There are a handful of pitchers inside the Top 20 that don't bring the elite strikeout upside like their peers, but they have a higher expectation to go deeper into games and stabilize your ratios week-to-week. Johnny Cueto was supposed to be one of those guys this year, but after last night's 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks he's now holding a 4.50 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP while killing your soul. The K/BB numbers seem fine - though he is carrying a 2.48 BB/9 that is his highest mark since 2013 but still super good - and the problem seems to be hinged on his Four-Seamer, which holds a -0.5 pVal after a trio of double digit marks in the last three seasons. Its whiff rate is down from 9.7% to just 5.6% this year, with an eight point increase in Z-Contact (contact on pitches inside the zone), while allowing a monstrous ISO of .262 off the pitch, which explains the massive hard contact jump from 27.2% in 2016 to 35.8% this season (and a drop in soft contact from 19.4% to just 14.2% so far!). For a finesse guy like Cueto, seeing his Fastball command dip is a bit concerning as it is typically the rock that allows him to build the rest of his arsenal. His xFIP of 3.78 isn't too far off from last year's 3.42 mark, so there's a chance this is just that LOB rate doing annoying things, but that bump in hard contact is making me really scared right now. I wouldn't be buying Cueto right now unless I'm selling an expendable piece.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
