According to Baseball Reference’s similarity scores, Juan Soto’s closest career comps at his age include the likes of Bryce Harper, Frank Robinson, and Ken Griffey Jr. Through age 26, in only seven seasons, he has accomplished more than most major leaguers ever dream of, with three top-five MVP finishes, a pennant, a championship, and the highest OBP among all active players. And yet, despite this level of generational talent, Soto will start 2025 playing for his fourth organization, although this time it should be the final one of his career.
We can now add largest contract ever in Soto’s list of accomplishments, as his heavily-anticipated free agency delivered upon its promise without having to drag through a prolonged offseason. Following a painful World Series loss, Soto took about a month before making his decision, taking the Mets’ 15-year, $765 million offer over a reunion with the Yankees. The move signaled a changing of the guard around New York, as Soto had appeared to mesh well into the pinstripes and had all the makings of a Bronx legend who would be feted for the next decade.
Instead, the Mets and their deep-pocketed owner made a statement that now promises to alter the baseball landscape in the foreseeable future. A player like Soto is usually not available to land as a free agent in his prime, but his bet on himself (he rejected several long-term offers from the Nationals) has now cashed in and set him up for life, bringing the spotlight back to his baseball legacy. He is definitely on the short list of potential future Hall of Famers, which should be aided by a team that will always have the resources to be competitive, but how will this change look like in 2025?
Throughout his career, Soto has demonstrated a knack to be the ultimate plug-and-play hitter in the game, as his preternatural ability to get on base is almost slump-proof. He was just as productive as a young phenom with Washington than as a certified star in both San Diego and the Bronx, managing to steal the spotlight from Aaron Judge in his lone Yankees season. He now joins a high-upside lineup in Queens, which seems balanced with star veterans (Francisco Lindor, the re-signing of Pete Alonso), intriguing youngsters (Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez), and solid complements (Brandon Nimmo, Jesse Winker). Soto will become the centerpiece of this attack, being placed in the middle of a fierce battle for the NL East.
While some of the criticism bestowed upon him in the past has been due to a perceived lack of aggression, the Mets and their fanbase ought to be just as patient as Soto is in the box. While he is coming off a career-high 41 homers and drove in 109 runs, Soto at his best is probably what he showed in seasons like 2020-21, when his OBP approached Bondsian levels albeit with a more tempered approach towards power. Hitting in a ballpark that is more conductive towards doubles and triples for left-handed batters, Soto’s spray chart shows a batter that should thrive without selling out for homers.
His Baseball Savant profile seems almost unreal at first glance, with a plethora of categories in the 90th percentile or above, including barrel percentage, average exit velocity. and expected slugging. At the same time, he is by far the best in terms of pitch recognition and swing choices, as he is working on a streak of four straight seasons with more walks than strikeouts. It also jumps out how he has matched his regular-season success with playoff heroics, including a star turn in the 2019 champion Nationals and a .927 OPS in 43 career playoff games.
This combination of selective aggression and a clutch gene is what the Mets are expecting in the short term, especially for a pivotal season like 2025. Atlanta and the Phillies remain a hair above New York in standings projections, which could make the Soto addition the difference maker in such a tight division. He has not faced a significant injury in his career and is a good bet to play at least 150 games, with conservative projections pegging him for another season approaching 30 dingers and 100 RBI. While that might not be enough to propel a deep playoff run unless his fellow teammates live up to their promise, Soto’s mere presence has raised the Mets’ floor significantly.
As it happens with every player, there are caveats to be considered. Soto’s defense can be generously described as mediocre, and he will now play half of his games in a much more challenging ballpark for a right fielder. His defensive miscues were front and center during last year’s World Series, and the length of his contract suggests that he will someday become the most expensive DH in league history. The Mets are certainly aware of this and will live with his offensive prowess cancelling out any defensive questions, but it will be interesting to see just how much patience they show this season. The Yankees tried him a few times in left in 2024, but the results were even worse.
In the end, I’m guessing the Mets will be very happy with their decision, for 2025 and beyond. When a 19-year-old is able to do this in the playoffs and them follow it up with a Ted Williams-like plate discipline for years, it is clear that he warrants a major commitment should he become available. Soto is now bound to become a true face of the franchise for a team desperate to assert its identity in a tough market. While the Yankees appear traumatized by their 15-year title drought, the Mets are still hoping to recapture the magic of 1986 – landing a transcendent star in his prime may just be the first step towards that goal.