After going 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks against the Padres, Rich Hill ends the year with 3.32 ERA, 11.01 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, and 1.09 WHIP with 25 starts under his belt. I'm a bit shocked that the consensus opinion of Hill actually panned out through the year and I won't forget heavily debating dropping him back in June when the Dodgers wouldn't make up their mind. Is he starting? Is he hurt? Is he going to last more than 4-5 innings in a game? His season IPS was 5.4, which is pretty lackluster, though it was one out short of an even 6.0 through his final 16 starts since June 26th - which, to everyone's surprise, didn't miss a single turn of the rotation. Crazy. You'll hear "if he can repeat 2017, I'm on board" come February, without the understanding that we can't expect 2017 to repeat itself. Yes, you can bet I won't be owning Hill next year.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Hey Nick, I messed up yesterday. Bauer is not available in my league. It’s also too late to pick Peacock or Gonzalez. So which 2 would you stream out of the following:
Cueto vs SD (Perdoma)
Odorizzi vs BAL (Miley)
Tomlin vs CWS (Volstad)
Straily vs ATL (Gohara)
Gibson vs DET (Boyd)
Sabathia vs TOR (Stroman)
Junis vs AZ (Walker)
Gohara vs MIA
Ouch!
Cueto + Gibson, though I’m fine with Straily and Odorizzi as well.
Cool cool. I forgot to mention J. Montgomery who looks to be starting Sunday vs TOR (Anderson). Would you pick him over Gibson? Thanks!
Super close and I’d go with Gibson since it’s more of a secure thing.
Yahoo has Gibson going Sat, ESPN has him going tomorrow, MLB has both days TBD. Any word from Twins?
There are not 39 better arms than Shark. I am pretty certain of that. Just don’t draft him as your #1. Why sweat the 4+ ERA? He has all the other skills (except wins) that you are looking for. Most guys have at least one flaw. Shark’s flaw is probably that he goes too deep into games. If he was only going 6 IP things would probably be a bit cleaner.
Having a 4.20 ERA across 200 innings is lethal, especially so in roto leagues.
And there’s one thing to say that at the end of 2018, Samardzija will be inside the Top 40 – when you pitch 200 innings, it’s hard not to be when injuries are a thing.
There’s another to say that I’d rather draft larger upside plays that will give me better innings when they are on the field + there will be better arms to be picked up through the year instead.
Essentially, I’d rather gamble for upside than stick with Samardzija next season.
I don’t play roto, so I forget that other people don’t play H2H. I think that is where you and I disagree a lot. In a matchup, he is good more often than not and an earned run or two is nothing most weeks. In any case, when you continually end up in the top 40, you are top 40 in my book. I get what you are saying though. In H2H upside gambles hurt as I need innings and Ks essentially. Perhaps we have now identified why we disagree on Clevinger as well.
I don’t think many people are going to reach for Salazar. They didn’t reach this year and this was not a good year for him. It’s really easy to assume that some moron will make all of the mistakes in your draft, but the reality is, at what point does it become a good value pick for you?
In my only re-draft league I drafted Salazar because nobody wanted him. I knew he what I was getting but it was better than what was left at that point. In my dynasty league he was being shopped for pennies on the dollar. I have to think that his value is significantly less next year. At some point, he has by far more upside than the people that he will be ranked among. FYI, I traded him as soon as I could and got way more than the late pick value. The fact is that I hate every one of my last 5 picks or so in a draft.
That’s totally fair, and hopefully I’ll have a solid answer when I put out my “way too early” Top 100 rankings next week.
I don’t know if he is even a SP? But then again, when he is right he looks a lot like a top 25 guy. He is by far the hardest guy to value for me. I think he is just a lotto ticket. I wonder if he would be a lights out RP…
I have only one move left….which one would you choose for a final start…. Berrios, K. Gibson, Sabathia or J. Montgomery?
As much as I like Samardzija, I think i’ve got a good acronym that honors the “Shark”.
FINS – FIP Is Not Safe / FIP Is No Savior.
Love the idea, only problem is that “FINS” doesn’t roll off the tongue as much as I’d like. Also, “He is a FINS” doesn’t really work.
But this is a good spark!
Hmm, I see your point. I was thinking of referring to pitchers as “having FINS” but it definitely sounds cumbersome the way you mentioned. Back to the drawing board!
Second ideas:
OAF – Occasionally Avoid FIP. Easy to say “He’s an OAF, don’t take the chance”
APL – Advanced Pitching Letdown. You can take an Adam and Eve “temptation” angle and say “He’s an APL, don’t be tempted”.
Keeper for next year, price is all the same ( ESPN standard 5×5, weekly, 10 team)
Verlander
Berrios
Maeda
Samardzija
D Price
Manaea
J. Nelson
Thanks!