Something struck me today for the first time this season as I was making the top-five series list. It didn’t take long to ask myself, “Where are all the good matchups?” It’s a strange few days ahead of us. Out of the 10 series beginning on Monday, followed by five more getting underway on Tuesday, only one of them pairs two winning clubs. That would be the Brewers (74-44) at Padres (62-57). Every other series, with the exception of Philadelphia (63-56) at St. Louis (59-59), has at least one losing franchise participating. Considering that there are 14 winning teams right now in MLB, I was surprised that only one series involves two squads over .500.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that only the Brewers-Padres series has relevance and intrigue. But, because of the good combined records, I’m rewarding that matchup with the No. 1 spot on the top-five list. We’ll begin there and see what follows.
No. 1: Brewers (74-44) at Padres (62-57)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
If this series had a title other than something along the lines of ‘The Lone Battle Between Winning Clubs’, I’d probably go with something like ‘The Series of New Faces’. Three of the six expected SPs taking the mound over the next few days were traded last week, and each will be making his second start in a new uniform.
San Diego will send former Tigers right-hander Casey Mize to the bump in Monday’s opener, where he’ll face Milwaukee’s Logan Henderson (10 GS, 6-1, 2.70 ERA). Mize has a 4-7 record over 17 starts this season with a 3.40 ERA. However, in his Padres debut last Wednesday at Arizona, the 29-year-old surrendered eight earned runs over 3 ⅓ frames for the loss.
Wednesday’s series finale will pair the other new faces. The Brewers are expected to go with Dustin May, a pitcher who held Milwaukee to one earned run over 11 ⅔ innings this year while playing with the Cardinals. May’s debut start last Thursday versus Pittsburgh went well (W, 6 IP, 2 ER). He’ll face former Giants southpaw Robbie Ray, whose first outing with San Diego on Friday left a lot to be desired. Ray gave up four runs over five frames in a loss to the Astros, and finished the contest with two punchouts and five walks.
This series will see two of the hottest teams in the National League. Both are 7-3 over their last 10 contests. San Diego is 4-0-1 in its last five series, while Milwaukee has won three straight sets to begin August. The Brewers hold a comfortable 5 ½ game lead over Chicago in the NL Central and own the league’s best record by three games over Atlanta and four over Los Angeles. San Diego’s NL West title hopes are slim at 8 ½ games back of the Dodgers, but they only trail Arizona and Philadelphia by one game in the wild-card race.
In May, the Brewers won two of three contests at home against the Friars in their only get-together this season.
No. 2: Red Sox (64-53) at Blue Jays (56-63)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
I’m going to give Toronto a B+ for last week’s efforts. The Blue Jays went 4-3 on the road against the Astros, Cubs, and Phillies. They won both series, 2-1, versus Houston and Philadelphia, while dropping a makeup game at Wrigley Field on Thursday. In the process, they made up one game overall in the AL wild-card picture, and entering this crucial four-game series with Boston, the defending American League champs are 3 ½ games out of the playoffs.
I get it. In the big picture, it’s not saying a whole lot considering that the Blue Jays are seven games under .500 and must pass at least six teams that are tied or ahead of them in the wild-card race. The clock is ticking with 43 games remaining on the schedule, and the best news for Toronto this week is that their next seven games are at home, albeit versus two of the top three American League clubs by record. Following this series with Boston, the Jays welcome the Yankees to town for three contests.
My feeling regarding Toronto is similar to the one I mentioned on Friday about Seattle. The upcoming schedule is incredibly challenging, and given that Canada’s team is an uninspiring 28-44 against winning franchises, I’m not seeing how they come out of the next two weeks in a better position than they currently are. Next week, the Jays play at Tampa Bay and New York in another meeting with the Pinstripes.
On the other side, Boston is looking healthy in the overall playoff picture. At 5 ½ games ahead of Texas for the second AL wild-card spot, the Sox have to feel good about where they are despite a bad series loss over the weekend to the A’s. I thought Boston would have no issues with Sacramento, but after a dominant opening victory on Friday, 13-1, they dropped the next two contests for their first series loss since July 1. Entering this week, they trail New York by 1 ½ games for the top wild-card position, and after Tampa Bay’s sweep of Seattle, Boston is seven games behind in the AL East race.
Toronto is 6-3 versus Boston this season, and in their only meeting at Rogers Centre back in April, the Jays won two of three contests. Monday’s opener will pair the AL wins leader, Sox right-hander Sonny Gray (21 GS, 14-2, 2.78 ERA), and Toronto’s recent acquisition, former Cubs veteran Jameson Taillon (16 GS, 2-6, 5.96 ERA).
No. 3: Guardians (58-61) at Tigers (58-60)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
It appears the other franchise I need to start considering as a potential AL Central champion is the Detroit Tigers. I’ve mentioned the White Sox and Guardians more often than not as likely division champs, with the Twins scattered in there occasionally. I would say that Cleveland and Chicago have gotten more ink in the top-five list by far over the other three clubs in their division, and rightfully so. The AL Central lead has been held by one of those two teams on the first day of every month since May, and entering this week, Chicago has a 3 ½ game advantage over Detroit for the top spot. Right behind the Tigers, both Cleveland and Minnesota trail by four games in the division, which means we have a legitimate multi-team race on our hands.
There are two questions we should ask ourselves about the AL Central.
- Which of these teams has the best chance to take the division?
- How many of the four AL Central contenders will make the playoffs?
If the answer to the second question is one, then the answer to the first question becomes all the more intriguing. The way it looks right now, whoever claims the third wild card berth in the American League could be under .500. Only five AL squads have winning records, and Houston is one of them at one game over .500. Texas holds the third wild-card spot with a 59-59 record, and right behind them are six teams with losing records that are all within 3 ½ games of the third WC. It’s not pretty, but someone has to be the No. 6 seed, and your guess as to who that will be is as good as mine. It’s a crapshoot.
What does all of this mean for Cleveland and Detroit? I feel it tells us that the likelihood of both AL Central postseason representatives from a year ago playing in October again is very slim. With that in mind, the importance of this series is incredibly high. Yes, they are both fighting for the AL Central crown, but the final AL wild-card spot is closer for the taking than the division is right now. Detroit, winners of three straight series, is one game behind Texas for the third WC, while Cleveland, losers of three straight sets, is 1 ½ back.
Despite the Guardians’ recent struggles, they have one thing going for them over Detroit that could help build momentum. Cleveland is 6-0 versus the Tigers this year. They’ve played each other close (every game but one decided by two runs or fewer), but keep in mind that the Guardians haven’t lost a season series against the Tigers since 2023. Detroit will need to win the final seven meetings of ’26 to break that modest streak.
No. 4: Phillies (63-56) at Cardinals (59-59)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Being that this is one of only two series involving clubs with .500 or better records, I felt the No. 4 position made sense. Philadelphia is coming off a series loss at home to the Blue Jays, and right now, they are anything but safe when it comes to their playoff future. Unlike the American League, where a bunch of losing clubs are all fighting it out for the third WC spot, the National League’s wild-card picture looks completely different. Philadelphia and Arizona are tied for the second and third WC positions. Their records are respectable, at seven games over .500, but a series loss by either this week (D-backs host Colorado for three games) could put them on the outside of the postseason picture come Thursday.
The good news for Philly and Arizona is that unlike the AL, there aren’t a half-dozen teams within 3 ½ games of stealing their playoff spots. What we’re starting to see in the National League is a little space between the wild-card holders and those hoping to overtake them. Other than San Diego at one game behind, only Miami and St. Louis are within 3 ½ games of the wild card. Having to worry about a few franchises is far less stressful than having to keep an eye on six of them, as is the case for Texas in the Junior Circuit. Obviously, this could all change on a dime if sub-.500 clubs like the Nationals, Pirates, and Reds get hot. But right now, I think we’re looking at five teams fighting for two spots.
The only potential bad news for Philly is that they will face one of those clubs within 3 ½ games beginning on Monday. If the Phillies are swept, then St. Louis could be within a half-game of a playoff spot depending on other results. This is the first meeting of the year between these storied franchises. We’ll have a pretty good idea how these squads match up over the next two weeks. The Redbirds travel to Citizens Bank Park for a three-game set beginning on August 21.
No. 5: Mariners (56-63) at Yankees (66-52)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Now to the series that I struggled to put in the five-hole. Folks, I said last Friday that I’ve given up on the Mariners. That was before they were swept at home by Tampa Bay over the weekend. Now, I think Seattle is finished. Truly. If the M’s had shown any signs of an offensive heartbeat (four runs over three games versus Tampa Bay) and were still swept by the American League’s top dog, then I’d at least have something positive to say about the bats heading into what is the start of the most grueling schedule for the remainder of August that any MLB club will face.
Seattle plays five consecutive series against current playoff teams beginning on Tuesday with the Yankees (followed by 3 games at Houston, 3 at Milwaukee, 3 vs. Cubs, 3 vs. Phillies). Considering that last year’s AL West champs are the worst offensive squad in baseball as far as I’m concerned (last in runs scored and batting average, and in the bottom few in just about every other major offensive category), I think they are doomed, even if their pitching staff performs well.
There’s no sign of life offensively, and unless Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh are about to go on a rampage and actually hit the way we’ve come to expect them to, then there’s no chance Seattle comes out of this stretch alive. Rodriguez, known for his second-half bat, has been stale over 21 games since the All-Star break (his .256/.318/.423 slash line is nearly identical to his first-half numbers). Then there’s Raleigh, oblique issues or not, who has gone from having the best power season by any catcher in MLB history to one with a dozen homers and a batting average way south of the Mendoza line at .161. Your two best players can’t be this bad. End of story.
I’ve just made a case against having this series in the top five, but when you look at the 10 matchups below that missed this week’s cut, it’s tough to find a better one. The Yankees are playing decently and are right in the thick of a race with Tampa Bay and Boston for playoff positioning. If (and a big IF) Seattle can manage a series win in the Bronx, then maybe they can gain a game or two on Houston and Texas in the AL West. However, at four games back of the division lead, and the upcoming gauntlet they must go through over their next 12 contests, I’m not seeing a scenario where the M’s are any closer in the division race by September.
Missed the Top Five
Mets (52-67) at Atlanta (71-47): Three games
Orioles (57-61) at Twins (58-61): Three games
Rangers (59-59) at Angels (45-73): Four games
Rockies (46-72) at Diamondbacks (63-56): Three games
Rays (71-46) at A’s (47-71): Three games
Astros (60-59) at Giants (49-69): Three games
Royals (49-70) at Dodgers (70-48): Three games
Pirates (58-62) at Marlins (60-59): Three games
Cubs (69-50) at Nationals (59-61): Three games
Reds (56-61) at White Sox (61-56): Three games
