Last week, we looked at a number of players, six to be exact, who could see their fantasy prospects positively impacted by a real-life trade ahead of this month’s trade deadline.
Those six from last week? Garrett Crochet, his White Sox teammate Luis Robert Jr., Ryan McMahon of the Rockies, Marlins hitters Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jesus Sanchez, as well as Oakland A’s slugger Brent Rooker.
All six could be in significantly better fantasy situations if they’re traded; trades that could be significant for fantasy managers in pursuit of league titles.
Fortunately, those six aren’t the only players who could benefit fantasy-wise from a real-life deal. More on some of the other players shortly, but finding players who fit the aforementioned description can be key this time of year.
Here are some (more) of those players.
Pitching on a struggling Marlins team that traded Luis Arraez on May 4, there was no guarantee that Scott (if he was traded) would continue to close games for a contending team.
At that point, Scott had walked as many batters (16) as he had struck out in 16 innings of work, pitching to a 2.25 ERA, but also a 4.97 FIP and a .171 BABIP.
His swinging strike percentage at that point was down to 10.6% after finishing at a career-best 17.4% in 2023.
Overall, not a great start.
The veteran left-hander very much looked like a reliever who might be dropped in a considerable number of leagues mid-season in the event that he was traded in July.
Now, that doesn’t quite look like it’ll be the case.
Of course, Scott still stands out as a speculative trade candidate pitching on a Marlins team with the league’s third-worst run differential and second-worst record, but he’s been decidedly better lately, posting numbers very much in line with his breakout season in 2023.
For the year, Scott now owns a 1.34 ERA and 3.43 FIP in 40.1 innings. He also sits in the 83rd percentile or better in ground ball rate, hard-hit rate, whiff rate, xBA, strikeout rate, and xERA. The whiff rate (32.8%, ranking in the 92nd percentile) and hard-hit rate (29.0%, ranking in the 98th percentile) in particular stand out.
And oh yeah, he’s given up all of two earned runs in those 24.1 innings since May 13.
We’re now to the point where Scott’s fantasy ceiling the rest of the way, in the event that the Marlins trade him, depends more on any potential team that acquires him. He’s been extremely effective to the point that unless a team has a dominant, established closer, it’s easy to see Scott stepping into a closing role with a number of clubs if he’s traded.
Speculatively speaking (and on paper) among the clubs that make sense on paper for Scott include the Giants, Dodgers, Reds, and Royals. You could add the Yankees to that mix if Clay Holmes‘ recent struggles continue. The Orioles too if Craig Kimbrel endures a rough stretch. Even on a team like the Mariners or Twins, where saves are spread around a bit, it isn’t hard to imagine Scott logging double-digit saves in the event of a trade. Again, this is all entirely speculative on my part, but the fact remains that the hard-throwing left-hander would be an excellent fantasy fit in a number of contending teams’ bullpens.
If he is traded, and with 14 saves already, Scott should be in an excellent position to easily surpass his previous career high for saves, which was 20 back in 2022. In fact, given the right fantasy scenario, it’s feasible that Scott finishes with more saves this season than he collected (32) in the last two seasons combined.
Speaking of dominant closers, Miller has been about as dominant as a closer can be this season.
The 25-year-old has struck out 70 batters in just 39.2 innings, pitching to a 2.27 ERA and a 1.67 FIP while adding 15 saves and a pitcher win. He’s given up just 14 walks and 10 earned runs all season.
Want more dominant Miller stats?
He ranks in the 100th percentile in whiff rate and strikeout rate. And chase rate. And xERA… And average fastball velocity. Also xBA.
The 30.3% hard-hit rate that he’s limited batters to just fell short of making that list. It ranks all the way down in the 95th percentile.
So you get it, Mason Miller is very good, both at closing games in real life and as a fantasy option. In truth, he’s already a league-winner given the superb production he’s turned in so far.
But, in the hypothetical event that the A’s trade the right-hander, his fantasy ceiling would jump even more so. A ceiling somewhere in the top 25 seems about right. And while that might seem high, that’s what the pairing of Miller’s dominant numbers with consistent save chances has a chance of resulting in.
Vladimir Guerreo Jr.
Back in early May, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a player to trade for in fantasy leagues, what with a .229 average, a .331 on-base percentage, and a .119 ISO in his first 136 plate appearances.
Despite the unideal surface-level metrics, the slugger was sporting an 11.1% barrel rate, a .364 xwOBA, a 53.3% hard-hit rate, and just a 20.6% strikeout rate.
That aformentioned column was from May 2.
Since then, the positive regression has certainly kicked in where Guerrero Jr.’s numbers are concerned.
The slugger was one of the best hitters in baseball during that span, and his quality of contact metrics for the season read like a batter who is too.
The 25-year-old ranks in the 94th percentile or better in xwOBA (.383, 94th), xSLG (.527, 94th), xBA (.300, 96th), and hard-hit rate (56.1%, 98th). He’s also sitting in the 93rd percentile in bat speed (75.4 MPH) and the 85th in barrel rate (12.4%).
Which is all excellent and positions Guerrero Jr. to be in and around the top 25 fantasy hitters for the rest of the season, particularly in leagues where on-base percentage is part of the scoring.
The only thing is, Toronto has struggled mightily to score runs at times this season.
Entering the All-Star break, the Blue Jays have outscored just five Major League teams. The American League East franchise has been a bit better where collective wRC+ and on-base percentage are concerned, sitting more middle of the pack with both metrics, but on the whole, it’s not exactly an optimal fantasy situation for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s fantasy ceiling, especially with Bo Bichette struggling to a 69 wRC+ in his first 328 plate appearances this season.
As with all the players on this list, there’s no guarantee Guerrero Jr. will be traded this month by the Blue Jays. However, hypothetically speaking, put him in a lineup that is in either the top half of the league, or the top 10 in all of the aforementioned categories, and his ceiling raises to that of a top-10 overall player.
He’s been that good. He just needs that good of a lineup around him.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter).
There’s no way Mason Miller is getting traded… The A’s have no impetus to trade him for anything less than an astronomical return, and no one would pay it. No. He’s going to toil away for 3 years before the spread between asking price and bidding price finally closes enough for him to go to a contender.