I have a new rule for MLB Series Preview:
If a club wins a series, 2-1, but in that one loss manages to surrender 20-plus runs, they are banned from the top five list in the following edition of MLB Series Preview. That was just an atrocious effort by the Athletics‘ pitching staff on Sunday.
After the A’s won the first two contests versus Colorado in that band box known as Las Vegas Stadium, they went on to allow the Rockies to score 23 times during Sunday’s 14-run loss. Yes, the A’s won the series, but because of that blowout loss in the final contest of the year at their Triple-A stadium, they managed to get outscored 32-22 over the three games by MLB’s worst franchise.
Given my new law on disqualifications from the top five, this week’s selections are a little easier. The A’s (35-36) are hosting the Pirates (36-36) for three games at their actual home field, Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Both squads are in the thick of a playoff race, but given that this is an interleague matchup between two teams hovering around .500, I have no issues keeping a borderline top-five series off the list. Plus, with my new rule in place, I must follow it for the time being.
Every team in this week’s top five has a .500 or better record. Two series involve NL squads; one series is an AL-only matchup; and the others are interleague battles.
We’re off.
No. 1: White Sox (38-32) at Yankees (43-27)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
I had a little back-and-forth between this series and the second one you’ll read about below. The combined records between the two clubs in this week’s No. 2 spot are five games better than the White Sox/Yankees combined 81-59 record. That’s not to say I’m second-guessing my choice for this week’s No. 1 position. I’m just saying, by the combined records, No. 2 could easily have landed here.
Why didn’t it? For starters, this is an AL matchup between two division leaders who are playing surprisingly well against some pretty good clubs over the last week-plus without, arguably, their most important bats. The Yankees haven’t had the services of Aaron Judge since May 31 (IL-ribs), and the White Sox will be without rookie first baseman Munetaka Murakami (IL-hammy) for the rest of this month, if not longer. Yet, Chicago has found a way to win consecutive series at home against the National League’s top squads, Atlanta and Los Angeles, with a combined record of 4-1 in those contests. Meanwhile, the Yankees swept the first-place Guardians last week before winning two of three contests in Toronto over the weekend.
It’s becoming obvious that both clubs can still score plenty of runs without their stud bats. The Sox scored 15 runs over their three games with the Dodgers, while the Yankees touched home plate 16 times against the Jays. Against two solid pitching staffs, those were nice offensive performances by both teams.
I’m excited to see which squad caves in this three-game set beginning on Tuesday, and if the opening pitching matchup between Chicago’s Davis Martin (13 GS, 9-1, 2.41 ERA) and New York’s Gerrit Cole (4 GS, 1-1, 2.45 ERA) doesn’t excite you, then maybe this series isn’t for you. Tuesday’s matchup should be a great test for both offenses.
No. 2: Rays (41-27) at Dodgers (45-27)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Now to this week’s easy runner-up. An interleague series between two of the top five teams in MLB cannot fall further down the list. That wouldn’t be justified, especially when accounting for the potential splendid pitching duels we might see throughout. Here’s the expected SP matchups:
Monday: TB – Nick Martinez (13 GS, 6-2, 2.43 ERA) versus LAD – Eric Lauer (11 G, 9 GS, 2-5, 5.47 ERA)
Tuesday: TB – Drew Rasmussen (13 GS, 6-2, 2.71 ERA) versus LAD – Justin Wrobleski (12 G, 11 GS, 7-2, 2.95 ERA)
Wednesday: TB – Shane McClanahan (13 GS, 6-4, 3.23 ERA) versus LAD – Shohei Ohtani (11 GS, 6-2, 1.06 ERA)
On paper, there’s no doubt who the better team is overall. We all know it’s the Dodgers. They are at or near the top of so many offensive and pitching categories that it makes almost every other franchise look second-rate at this point. However, Tampa Bay is only two games behind Los Angeles in the overall standings. Right now, it’s looking like one of five clubs will take that No. 1 overall seed in the postseason. The two teams playing in this series, along with Atlanta, the Yankees, and the Brewers, are all within 3 ½ games of the top seed. Every other squad is seven or more games behind Atlanta for the overall No. 1.
I don’t want to go too stat-crazy today, but there are four key numbers that, right now, I believe explain why the Rays and Dodgers are legit title contenders. The Dodgers rank at the top of MLB in BA, OBP, starter ERA, and starter WHIP. The Rays rank third overall in those same categories.
This is the definition of a great interleague series. Tune in when you can.
No. 3: Padres (37-33) at Cardinals (38-31)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
For this matchup, we’ll go with a common phrase used among baseball folk – If the playoffs started today. Why? Because if the playoffs started today, both of these NL franchises would be in. The Cardinals hold the top wild card position by one game over the Phillies, and 1 ½ games over the third WC holder, their opponent this week, the San Diego Padres.
The Cards have won three straight series, including their last two on the road versus the Mets and the Twins. They return to St. Louis for this short three-game homestand with the Friars before heading back on the road for a trio of contests this weekend at Kansas City. As for the Padres, they are in the midst of a nine-game road trip that began in Baltimore over the weekend, a series they won 2-1. After this set with the Redbirds, San Diego heads to Texas for three contests before returning home next week.
These clubs split a four-game series at San Diego in early May. I’m keeping an eye on the scorching hot Alec Burleson. The Cardinals’ first baseman has homered six times and driven in 16 runs during his current 14-game hitting streak dating back to May 30. He’s gone yard in five of the Cardinals’ last six contests, and for the campaign he’s up to a .287/.352/.496 slash line.
No. 4: Marlins (36-36) at Phillies (38-33)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Who is the hottest team in baseball this month? That would be the Miami Marlins with a 10-2 record in June. The Fish have won all four of their series this month, while posting an MLB-best 2.52 ERA in the process. So far this month, no other franchise has an ERA under 3.00.
Now the Marlins head to Philadelphia to close out a short six-game road trip. The Phillies won three out of four contests at Miami in early May. That was their only get-together so far in ’26. The difficulty for the Marlins this season hasn’t been at home (except, of course, for that first series versus Philly). Miami is 23-16 at LoanDepot Park. Their problem has been on the road, where they hold a 13-20 record entering this week.
In a glass-half-full view, you could see the positive in the Marlins 5-1 road record this month. Maybe things are turning around at just the right time for a team that is only two games out of a wild-card spot. Philadelphia is one of many clubs fighting for wild-card positioning with Miami. This is an important division set between two teams that have a combined 7-1 series record this month.
No. 5: Guardians (39-33) at Brewers (43-26)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
The second series of the week involving division leaders comes with this interleague dandy between the Central Division’s first-place clubs. The Guardians are tied with Chicago atop the AL Central, while the Brewers are five games ahead of St. Louis in the NL Central.
Given the strong combined records of these teams, this series’ No. 5 ranking might seem a bit low. However, I’m deducting some points on the excitement scale after Cleveland’s massive loss on Saturday to their third baseman, José Ramírez (10-day IL with a broken left hamate bone). It was a slowish start to the season for Ramirez anyway (.239/.339/.418 slash line), but it’s still José Ramírez, and his loss is likely a game-changer for Cleveland’s offense. We’ll see how the Guardians fare at the start of their nine-game road trip beginning at Milwaukee on Tuesday. They’ll travel to Houston and Chicago to face the White Sox following this series.
The Brew Crew is coming off a dramatic 2-1 series win over Philadelphia, with its two aces shutting down the road squad’s offense on Friday and Sunday. Between Jacob Misiorowski’s complete game one-hit masterpiece in the opener and Kyle Harrison’s six shutout frames in Sunday’s rubber game, finding a better 1-2 punch in the majors right now is a difficult task. Misiorowski and Harrison have a combined record of 16-3 on the season, and neither pitcher has lost a game since April. The good news for the visitors is that they won’t have to face either of Milwaukee’s aces in this series.
Missed the Top Five
Royals (29-43) at Nationals (37-35): Three games
Mets (32-29) at Reds (33-37): Three games
Rockies (27-45) at Cubs (37-35): Three games
Twins (33-40) at Rangers (35-36): Three games
Tigers (29-42) at Astros (33-40): Three games
Angels (29-43) at Diamondbacks (36-35): Three games
Pirates (36-36) at A’s (35-36): Three games
Blue Jays (34-38) at Red Sox (29-40): Three games
Giants (29-43) at Atlanta (46-25): Three games
Orioles (34-39) at Mariners (37-36): Three games
