Patience or Panic: Pablo López, Ozzie Albies, and CJ Abrams

After a brief hiatus last week, we are back with our Patience or Panic recommendations for Week 11 of the fantasy season. There are more than a few players who have started their June in a swoon, but some are more likely to be able to turn it around than others. Let’s look at one stud arm and two bats who have driven fantasy managers crazy in the last month or so. All stats are through the games of June 10.

 

Pablo López, SP, MIN

Since 5/11: 5 GS, 1 W, 27 IP, 24 K, 8.00 ERA, 1.63 WHIP

Season: 13 GS, 5 W, 71 IP, 79 K, 5.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

 

Just when it seemed like López was turning things around with 1 ER in 7 IP in Houston, he put up an absolute stinker in the Bronx (4 IP, 7 ER, 6 BB). PabLo has far and away been the worst starting pitcher in terms of ERA in the past month, yielding six or more earned runs in his last five outings. López’s 2024 has been extremely disappointing given that it comes on the heels of a 2023 campaign where he fanned 234 batters in a career-high 192 IP with a 3.66 ERA and 23.2% K%-BB%, the best of his career.

 

 

Based on a quick look at the above numbers, not much is different about López this year. He is getting slightly fewer strikeouts on a per-batter basis. A lower swinging strike rate supports this reduction. López is also allowing significantly more long balls per nine innings this season, but it’s not because he is allowing way more flyballs; we only see a tiny increase there. A sharp drop in López’s strand rate, or LOB%, can explain much of his struggles so far.

Verdict: Patience. López has a career 72.8% LOB%, and I expect his season mark to positively regress towards that as he continues to toe the rubber. While you could argue that López’s stuff has diminished a bit in his last five starts compared to the entire season, his 5.23 PLV during that time is still a solid mark. López is not below average in a single mark on our PL player pages aside from ERA and WHIP, and his +19 hit luck rates in the 10th percentile, meaning he has allowed 19 more hits than would be expected based on the quality of his pitches. In fact, I would recommend buying low right now, because his projected starts leading up to the All-Star break are pretty darn good: vs COL, vs TBR, at OAK, vs HOU, at CWS. In Pablo we trust!

 

Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL

Since 5/11: 119 PA, .239/.294/.339 (81 wRC+), 9 R, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 2 SB

Season: 241 PA, .265/.328/.397 (107 wRC+), 28 R, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB

 

Albies isn’t in as big of a funk as the other two guys featured in today’s article, but he has been a pretty big fantasy disappointment all season long. Most notably, Albies’ power has taken a real step back; he’s currently on a 10-HR pace after clocking 33 long balls in 2023. His counting stats have remained strong, but with the injury to Ronald Acuña Jr., they will likely no longer be elite.

 

 

There’s been minimal change in Albies’ walk and strikeout rates, but he has not been impacting the ball as well this season. The increases in launch angle and flyball rate show that he’s lifting the ball more, but he’s doing so while hitting the ball in the air significantly softer. When you combine an 87th percentile FB% with a 39th percentile exit velocity on those flyballs, your batting average will suffer, and this is exactly what we’ve seen with Albies. His barrel rate has also collapsed, and the discrepancy between his wOBA and xwOBA suggests that Albies is actually getting a little bit lucky.

Verdict: Panic. It’s possible that Albies’ decision to sell out for elevation could start to bear fruit soon, but the expected stats don’t bear that out. He’ll continue to get excellent volume atop a solid Atlanta lineup, but without Acuña, we need to significantly decrease our expectations for his counting stats. I would consider 80 R and 80 RBI to be a win even though he’s capable of putting up 100 of each in his best seasons. Albies should continue to be a steady contributor in all categories, but I don’t think he’s a clear plus anywhere, so I would consider trying to flip him for another top-100 player if you have a good alternative at 2B.

 

CJ Abrams, SS, WSH

Since 5/11: 105 PA, .218/.238/.356 (65 wRC+), 10 R, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 2 SB

Season: 261 PA, .245/.292/.452 (107 wRC+), 35 R, 10 HR, 31 RBI, 10 SB

 

Abrams looked to be breaking out earlier this season, but as you can see above, he has really come back down to earth in the last month. Specifically, the plate discipline has completely fallen off a cliff. Abrams has never been known as a patient hitter (career 4.2% BB%), but he has been uber-aggressive lately, posting a 1.9% BB% and 23.8% K% in the last month. Abrams has also had a tough time on the bases lately even as the Nats run wild. They lead the league in steals with 98, but Abrams has been caught more times (5) in 15 attempts this year than in 51 attempts last year!

Verdict: Patience. I believe Abrams’ aggressive nature at the plate will always make him prone to slumps. While we are definitely in the middle of one of those right now, Abrams remains a staple in the leadoff spot for Washington because he’s a huge part of their future. I’m not convinced that he will remain a leadoff hitter for years to come because of his poor on-base skills, but it shouldn’t change this season.

Abrams is still pacing for a 25-25 season, and his power gains this year (.207 ISO vs. .153 career) are supported by improved rates in ICR (47.1%, 94th percentile), launch angle (15.2 vs. 11.6 career), and exit velocity on fly balls (88.0 vs 85.9 career). These strong metrics have helped Abrams to a .484 xSLG, and he has begun to establish himself as a real power threat. This will be critical for his fantasy profile moving forward because his swing-happy nature means he may struggle to be an asset in batting average.