Welcome to Week 19 of our Patience or Panic series!
Mookie Betts, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
There’s a famous Looney Tunes GIF/meme/joke/whatever we’re calling anything these days. In it, Bugs Bunny purses his lips, hides his bunny buck-teeth, and “says” no. That exact image is the answer to the very conceit of this question. Should we be panicking about Mookie Betts? In the words of that carrot-chewer, no. This is an erstwhile MVP, seven-time Silver Slugger, eight-time All-Star, and four-time champion. What are we even talking about?
Well… Be very, very quiet, but we’re talking about a player who’s in decline and is on pace for the worst season of his career bar none. Sacrilegious as it might sound, impossible as it might be, it’s true. Through 74 games this season, Betts is hitting .229/.286/.399 with a .685 OPS and a 87 wRC+. He’s below average by either cumulative metric. He’s well, well, well below average by his own standards. And if Father Time were Elmer Fudd, he’d seem right on Betts’ trail.
That notion is especially true as of late. Over the last 30 days, Betts is hitting .188/.244/.288 with a .534 OPS and a 44 wRC+. That OPS ranks 13th-worst in baseball, and that wRC+ is tied for ninth-worst in baseball during that span. Players bunched around him are former teammate Xander Bogaerts, Jorge Soler, Dansby Swanson, Jarren Duran, and Cedric Mullins. Yeah. It’s bad. Worse, it’s somewhat of a trend.
Last season, though filled with hot and cold streaks, Betts hit .258 with a .732 OPS. The latter was unheard of for a player who’s posted an .800+ OPS every season of his career up to that point. Another cold streak then came in October, with Betts hitting just .229 with a .648 OPS through 17 postseason games. He ended last season poorly despite strong moments and hasn’t yet turned the tide this season. Ain’t that a stinker.
So, despite the pedigree and past success, with Betts now 33, it begets the question: What’s up, doc?
For as easy as it is to be forlorn about Betts on the whole, it’s just as easy to see bad fortune. Betts currently has a .271 xBA and a .429 xSLG. The former serves in sharp contrast to its actual counterpart, such that Betts is the fifth-most unlucky bat in baseball. Even if that number were somewhere between .271 and .232, say .250-something, Betts’ prognosis is totally different. He’s suddenly closer to last year’s .258 average and well into an OPS of .700+. He’s not cooked.
He’s also shown flashes of his past self. For instance, Betts was just as good in June as he was bad in July. He hit .290/.339/.447 with an .816 OPS and a 122 wRC+. All the contact that’s since disappeared was there, the power played like it always had, and the alarm bells were quiet.
While this is conjecture and sample size, other numbers are not. All of Betts’ advanced numbers check out. He still wields elite discipline, clocking in the 90th percentile or better in K%, Whiff%, and Chase%. He’s in the 90th percentile in LA Sweet-Spot%, as well. He still knows how to do damage with his swing path. The numbers should change if his luck starts to even out. Two stats exempt from this silver lining are Barrel% and HardHit%. That is, admittedly, a problem considering their importance.
Right now, Betts’ Barrel% is in the 51st percentile, and his HardHit% is in the 38th. Poor numbers for any hitter, let alone one of Betts’ stature. But they’re up compared to a year ago. His Barrel% is up from 5.5% to 8.0%, and his HardHit% is up from 35.8% to 39.2%. Likewise, in the context of his career, they’re not career-lows. His 38.8 HardHit% is only fourth-worst, and his 7.8 Barrel% is actually tied with two other seasons for the fifth-highest in his career.
In every major area, Betts remains who he is. Or, at least, he isn’t undermining himself. He’s not chasing power or deviating from his approach all that much. He’s not watched his bat transform into a rubber mallet that produces “POW!” and “BOOM!” and “BANG” side effects. Everything checks out. Between those numbers and his bad luck, there’s a carrot on the stick to keep baseball’s faith in Betts.
For the most part. One area of Betts’ game should be under some concern: His ability to hit fastballs. Not all fastballs, either. Just four-seamers. This season, Betts is hitting just .172 against four-seam fastballs. The expected numbers that buoy him elsewhere don’t here, with a .228 xBA. He can square them up with a terrific .455 slug on them. That, however, is all he can do.
It’s unheard of for Betts. In seasons past, he hit .329, .297, .304, and .345 against four-seamers with run values of 19, 18, 10, and 13. This year, he’s at -2, a career low. It’s strange. And it’s perhaps the one area of major concern. Betts’ bat speed continues to rank poorly, even with a +1 MPH gain this season. Now he can’t hit four-seamers.
The Verdict: As Bugs says, “no.” Don’t hold funerals for Betts. Don’t let Porky close the curtain and declare that’s it. Betts is just going through it.
William Contreras, C, Milwaukee Brewers
There’s been a lot of little brothers in baseball history. Some set themselves apart more than others. Few are doing it like the Contreras brothers are right now. First, there’s Willson Contreras, who’s enjoying a career year in Boston with a .931 OPS and down-ballot MVP votes to follow this Fall. Then, there’s William Contreras, who’s simply enjoying a nice season serving as the Brewers backstop.
A nice season. That’s underrating William a touch right now and on the whole. He’s a reigning All-Star, has had a .700+ OPS for five straight seasons, and has the third-most fWAR by any active catcher. He’s no slouch, no Larry Yount to Milwaukee’s Robin. Matter of fact, why is Contreras even here? The very suggestion doesn’t lend itself to Bugs’ response, but it does lead to a shoulder shrug and an auspicious stare.
Yet the numbers as of late are worth a second look. Over the last thirty 30 days, Contreras is hitting .177/.241/.304 with a .545 OPS and a 46 wRC+. His wRC+ is 12th-worst in baseball during that time, and his OPS is 17th-worst. Even with his usual solid defense, he’s been worth -2 fWAR. If not for that, he’d likely be neck-and-neck with Shea Langeliers for second-most fWAR by a catcher in baseball. Regardless, this slump has made Contreras go from slashing .296/.362/.423 this season to today’s .270/.335/.394. Contreras, meet cliff.
The root cause for all of this is that Contreras just isn’t hitting. It’s simple and stupid yet true. He’s making no contact. Just as bad as his .192 average is his .203 BABIP, 10th-worst in the sport over these last 30 days. Nor is he getting unlucky. His xBA is just .208 during this time.
In most cases like this, hitters are whiffing instead of connecting. Opponents are unlocking some weaknesses and exploiting them for strikes one, two, and three. That’s not the case here. Contreras has a 17.2 K% over the last 30 days, a number not all that dissimilar from this season’s 13.9 K%. And even with it being a tick up in the grand scheme of this season, that 17.2% is still better than his career 20.6 K%. Bottom line, Contreras isn’t getting himself out. Not at an egregious rate.
What he is doing is grounding balls aplenty. From the start of the season through June 30, Contreras had a 41.2 GB%, according to Baseball Savant. Since July 1st, he has a 48.1 GB%, also according to Baseball Savant. Most of this is due to Contreras’s straight GB%, which was 17.6% until July and is 24.7% since. That means grounders right to second basemen and shortstops; Easy outs, in other words. Correspondingly, there’s a 6% decrease in Contreras’ AIR% during these two ranges of time, shrinking from 58.8% to a 51.9% as of late.
The lack of fly balls does point to another one of Contreras’ struggles: Power. During this putrid month or so of play, he’s slugging .304 with a .127 ISO. The latter is in sync with Contreras’s .125 mark for the season. It’s not, however, with his previous career averages. Before 2026, Contreras averaged a .175 ISO with a 3.4 HR%. Now, he’s down to the aforementioned .127 mark with a 2.3 HR% while barreling 7.7% of all balls. Something isn’t right, and it’s costing Contreras the power he once might’ve prided himself on.
That something is, in part, a decline in HardHit% in back-to-back years. Contreras peaked in 2024 with a 49.5% HardHit%, good enough for a 91st percentile finish. 2025 saw him drop to a 48.5% and 81st percentile finish. This season he’s down to 43% HardHit% and is in the 62nd percentile. Trends like that are far greater causes for concern than what’s happened recently on the calendar.
In this, Contreras’ way back is easier said than done. He has to start getting balls off the ground and back into the air. Moreover, and more challenging, he needs to get back to loud contact. He’s on track for his fewest doubles and home runs in a season since 2021. This is all the way back when Contreras was a 23-year-old sophomore in Atlanta. Milwaukee has few stars. Contreras is and has to be one of them again for the club to make any noise this fall. If not, he might find himself remembered as Willson’s brother less than his own man.
The Verdict: Keep an eye on this. If the slide keeps coming and the hits don’t start falling, back away; Contreras might fall out of favor with some fraternal order.
Brayan Rocchio, INF, Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland’s Brayan Rocchio was something of a pariah at first. Never a bat-first player, Cleveland stuck by him as a rookie. Their commitment then bit them in the behind in the 2024 ALCS. Rocchio committed three errors throughout the series, each resulting in a run, and to some extent, a Cleveland loss. They were dropped routine pop-ups, mishandled grounders. It was something of a spectacle. That didn’t change much in 2025. Rocchio hit just .233 that season with a .630 OPS in 115 games. He was every bit the red-headed stepchild in Cleveland; The one the club couldn’t save or fix.
But then they did. Somehow, Rocchio was offensively reborn from the season’s start to the end of May. In 58 games, the infielder hit .293/.374/.415 with a .789 OPS and a 127 wRC+. Rocchio, not José Ramírez, led the team in wRC+, BABIP, OPS, and offensive WAR with 2.2. Better yet, he had just six errors and was grading out nicely defensively. A new fate now seemed charted for Rocchio. He was another success story for Cleveland; another revitalization of someone destined to date with baseball’s Grim Reaper.
That was then, however. In his last 52 games, almost the same sample size as before, Rocchio is back to his old ways. He’s hitting .224/.263/.352 with a .615 OPS and a 71 wRC+. He’s gone from leading Cleveland to being last in BABIP, OPS, and wRC+ during this stretch. Forget about Cleveland. In the context of baseball, Rocchio’s .224 average these last two months is tied for the 25th-worst in baseball. His .615 OPS is ninth-worst. His 71 wRC+ is sixth-worst. The only players he’s better than are Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Colt Emerson, Leody Taveras, Jarren Duran, and Ezequiel Tovar. End of list.
What’s happened?
To some extent, Rocchio was lucky. Really lucky. Even when he was hot. Rocchio’s xBA at this time was .258, a discrepancy with his actual .293 average. His xSLG was .364, also off with his .415 alugging percentage. Past that, he wasn’t hitting balls with hellfire. His HardHit% was 32.7%, which put Rocchio in the 16th percentile of all hitters. His Barrel% was 3%. 3%! That put Rocchio in the 10th percentile. He was never, never making elite connections with great frequency. Luck and overperformance, in part, drove his success.
What’s driving his failures now is his inability to make up for what he lacks. Over these last two months, Rocchio has a 3.1 Barrel%. Hardly any better than his already paltry sum. His HardHit%, however, is worse. It’s 29.4%, which would place him in the 10th percentile. His expected stats have also caught up to him. He’s hitting .224 vs. a .233 xBA, and slugging .352 vs. a .334 xSLG. Simply, Rocchio had his defencies. And instead of getting ahead of them, he failed to see them or change his ways.
Other notable changes come in Rocchio’s discipline. He went from a 12 K% at the start of the season to a 17.5 K% over these last two months. Breaking balls and fastballs seem the culprit for this. In May, Rocchio had 15.8 K% on breakers and a 10.7 K% on fastballs. In June, both rose to 20% and 13%. July saw another increase, rising to 30.4% on breakers and 14.8% on fastballs. Despite that, Rocchio still hit fastballs, totaling a .260 average in July and a .325 average in June. The same success did not follow with breaking balls. Rocchio hit .182 against them in July and .107 in June. That’s how one loses their salvation.
The strikeouts, the lack of contact, all came at the cost of Rocchio’s walks. He’s gone from a 9.3 BB% over the first two months, which would easily have been the second-best mark of his career, to a 3.8 BB%. That would be the lowest mark of his career.
The Verdict: Cast Rocchio out like a leper. He’s been the player he is recently far more in his career than the player who started the season. Barring another resurrection, he’ll be back to being Cleveland’s black sheep before long.
