Oh Danny Boy

We’ve been scrutinizing Danny Salazar since his return from the minors and after two dominating performances, he had his best start yet going 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3...

We’ve been scrutinizing Danny Salazar since his return from the minors and after two dominating performances, he had his best start yet going 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 12 Ks against the Yankees. As all of them are, Eno Saris wrote a great article about Salazar’s return to the bigs, considering that Salazar’s decision to throw more Four-Seamers and dial back the Changeup a little bit is helping him get through games. Well he certainly continued dominating in this one, so I went into the heatmaps to see if it was consistent with what Eno was discussing, and yeah, Four-Seamers were up-and-armside, Changeups were low or out of the zone and Sliders danced in and out. Much different location that the Four-Seamers he threw earlier in the year. Alright, here’s my thinking. This is clearly Salazar’s ceiling, no question about it. It’s also three starts of it, but it’s a beautiful place he’s in. I can be convinced that it details a solid 8 weeks ahead for him, but I can also be convinced that it’s a small sample size and Salazar isn’t so far removed from being a ratio destroyer. At the end of the day, it is a shift in approach and y’all know I treat that like the biggest indicator of believing success. Come Monday, I’ll probably have Salazar around 30 or so, as his upside is clearly as high as they come. I don’t imagine he hints at Top 15, though.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Paul Blackburn – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. So what you’re telling me is that Blackburn survived nearly seven full innings while earning one of his twenty outs via a strikeout. And 0 ER in that time. Riiiiiiight.

Zach Davies – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Fast wants us to talk Davies in the next cast. Do we really have to? I know it’s four straight solid outings now but I just don’t buy this. Did you know that two of those starts came with 0% soft contact? Or that three of the four had a SIERA above 4.00 (the odd one out was 3.58)? Sorry, it’s just not for me.

Cole Hamels – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I really should have seen this coming after allowing 14 ER in his last three starts. Best part here is that he threw 30% Changeups, which is the pitch for Hamels. The pitch was killing it yesterday and it’s not far-fetched that Hamels retains that feel in his next start against Houston…though I’m not sure I want to make that bet.

Dinelson Lamet – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. The Secondary Call Boy was great against the Pirates even with three walks to his name. Can’t say I trust him outside of teams like the Pirates, such as the Reds next that I wouldn’t start him for. Then I’m cool with the Phils, but not the Nats…and we’ll see where we’re at when he faces the Marlins. Don’t be suckered in by the recent performances, it’s all pretty clear – he’s done well against the Braves, Giants, Pirates, and struggled in Coors and against the Indians. It’s clear cut so don’t get cute.

Alex Cobb – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. After 8 ER last time, Cobb went back to his old self as he collected four whiffs. Yeah, four. If anyone wants to point something out that I’m missing that indicates legit success for Cobb here, by all means. I want to hear it and become a believer. Until then, he’s still a TEEs to me.

Mike Foltynewicz – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks. This is following a 3 K, 4 ER start against the Phillies because Folty can never make up his mind who he is. He’s a PEAS, Cherry Bomb, a man that will make you feel alive as he brings you through every human emotion.

Jon Gray – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. I haven’t talked a whole lot about J. Gray recently, because there really isn’t much to report. This was in Coors, though it was the Phils, and it was the fifth start in his last six with a sub 10% whiff rate. Seeing only five swings-and-misses total in this one isn’t helping my lack of enthusiasm.

Lance Lynn – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. This is such a Lynn start that it hurts. 3 Walks with just four Ks yet the ratios are intact. I can’t be the only one thinking he’s right on the cusp of falling on his face, right?

Jordan Montgomery – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Yes JorMont. YES. The Indians are no joke and you took full advantage of your extra time in the Yankee rotation. Hopefully they keep going six-man and The Bear gets more time in the rotation, though it would be against the Red Sox…then the Sawx again. Ouch.

Drew Pomeranz – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. And The Dirty Cheerleader continues his 2017 tale of being one of the more underrated arms around.

John Lackey – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Meh. This does nothing to my opinion of Lackey.

Wade Miley – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. For such a boring start, this is a great feeling for Miley. Treasure it, Wade, as the tide will go back out shortly. But doesn’t that mean the tide will come back in later? I don’t dissect your analogies, you don’t dissect mine.

Taijuan Walker – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. I’ll take a PQS from Walker with a 1.00 WHIP and 6 Ks any day.

Dan Straily – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Straily was the Gallows Pole recipient yesterday with 18 swings and misses to his name. Unfortunately he gets the Nats next and that’s a clear bench in my mind.

Chris Stratton – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s been a Cup of Schmo all season long. This changes nothing. NOTHING.

Drew VerHagen – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Speaking of Cup of Schmo…

Luis Castillo – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks. Okay, it’s a slightly better PQS and the WHIP isn’t terrible but four Ks and five walks are just not what I wanted from Castillo. Another day, another tie. Streamer Record 57-40-14. Now he gets the Padres next *Drooooool*.

Gerrit Cole – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Okay, so Cole finally hit a bump in the road after cruising for so long. Of course, being Cole n all, it came against he’s easiest matchup in the Padres, but whatever. Let’s move on.

Marco Estrada – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. This is Estrada’s highest strikeout total since June 6th, just over 10 starts ago. It’s solid coming against the Astros, though I’m not ready to put any weight in this, especially since his last three starts of 6 ER total hasn’t featured a BABIP over .200.

Kyle Gibson – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. I prefer Kyle 1. And that’s saying a lot. Isn’t he named Frank? You know, I think you’re right.

Rich Hill – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Nothing like allowing three solo shots in the first and then cruising the rest of the way. Okay four innings isn’t too impressive, but that was just 2 Hits and a walk with 7 Ks. Still loving Hill moving forward.

Seth Lugo – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. This is the on the cusp of being actually beneficial and being pretty blegh. I’m impressed a bit as this was the Dodgers, but I wouldn’t say it gives me the confidence to roll with Lugo in the future. Still not a fan.

Charlie Morton – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. A strikeout per inning is great, just one fewer hit/ER and we’re golden. Still, I’ll take this and save for two starts against the Nats and Arizona, Morton’s schedule is mighty fine the rest of the way.

Tyler Skaggs – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. It was DLH for Skaggs and this went as expected, especially considering his minor league starts prior weren’t anything to write home about. Don’t think I’m picking him up here as he gets the Mariners + Nationals next. I don’t believe I’ll be hearing whispers of loooooser after I neglect to roll with him.

Edwin Jackson – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. 8 Ks, no walks and a decent WHIP through five? EJax, don’t you dare lure us in. But that bait is laced in bacon! WAIT, REALLY? Nope nope nope, not doing it.

James Shields – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. And now we have Shields getting the PQS with a 1.00 WHIP and 6 Ks. Yesterday was odd.

Nick Pivetta – 2.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Pivetta in Coors? Well yeah, what did you expect?

Today’s Streamer

Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. New York Mets – Here’s to hoping he keeps this start given all the Dodgers being Dodgers things and the every present possibility Ryu gets hurt from a gust of wind.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Brent Suter vs. Minnesota Twins – Just seven games on Monday, and with the few choices I’ll go with Suter despite not liking him much at all.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Sal Romano vs. San Diego Padres – There’s nothing else to turn to, so I’ll go with a strikeout threat against one of the most strikeout prone teams.

Game of the Day

Jameson Taillon vs. San Diego Padres – Okay, Luis Severino vs. Carlos Carrasco or Jimmy Nelson vs. Chris Archer are much better matchups, but I’m dying to watch this and see if Taillon can recover after two nightmarish starts.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

5 responses to “Oh Danny Boy”

  1. Anthony says:

    EJ looked really good yday.

  2. Managed to trade Ervin Santana for Castillo yesterday — pretty happy with that!

    • J.C. Mosier says:

      I was watching the Castillo start. He had trouble with location early on, then adjusted very nicely … and then Bryan Price attempted a bit of Careful, Icarus, sending him out for the seventh with 93 pitches. And then left him in after hitting a man with his 111th pitch.

  3. Mike says:

    Going to see how Matz does tonight, but if he gets blowed up, OK to drop for Reynaldo Lopez? Have Castillo & JorMont, too… Thanks, love the site!

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