There’s something nice about a good division race as the calendar nears July. We’re at the halfway point of the season, and one could argue that every division is up for grabs except the NL West, where the Dodgers have a commanding nine-game advantage over the Padres, the club they will visit this weekend in San Diego. I say “commanding,” but then remember that only a few weeks ago, Atlanta had what many considered a commanding lead in the NL East. Georgia’s team entered June with a nine-game advantage in their division, but after losing 11 of 19 contests so far this month, Philadelphia has made a run and is only four games out of first place. I suppose San Diego could do the same to Los Angeles. However, if they don’t win this weekend’s three-game set at home, then most would agree that their division title hopes are over.
This week’s top five won’t include some of those popular rivalries that fan bases get excited for each time they meet. You won’t find the Yankees vs. Red Sox or the Phillies vs. Mets on the big list below. Sorry. Nothing against the Yanks and Phils (two legit World Series contenders), but your opponents are last-place squads in the midst of playing atrocious baseball. I’m not wasting a top-five slot at this point in the season on teams that are a week or two away from being true Trade Deadline sellers. Unless we’re in the final week of the regular season and the playoff field is at stake, you likely won’t be noticing the Red Sox and Mets listed very often in the top five going forward. Of course, if they make serious runs, that can all change.
In case you missed the news, the Mets finally had enough of manager Carlos Mendoza. He was fired on Friday after his team dropped its sixth straight contest following being swept in four games at home by the Cubs this week. He’ll be replaced by the team’s vice president of player development, Andy Green. I’m not sensing a run like the Phillies had when new manager Don Mattingly replaced former skipper Rob Thomson in late April. New York is 9 ½ games out of a wild-card spot with a 34-47 record. They stink.
Let’s stop talking about bad teams and get to the good stuff. This week’s top five series list.
No. 1: Cubs (44-37) at Brewers (49-29)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
For all of the “unworthy” rivalry series taking place this weekend, there are a couple that easily made the top five list. Chicago and Milwaukee are the first and second-place squads in the NL Central. Both are 7-3 over their last 10 contests, and overall, are playing good ball in June.
The Brew Crew dominated the Baby Bears at Wrigley Field in their first get-together back in May. Milwaukee swept that series and outscored Chicago 19-5 in those three victories. Before their first meeting on May 18, the Cubs had a half-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central. Chicago went on to drop five more contests following that set, and finally ended their 10-game losing streak on May 27 at Pittsburgh. The Cubs have gone 15-11 since that losing streak ended.
The bad news for the Cubbies is that Milwaukee has been rolling since that May sweep, and with a 6 ½ game cushion in the NL Central, this series ranks near the top in the all-important factor. There’s no other series with as much division significance, except for perhaps the aforementioned Dodgers-Padres meeting. The Brewers have a chance to put themselves comfortably ahead of Chicago heading into July. They are 25-15 at home, while the Cubs are 21-20 on the road.
The biggest difference between now and five weeks ago, when these franchises last met, is the turnaround by Pete Crow-Armstrong. Crow-Armstrong was hitting below .230 when that series began, and he went 1-for-11 in those three losses while hitting eighth in the lineup. Fast forward to the start of June, and I don’t think there is any doubt who the likely NL Player of the Month will be. Chicago’s centerfielder has completely turned his season around by hitting .409 with 10 long balls, 19 ribbies, and six stolen bases over 21 games played this month. He’s batting .287 on the year and is now pretty much Chicago’s everyday leadoff man. It will be a true test for Crow-Armstrong and the rest of the lineup in Friday’s opener when they face Milwaukee’s Cy Young candidate, Jacob Misiorowski (15 GS, 8-3, 1.45 ERA). Misiorowski tossed six scoreless frames with eight punchouts on May 19 versus the Cubs. He’ll face right-hander Colin Rea in the opener (16 G, 12 GS, 5-5, 4.99 ERA).
No. 2: Dodgers (52-29) at Padres (42-37)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
It’s hard to get overly excited with a series involving the largest gap by far in the standings between the top two clubs of any division in MLB. It’s even more difficult to get overly excited when one of those clubs flat-out owns the other. That’s the case here with Los Angeles and San Diego. The Padres are always a pesky team, and kind of annoy the Dodgers on an annual basis. But, more often than not, the Blue Crew swats them away and ends up on top.
These NL West rivals last met at the exact same time as the No. 1 series on the list. Los Angeles won two of three games, but in the opener, San Diego earned the victory 1-0, as Michael King outdueled Dodgers World Series MVP, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, in a classic contest that saw both pitchers go seven frames. They are both scheduled to start in this series as well. However, they will not battle in a rematch of that exciting May 18 contest. Yamamoto (14 GS, 7-5, 2.65 ERA) will start on Saturday versus Randy Vásquez (15 GS, 6-5, 4.17 ERA). King (16 GS, 5-6, 3.33 ERA) will face Dodgers 26-year-old Emmet Sheehan (14 GS, 3-5, 5.32 ERA) in the series finale on Sunday.
I guess the question is the same as it was when they met a month ago. Are the Padres good enough to hang with the Dodgers in the NL West over 162 games? If they have any hope of doing so, they can’t lose this series. Otherwise, at best, they will be 10 games behind with exactly 80 games remaining on their schedule. They won’t overcome that against MLB’s best club.
No. 3: Mariners (41-41) at Guardians (42-39)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
They met in the first series of the year in late March at Seattle. It was split 2-2, and since then, both franchises have hovered around the .500 mark in MLB’s two weakest divisions. Neither has played particularly well, yet here we are on June 26, and the Mariners lead the AL West by 1 ½ games over three sub-.500 teams. The Guardians are tied with the White Sox atop the AL Central, with Minnesota 4 ½ games back entering Friday.
I suppose it’s not surprising where these teams sit in the overall American League picture. A league that only has five clubs with winning records and only three with a positive run differential. Both division leaders have very good pitching. Seattle’s 3.71 team ERA ranks second in the AL behind the Yankees, while the Guardians staff ranks third with a 3.79 earned run average. On the flip side, these are the two worst-hitting teams in the AL for average and power. Cleveland ranks last in batting average (.228) and slugging percentage (.366). Seattle ranks second to last in those categories with a .231 batting average and .384 slugging percentage. Add it all up, and it’s not shocking to see these squads at or slightly above .500.
Regardless of the records and numbers, these teams remain division leaders amid tight battles. Someone has to win the AL Central and AL West. Right now, these are two of the favorites, making this series at least somewhat interesting, but more so, relevant and important to the other contenders within their respective divisions.
For as solid as the arms have been on both sides throughout the campaign, the majority of expected starting pitchers in this series haven’t thrown well of late. If I’m going to pick one matchup to keep an eye on, then Sunday’s finale between M’s right-hander George Kirby (16 GS, 6-7, 3.94 ERA) and Cleveland’s Gavin Williams (16 GS, 9-4, 3.82 ERA) would be my choice.
No. 4: Marlins (42-39) at Cardinals (42-36)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Who saw this series coming in at No. 4 on June 1? I didn’t. No way. On the final day of May, the Marlins were the NL East’s last-place squad with a record of 26-34. They were six games back of a wild card spot, and over the last 25 days, Miami owns the best record in MLB at 16-5. They’ve gained 4 ½ games in the wild card and are now only 1 ½ games behind the Cardinals for the final NL playoff spot. This is not only an important series for both clubs and the rest of the National League wild-card contenders, but it also pairs two solid teams.
I’m fascinated right now by Miami’s 27-year-old SP Max Meyer. He’s been injury-prone since his 2022 debut. Elbow, shoulder, and hip issues have crushed the early part of his promising career, and before this season, Meyer had never thrown 65 innings in a campaign. Already in 2026, the former Minnesota Golden Gopher has tossed 90 frames spanning 16 starts. He’s 8-0 with a 2.80 ERA and 102 strikeouts. Understandably, there have been some phenomenal SPs ranked ahead of him in the early Cy Young polls, but if there’s a better candidate for NL Comeback Player of the Year right now, I’d love someone to tell me who that is. Meyer went 3-5 with a 4.73 ERA over 64 ⅔ innings in ’25. On the always risky assumption that he can stay healthy, if the Marlins’ ace continues on this path, he’ll get some Cy Young votes as well.
Meyer faces Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy in Friday’s opener (15 GS, 3-6, 3.35 ERA).
No. 5: Rangers (39-42) at Blue Jays (39-42)
Series length: Four games (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday) *Rangers won Thursday’s opener, 6-5.
Alright, alright. I know what some of you are thinking. How can I possibly have two sub-.500 non-division opponents on this weekend’s top five list when a series between winning clubs like the Diamondbacks (41-39) and the Rays (45-33) is on the outside looking in? That’s a fair question, and one I will answer right now.
Texas and Toronto are tied with the Athletics and Astros for the final AL wild card position. It is a true midseason race between mediocre squads. But the overall importance of this series, compared to the Arizona vs. Tampa Bay interleague meeting, is much greater. In fact, Tampa Bay is in a fantastic spot in the AL right now, holding a comfortable 7 ½ game lead on the four wild card hopefuls mentioned above. The Rays’ only goal at the moment is to stay close to the Yankees in the AL East, currently two games back. As far as Arizona is concerned, I’m pretty sure they’ll get some ink soon enough. In early July, the Diamondbacks end the first half of the year with consecutive series against the Brewers, Padres, and Dodgers. If at least one of those matchups doesn’t make the top five list, then something is wrong with me at that point, and I’ll have to apologize to all D-backs fans.
I admit, it is difficult to sell clubs that are a combined 18-23 this month. They aren’t playing well, and when I think about Texas, despite the Rangers taking the first game of this series on Thursday, 6-5, I have to remember that this year’s roster is nowhere near the one that led the American League in 2023 with a .789 OPS, en route to the World Series title. Texas is currently 10th in the AL with a .710 OPS, and ranks 12th in runs scored.
Toronto and Texas will meet again in mid-September, in what might be another battle between losing clubs trying to earn a wild-card berth.
Missed the Top Five
Astros (40-33) at Tigers (34-47): Four games *Astros won Thursday’s opener, 2-1.
Reds (37-42) at Pirates (41-40): Three games
Nationals (41-41) at Orioles (38-44): Three games
Diamondbacks (41-39) at Rays (45-33): Three games
Phillies (45-36) at Mets (34-47): Three games
Yankees (48-32) at Red Sox (33-46): Four games *Red Sox won Thursday’s opener, 6-3.
Royals (34-48) at White Sox (41-38): Three games
Rockies (32-49) at Twins (38-44): Three games
A’s (39-42) at Angels (34-48): Three games
Atlanta (48-31) at Giants (33-47): Three games
