined between the three series, St. Louis was held to six or fewer runs in all but one of them. They only scored more than three runs in four of those games, three of which came in losing efforts. What’s my point? The Cardinals’ offense has been dismal, and they seem to only be winning low-scoring contests lately.
The good news for St. Louis is that they are about to take on an Atlanta squad that’s lost five of its last six games and has scored only 13 runs in that span. This isn’t the offensive powerhouse we saw entering June. Georgia’s franchise is the lowest-scoring team in MLB this month with 74 runs across 22 contests. Atlanta is batting an MLB-worst .214 in June (30 points lower than their May batting average).
So, after basically making the case that both of these teams are playing bad baseball, and probably shouldn’t be worthy of a top five spot this week, here we are. I still rank this series at No. 4 because someone has to win it, and if the playoffs started today, this would be one of the Best-of-3 NL Wild Card matchups. Atlanta would be the No. 3 seed, while St. Louis would be the sixth seed.
Who will break through offensively this week? These franchises will meet again for three contests at Busch Stadium right before the All-Star break in July.
No. 5: Padres (43-39) at Cubs (46-38)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Not much of a question at No. 5. I would have ranked this series ahead of St. Louis and Atlanta if San Diego had found a way to win its crucial set at home versus the Dodgers over the weekend. But, as they usually do against their NL West nemesis, the Friars found a way to lose it, this time by coughing up a 1-0 series lead after dropping the final two contests by a combined score of 19-6.
As I said on Friday, the Padres’ only hope of catching Los Angeles in the division was to take at least two of three contests at Petco Park. So instead of being eight games back, had they won on Sunday, they are now 10 games back of MLB’s best club with 80 contests to play. It’s looking like a wild card or nothing for San Diego. The same might have been said for their opponent this week, had Chicago not taken two of three games at Milwaukee to pull within 5 ½ games of the NL Central lead. It’s still an uphill climb to catch the three-time defending division champs, but at least the Cubs are back to performing like the team many thought they’d be at the start of ’26.
The Baby Bears are 14-10 in June and 8-2 over their last 10 games. They currently hold the second NL wild card spot, trailing the Phillies by one game for that all-important No. 1 WC position and home field advantage in the first round. Meanwhile, even though the Padres are playing under .500 this month at 11-13, they are only a half-game out of a WC berth and two games behind Chicago for the No. 2 wild card.
This is a very relevant series between two legit playoff contenders. Two teams that duked it out over three games in the 2025 NLWC at Wrigley Field. A series that saw the winning team score three runs in each contest, and eventually crowned Chicago the winner after a 3-1 victory in Game 3. In late April, the Cubs won two of three matches in San Diego.
Missed the Top Five
White Sox (43-39) at Orioles (39-46): Three games
Tigers (35-49) at Yankees (48-35): Three games
Mets (35-49) at Blue Jays (39-45): Three games
Nationals (43-42) at Red Sox (36-46): Three games
Twins (40-45) at Astros (42-44): Three games
Marlins (44-40) at Rockies (33-51): Three games
Dodgers (54-30) at A’s (40-44): Three games
Angels (36-49) at Mariners (42-43): Three games
Giants (35-48) at Diamondbacks (41-42): Four games
Rays (48-33) at Royals (35-50): Three games
