Not-So Fresh Pax

If you read Pitcher List a good amount, you’ll know our love for James Paxton and we were eagerly looking forward to his return to the bump on Friday night against...

If you read Pitcher List a good amount, you’ll know our love for James Paxton and we were eagerly looking forward to his return to the bump on Friday night against Houston, which resulted in a horrific 1.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks line. I watched this one and boy was it rough. Like really rough. Paxton threw 50 pitches, with just two whiffs (4% rate!), only threw 3 Cutters, and – here’s the worst part – was sitting at 92.6mph. This is a guy that’s normally around 96mph. I know it’s his first start back from a long DL Stint – DLH for life ya’ll – but this doesn’t make me want to roll with him next time either. If you’re in championship week next week, you drop him if there is someone else to stream. I can’t imagine the Mariners pushing him past 80 pitches and everything needs to go right for it to go your way.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Bud Norris – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Nud got the start in this bullpen game, which is weird to see after my mixed emotions with him last season. There really was something there around May/June 2016…Oh Borris, why must we dwell on the past?

Alex Wood – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. So this is great. And I’m sure you’re thinking he’s good to go the rest of the way. You’re probably right. One problem is that his velocity took another drop, this time at 90.5mph. That’s bad. Very bad. He still had success regardless of that and now gets the Phils and Padres, so kinda ignore this. But it makes me super afraid for 2018.

Homer Bailey – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Homer Bale needed this after allowing five ER against the Mets last time out. You don’t want to risk rolling with Bailey moving forward, though, especially as this was the Pirates and they are dreadful. I’m going to play the Blame it on the Pirates card and you better like it.

Tyler Chatwood – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Sorry Chatty, I still don’t want to trust you.

Carson Fulmer – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Carson’s ball is moving more than a lily in a field with a helicopter landing. Wow, what a poetic mind. He had the Tigers here, but next are the Astros and you don’t want that. Streamer Record 76-57-16. Three games up with two weeks to go. If the Yanks can’t win the East, then I can win this.

Charlie Morton – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. This is what’s up Morton. Now you get the ChiSox? OH YES.

Robbie Ray – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. Ray is facing bad teams and he demolishes them like he’s Joe the Wrecking Ball. Wait, is Joe the guy running the machine or is he the physical ball? …both.

Anibal Sanchez – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. Um…what? This is as much of a Birthday Party as you’ll ever see…

Daniel Mengden – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. …With over 25 people here, it’s a good chance two people have the same Birthdays!

Matt Andriese – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Are you happy Andriese? You’re the reason Faria isn’t starting anymore. Okay, I can’t actually be mad at you since I think there’s value hiding in you given more time, but in the short term I’m upset. JUST LET ME BE IRRATIONALLY UPSET.

Jeremy Jeffress – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. Another bullpen game here and Jeffress was bad. Because he’s not a starter. DUH.

John Lackey – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. He got ejected in the fifth after striking out CarMart on the previous pitch, but SIKE! We’re not calling that deuce in the middle of the plate because Contreras didn’t frame it properly. Still, Lackey has to keep his cool here – he’s known for that after all – as he could have easily spun six innings of goodness for you regardless. Anyway, I think you keep starting him in 12 teamers.

Sean Newcomb – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Just the second time since the start of July with 1 walk to his name. Yikes. This was the Mets and I don’t want to put faith in Newcomb when it counts.

Luis Severino – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace. It’s kinda nuts how good he has been. And is. But I’m leaning that he’ll be overdrafted next season. Also, enjoy your Gallows Pole at 22 whiffs.

Jose Urena – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. If you’re looking to start Jose, I’d consider ena other option. I don’t think that joke landed. Just wait, it’s like a balloon. One day it will fall. One day…

Gabriel Ynoa – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Are you thinking what I’m thinking? Ynoa what I’m thinking. Gabriel is more fallen than angel.

J.A. Happ – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Yes I will take this from Happ all day. Now he gets the Yanks though and that’s not my favorite matchup.

Rafael Montero – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Blegh. At least you got some strikeouts? I’m glad I went with Fulmer instead.

Jeff Samardzija – 8.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Well done Loose Lips, I still don’t trust you moving forward against the Dodgers and in Arizona against the Dbacks for a second time. Nothing personal. Okay kinda personal, BUT THAT’S YOUR FAULT.

Jason Vargas – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Ahhh, The Vargas Rule. I’m happy Jason gets to live on for a long time. Don’t forget it for 2018.

Trevor Bauer – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Bauer has been cruising for ages and faltered against…the Royals. Uggggh not now Bauer. NOT NOW.

Bartolo Colon – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. This is good enough for Paul Funyun to stick around in the majors next season, right? Please tell me I’m right.

Chad Kuhl – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. The six Ks hint at a better future, but he’s a PEAS for now. Also a Young Gun. I’ll make a Ven Diagram at some point.

Mark Leiter Jr. – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Holy Wade Boggs’ mustache look at those strikeouts! 14 Whiffs in this one against the A’s, who are one of the most strikeout prone teams out there.

Nick Martinez – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Sure, whatever Nick.

Clayton Richard – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s the wrong Clayton!

Chris Sale – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks. Sale. Buddy. Please. I want you to win the Cy Young, but you’re not helping your cause here.

Edwin Jackson – 2.1 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Is it time that we throw in the towel for EJax? At least he’s not walking a ton of batters every outing, but he has a somewhat meh schedule ahead while the Harper-less Nationals aren’t going to help him steal Wins.

Carlos Martinez – 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. I hope this didn’t kill some of your playoff hopes because this sixth inning was incredibly tough to watch with a pair of walks and a trio of singles, who all came around to score as the inning progressed. Ouch. I wouldn’t sit him moving forward after this one.

Today’s Streamer

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Detroit Tigers – Still only owned in 11.6% of leagues and he gets the lackluster Tigers. Awww yeah.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Garrett Richards vs. Texas Rangers – He’s owned in under 25% of leagues and he’s reading to produce for your squad. Other options include Kyle Gibson against the Jays because the dude is rolling and I’m on board as long as he’s facing poor squads, as well as Robert Stephenson against the Pirates if you need last-minute strikeout upside.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Luis Perdomo vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – There is no streamer I would actually go with today, so I’ll take the HR chance in Perdomo as the Diamondbacks are out of Arizona and Perdomo has gone six innings in each of his last ten games. Don’t do this.

Game of the Day

Zack Greinke vs. Madison Bumgarner – Two aces squaring off is always a day of fun.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

12 responses to “Not-So Fresh Pax”

  1. Jason says:

    Where do you see Severino getting drafted next year and where would you be comfortable taking him?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I honestly can’t tell you yet as the offseason is long and full of terrors. And fluctuates a ton.

      If I had to guess, around 40/50 overall.

      Knowing me, I’ll be targeting someone else for cheaper as my #1 starter, but it’s possible I’ll go after him in the 6th. Drafting is all about getting value based on what everyone else is expected to do, making it incredibly difficult for me to nail down a target for Severino right now.

  2. stu says:

    Hey Nick, love the articles!

    I’m in the championship next week in my points league. My problem is I have too many GOOD options and can’t decide who to sit!!

    Which 3 do I SIT

    2 start- C Anderson @PIT, CHC
    2 start- M Stroman KC, NYY
    C Martinez- @CIN
    L Weaver- @CIN
    C Morton- LAA
    J Quintana- @MIL
    2 start- G Marquez @SF, @SD

    Thanks again, love the site.

  3. Soggy Arm says:

    I dropped Osuna at the beginning of the week after a horrendous blowup, injury concerns, and paternity leave. After getting the save last night, regret it given that saves is tied 1-1 in my semis. Anyways, I only have Britton now. For championship, should I drop either Giolito or Maeda to pick Osuna back up? Giolito has two starts but one at NYY (I think). Maeda, who knows?

  4. Joey F says:

    I have an emergency!!! Semi-finals. I’m up by 60 points. Comes down to Sunday. I’m starting Kluber & Stephenson. The problem is my opponent picked up a bunch of guys and is starting 7 pitchers on the last day including Manaea & Richards. Do I pick up someone like Gsellman, Henderson Alvarez, Miguel Gonzalez or Andrew Moore? Or do I just trust that my 2 guys will do better than his 7?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      What are the stats looking like? If he tanks his ERA/WHIP, but gets Wins/Ks, is that okay for you?

      • Joey F says:

        It’s purely a points league. Starters get points for innings pitched, K’s, wins and negative points for hits allowed, walks, and losses. I’ve been following your advice all year & it’s gotten me this far. Just need your opinion on this one! Thanks

  5. Is the lower velocity for A. Wood any reason to start say Luke Weaver or Aaron Nola over him this week?

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