I love thinking about the idea of player development as a baseball concept. Especially within the context of a player like Christian Walker.
There was a misconception surrounding development for a long time. The idea that it followed some linear path. You get drafted, land at one of the lower levels, and sequentially work your way up. For some players, that ends up the case. We have collectively, of course, dispelled this notion at this point. There are too many examples of non-linear development to dispute it. Alex Gordon. Josh Donaldson. Etcetera. To say nothing of the intricacies of pitching development and the starter-reliever dynamic.
One issue that still exists within the non-linear path of development, though, lies in the broader narrative. The general public has the shortest of attention spans. When a player doesn’t meet the linear and immediate path of development, they fall out of the zeitgeist. Fans of that specific team may recognize the excellence. But the mainstream appeal dissipates. Which is why Christian Walker likely doesn’t feature the notoriety that he should.
Pedigree to DFA
With the likes of Gordon, Donaldson, or Ben Zobrist no longer around, Christian Walker now represents perhaps the most striking example of non-linear development in recent memory.
He was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2009 (49th round) but did not sign. He spun his college commitment to the University of South Carolina into 200+ plate appearances. Therein, he was a part of two National Champion squads and another that reached the College World Series. Walker excelled throughout each run and parlayed that success into a fourth-round selection by Baltimore in 2012.
Walker scratched the Orioles’ MLB Pipeline Top 30 for the first time in 2013. He was the team’s no. 17 prospect before rising to n0. 15 the following year. The peak came in 2015 when he was the team’s top positional prospect, trailing only Dylan Bundy & Hunter Harvey among the Top 30. The initial scouting report in ’13 noted the following:
He has a very good feel for hitting, though the Orioles didn’t get to see much of it as his summer debut was cut short by a back injury. While he doesn’t have light-tower power, he does have the ability to drive the ball. He’s limited defensively, but should be adequate at first.
That graduated into the following at his peak within the system:
As a Gamecock, Walker developed a reputation as an excellent hitter, one with a good approach and more gap power than anything else…Walker has an outstanding work ethic, and he gets points for his overall feel for the game. That could help him play beyond his raw tools and eventually fit the profile of a regular big league first baseman, though he’ll have to wait for Chris Davis and/or Steve Pearce to make room.
So we’ve got some power. Gap power, to be specific. And adequate defense. Not a striking, “First Baseman of the Future” endorsement. But a capable big league regular. I especially like this line: That could help him play beyond his raw tools and eventually fit the profile of a regular big league first baseman. That didn’t end up being the case in Baltimore for Christian Walker.
He would go on to register just 31 plate appearances at the top level for the O’s. He struck out 13 times, walked four, and had only two extra-base hits to his name. Walker performed well at Triple-A, but never well enough to earn him an extended shot at the top level. The presence of the aforementioned Chris Davis (and, to a lesser extent, Steve Pearce) prevented such a look.
As a result, Walker would be designated for assignment ahead of the 2017 season.
“Change of Scenery”
With a player like Christian Walker, we hear a lot about the change of scenery concept. “Oh, this guy didn’t get enough of a look. A new landing spot could see him break out.” It’s an oversimplification, but one we’ve seen pay off enough that it’s easy to fall into that mindset. Walker’s change of scenery, however, wasn’t directly to Arizona.
Atlanta claimed Walker first. He was again designated after only 17 plate appearances. It was then the Cincinnati Reds that claimed Walker that spring. It was a tough draw either way. Blocked in Baltimore, he landed in two organizations that featured future Hall of Fame players at his position (Freddie Freeman & Joey Votto). In total, he notched 39 plate appearances during the 2017 exhibition season, finishing with 10 strikeouts, two walks, and three extra-base hits.
The Reds would also hit Walker with the DFA before spring’s end. The Arizona Diamondbacks claimed him before jettisoning him to Reno for almost the entirety of that season.
It’s Christian Walker’s 2017 that illustrates the oversimplification of the change-of-scenery concept within how we think about development. It’s not always as simple as moving a guy from one team to another to gain some traction. Sometimes it requires multiple stops. And even at that final stop, it doesn’t happen right away. You need the appropriate amount of runway, too. Walker would go on to make only 17 plate appearances at the highest level that year. And only 53 the following season.
Something happened, though, in the winter of 2018-19 that provided Christian Walker with that long-awaited opportunity. The Snakes traded franchise icon Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis. It was a familiar scenario facing smaller market teams. But one that would yield massive dividends for Walker’s development.
The Most Quiet of Elite
Let’s circle back, for a moment, to Walker’s initial scouting reports. Gap power. Adequate defense. That sounds like more of a stopgap than a permanent solution. But Walker got his first full crack at a spot in 2019, when he made over 600 trips to the plate for an upstart Diamondbacks squad. Lest we forget about the work ethic those initial scouting reports noted.
Across those 600+ PAs, he hit .261 and reached base at a .347 clip. He slugged 29 home runs. In the larger context of big league first basemen, the offensive output didn’t register as super impressive. This was still the time of prime José Abreu & prime Anthony Rizzo. To say nothing of the established names like Freeman, Goldschmidt, or Matt Olson. It was an intensely deep group.
Even more notably, though, his Fielding Run Value checked in at 12 with an Outs Above Average of 16. Each defensive figure was more than double the next closest player at the position (Olson). So in his first full season, Walker had not only succeeded in effectively replacing Paul Goldschmidt in both facets, but he outperformed all expectations. Both the power and the defense reached heights that even the staunchest of supporters wouldn’t have expected back in 2012.
Since that point, Christian Walker has been a top-five player at the first base position. It’s not a spot that is as deep as it once was. But from 2019 to the current year, few have been better.
In the cumulative sense, Walker has slashed .253/.332/.467/.799. He’s hit 130 home runs and ISO’d .214. Walked at a 9.8 percent rate. He’s top 5-10 in nearly every offensive category. His strikeout rate, which has been reasonable at a shade under 23 percent, is more than compensated for as a result. In 2024 alone, he’s been a top-three player at the position in terms of cumulative value. We’ve reached a point where only Bryce Harper & Freddie Freeman have been more valuable to their respective teams than Walker.
Let’s move things back to that five-year stretch, though, and focus on the other side of the ball. Walker has also been worth a FRV of 42 and OAA of 56. The next closest full-time player at the position over that stretch is Carlos Santana, who has gone for 18 and 14 in the two categories, respectively.
Read that again. The offensive numbers are good. Better than good. He’s a genuine source of power. And has more of it than the initial expectations might’ve thought. But the defensive component is what has elevated Walker’s numbers to something genuinely elite. It’s not a position that metrics love. But Walker has defied the metrics in posting something absolutely gaudy on that side of the ball.
Intricacies of Development
It’s not as simple as “Christian Walker worked really hard and therefore became a really good first baseman after years of minor league & DFA purgatory.” That’s a component, sure. But there are mechanical changes to the swing. Changes to the defensive process. There’s so much that goes into it. And that is ultimately the point here.
When a player is drafted, we tend to bombard them with oversimplifications. “This guy just needs to find a position.” “This other one just needs to tap into hit tool in order to maximize the benefit of his power.” And so it goes.
The important thing is to not lose sight of the guys who aren’t taking the traditional path. There were over 600 players drafted into Major League organizations last weekend. Some of them will follow a fairly standard trajectory. Many of them will not. You’re going to have the Christian Walkers of the world. Those who might not appear at the top level until…2029. Which isn’t even a real year at this point. But just because they aren’t taking a standard path to the big leagues doesn’t mean we should fail to appreciate their excellence in the way that we have with the Arizona Diamondbacks‘ first baseman.