This is in no way a show of disrespect to the Boston Red Sox. A franchise that just won its ninth straight series and eighth straight contest after sweeping the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox at home. But when your next opponent is a club that hasn’t come close to achieving a winning month since April, and whose record since the start of July is nearly the complete opposite of your own, I can’t find a place for you in this weekend’s top-five series list.
The opponent Boston faces next is the Sacramento Athletics, or, as they are still listed on most standings pages, just the plain old Athletics. The A’s have a 5-24 record since July 1. Over that same span, Boston has gone an MLB-best 26-4. I expect the Sox to pummel the former squad from Oakland this weekend, and have no reason to waste a top-five spot on a series featuring the hottest and coldest teams in baseball. Instead, what you’ll see below are five series involving 10 playoff contenders all fighting for postseason positioning.
Let’s begin.
No. 1: Dodgers (69-46) at Diamondbacks (61-55)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Who would have thought Los Angeles would enter this series on a six-game losing streak? Probably not many of you reading this. But even with that slide, the Dodgers are still comfortably ahead by 8 ½ games in the NL West over this weekend’s opponent, the Arizona Diamondbacks. I said in last Friday’s MLB Weekend Series Preview that the Blue Crew had a cakewalk to a division title. At that time, the two-time defending World Series champs had a 12-game lead over Arizona, and they haven’t won since. Has my mind about this division race changed? Not one bit.
This series is all about the Diamondbacks. They could sweep this three-game set at home, and they’d still trail the Dodgers by 5 ½ games with 43 contests to play in the regular season. By that point, I’d raise some red flags about L.A., but would I be concerned if they lost their ninth straight match? Probably not. We’re not looking at a Sacramento A’s situation here. The Dodgers will not go 5-24 over their next 29 games. They are too good, and I expect we’ll see a well-played series by the road team this weekend.
Back to Arizona. After coming off a four-game split this week with the other NL West wild-card contender, the San Diego Padres, the D-backs remained in the third WC position by one game over the Friars. The good news for both squads is that no other wild-card contender is within two games of the postseason. The Marlins have lost three straight, St. Louis continues to play up-and-down baseball, and Cincy is the hottest team of the WC contenders after winning their fourth straight match on Thursday, but still trail Arizona by four games. As for the Pirates and Nats, who were legitimate wild-card threats a little over a week ago, they are both 2-8 over their last 10 contests. I don’t believe either franchise has a realistic shot at making a playoff run at 4 ½ and 5 ½ games out of the race, respectively.
The last time these clubs met, the Snakes swept the Dodgers on the road right before the All-Star break. Arizona outscored Los Angeles 23-8 over their three victories, and since that series, they have a 12-8 record and went from 2 ½ games out of a wild-card spot to where they are now. These teams have split their head-to-head meetings, 5-5, and this will be the last time they face each other during the regular season.
A couple of good pitching matchups to keep an eye on as well, including Sunday, when, arguably, the top two “anti-strikeout” pitchers battle in the series finale. Here are the expected pairings:
Friday: LAD – Roki Sasaki (19 GS, 5-5, 4.64 ERA) versus ARI – Merrill Kelly (20 GS, 8-9, 5.04 ERA)
Saturday: LAD – Yoshinobu Yamamoto (20 GS, 11-7, 2.76 ERA) versus ARI – Brandon Pfaadt (20 G, 10 GS, 6-1, 3.66 ERA)
Sunday: LAD – Justin Wrobleski (19 G, 18 GS, 11-3, 3.31 ERA) versus ARI – Eduardo Rodriguez (23 GS, 10-4, 2.71 ERA)
No. 2: Atlanta (70-45) at Yankees (64-51)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
One could argue that from an importance standpoint, this series means more to the Yankees than it does Atlanta. New York is suddenly in a race with Boston for the top AL wild-card position and leads the Red Sox by a half-game entering this series with the NL East’s best team. In fact, the American League’s top three clubs by record all reside in the AL East, and the way things are going in the Junior Circuit, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if that holds for the rest of the campaign.
The next closest squad outside of the AL East to the third-place Red Sox is Chicago, who, after being swept at Fenway Park on Thursday, are four games behind Boston in the standings. But, all in all, none of that matters because regardless of what the final overall standings are in the American League, only one team from the AL East will earn a first-round bye to the ALDS, while the runner-up, if things hold, would be the league’s top wild-card. As I said, the importance of this series and every other that follows for the Yankees is far greater than what Atlanta is playing for right now.
Georgia’s team is on an eight-game winning streak after sweeping the Marlins on Thursday. At 8 ½ games up in the NL East, they are tied with the Dodgers for the largest division lead in baseball, and at this point are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Milwaukee has a two-game lead over Atlanta for the best record in MLB.
These are two of the best pitching clubs in baseball. New York has MLB’s best team ERA at 3.33, while Atlanta’s staff ranks fifth with a 3.63 earned run average. I have my eye on Saturday’s expected pitching duel between Atlanta’s ace Chris Sale (20 GS, 12-6, 2.08 ERA) and New York’s Gerrit Cole (13 GS, 5-5, 3.42 ERA). However, Friday’s pitching matchup has some intrigue as well. Former Atlanta southpaw Max Fried (13 GS, 4-3, 3.12 ERA) will take on right-hander Tyler Mahle (18 GS, 3-9, 5.13 ERA). The 31-year-old is making his Atlanta debut after being traded from the Giants at the Trade Deadline.
No. 3: Guardians (57-59) at White Sox (59-55)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Play better, and maybe this series gets a top two spot on this list. Play mediocre, as these teams are, then a No. 3 ranked matchup between two clubs duking it out for an AL Central crown seems about right.
Both franchises were swept this week. As mentioned earlier, the White Sox dropped three straight at Fenway Park. As for the Guardians, they looked dismal at home versus the Mets. It was a series in which Cleveland blew leads on Wednesday and Thursday to the NL East’s worst team. Getting swept at home happens. Getting swept in your own park by the 50-66 Mets should never happen.
With that said, the standings in the AL Central haven’t changed much since the Trade Deadline, and after Minnesota lost two of three contests to the last-place Kansas City Royals this week, I’m having a hard time getting excited about three mediocre clubs fighting for division supremacy. The AL East has my attention and excites me. The AL Central has my attention, but I truly don’t care who wins it because none of these teams are making a serious playoff run. You heard it here first.
The bottom line – This is still a very important series between two division contenders separated by three games in the standings. Chicago is 4-3 versus Cleveland this season, and they’ll face off again in September at Progressive Field.
No. 4: Astros (59-57) at Padres (60-56)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
This series actually excites me more than the Chicago-Cleveland matchup above. If these clubs were in the same league, I’d definitely rank it higher on the list given how well they are playing (both have 7-3 records over their last 10 games) and where they are in their respective races (Houston leads the AL West by 1 ½ games over Texas. San Diego is one game behind Arizona for the third NL WC spot and two games behind Philadelphia for the second WC position).
A couple of players that have surprisingly caught my eye of late. San Diego’s first baseman Ty France has a .291 batting average over 90 contests this year. France hasn’t been on many fantasy baseball radars since his prime years with Seattle in ’21 and ’22. I’ve enjoyed watching him turn things around this season; not only has his batting average improved, but his power has been there as well. France has 16 homers and is four long balls shy of his career high of 20 set in ’22. His .354/.391/.620 slash line in the second half has made him one of the unsung heroes for San Diego this season.
As for Houston, here comes their future HOFer and three-time batting champion, Mr. Jose Altuve. The second baseman is only hitting .244 on the year, but over his last four contests he’s gone 9-for-18 at the dish and hasn’t struck out yet in August. Even though Altuve is not the all-around player that he once was, when he’s hitting well, I like the Astros’ chances a heckuva lot more. We’ll see if his hot streak continues this weekend.
No. 5: Rays (68-46) at Mariners (56-60)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Here’s what I think will happen to these clubs by the time September arrives. Tampa Bay will still have a healthy lead in the AL East over the Yanks and Red Sox. Seattle will continue to slide further and further down the standings and will be out of the AL West race with a month to go. That’s a bold prediction, but I’m sticking with it given the upcoming schedule for both teams.
Let’s start with Tampa Bay. Yes, the Red Sox are on an incredible run and have come out of nowhere to at least force Tampa Bay to take notice. However, the Rays are consistent. They don’t need long winning streaks to win this division. What they have done better than any other American League team is play consistent baseball from beginning to end. Now, in fairness, we still have the rest of August and September to go, and maybe Tampa Bay blows its division lead with an uncharacteristically bad stretch of play. But I think it’s more likely that two more winning months are added to their resume (only AL team to not have a losing month this year), and Boston and New York fall back a bit.
As for the M’s, I give up. They were just hammered at home by a Detroit club that lost its top two arms at the Trade Deadline (Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize) and kind of made it known that they aren’t too concerned about going for it this season, even though they are only one game back of a wild-card berth. However, that series loss is not even what concerns me most about Seattle going forward. All I’m looking at is their 19-22 record versus winning teams and their upcoming schedule beginning this weekend against six franchises with records above .500. After this series with Tampa Bay, the Mariners play nine straight contests on the road versus the Yankees, Astros, and Brewers before returning home to face the top two National League wild-card holders, the Cubs and Phillies. Good luck to you, Seattle.
Don’t get me wrong. Tampa Bay versus Seattle is still top-five worthy. Both teams are eyeing the playoffs, and with the M’s desperately needing to win a series at home before embarking on a massive road trip next week, this three-game set is all the more important. When you add in the expected pitching matchups, it’s difficult to leave this series off the big list.
Expected pitching matchups:
Friday: TB – Drew Rasmussen (21 GS, 10-5, 2.91 ERA) versus SEA – Logan Gilbert (22 GS, 8-6, 3.46 ERA)
Saturday: TB – Griffin Jax (29 G, 18 GS, 6-9, 3.63 ERA) versus SEA – George Kirby (21 GS, 8-9, 3.76 ERA)
Sunday: TB – Ian Seymour (37 G, 8 GS, 8-3, 4.27 ERA) versus SEA – Emerson Hancock (21 GS, 6-6, 3.33 ERA)
Missed the Top Five
Mets (50-66) at Pirates (57-60): Three games
Blue Jays (54-62) at Phillies (62-54): Three games
Reds (56-58) at Nationals (56-61): Three games
A’s (45-70) at Red Sox (63-51): Three games
Angels (44-71) at Marlins (58-58): Three games
Twins (57-59) at Brewers (72-43): Three games
Cubs (67-49) at Royals (48-68): Three games
Rockies (45-70) at Cardinals (57-58): Three games
Orioles (56-59) at Rangers (57-58): Three games
Tigers (56-59) at Giants (48-67): Three games
