As we look at risers and fallers in points leagues, the focus should not just be on how players are performing, but what their role is.
Are your hitters suddenly leading off or batting lower in the order than expected? Have they gotten an off-day, and is it because the manager put them in a platoon? Or did they get subbed out at the end of a game for defensive reasons?
As for pitchers, did they get pulled after just 70-80 pitches, or were they allowed to work deep into the game? And could anyone on the IL or in the minors threaten their rotation spot?
As volume is everything in points leagues, these are the questions you want to answer beyond just whether a player gets hot. So, given their role and their performance, who should you buy in on, and who should you leave alone?
Risers
As the dust settles after the trade deadline, one of this year’s true breakouts has a new home in Yankee Stadium. And it’s a good fit for him, as the metrics show he’d have hit at least two more home runs in the NY ballpark.
With a career K-rate around 16%, Garcia Jr. should have been on your points-league radar. But this season he’s upped the bat speed from 72.4 mph to 74.0, raised his Barrel rate to almost 13%, and improved his Average EV to 91.7 mph—all without sacrificing his excellent contact skills. It’s typically more sustainable when a contact hitter levels up to a power hitter than the other way around.
The Nationals lineup has scored more runs than every other team in the Majors this season, but the Yankees have one of the league’s best offenses once they get healthy. Bellinger, Judge, and Stanton are all on the IL, but at least one of them should be back fairly soon. Garcia (and his new buddy, Heliot Ramos, who also gets a boost—though his might be short-lived) will hold down the fort until they return. Luis is also a native New Yorker, so he should feel right at home.
Duran’s been struggling all season, and the rumors have come with it: he was going to lose his starting role or he was going to be traded. But a funny thing happened in Boston: they won 21 games in July, and Duran’s bat has woken up after hitting .144 in June. He’s got a pair of homers in his last two games and the exit velocities are starting to match his historic levels (when he was a darn good player).
But let’s look at the bad first: Duran’s getting on base 26% of the time this year, which is a points leaguer’s worst enemy. And he was hitting under .200 up until last week (he’s now at .203). But if he’s been able to turn a corner and be his old self again (or at least something close to it), there should be positive regression here. He’s a career .256 batter and got on base 34% of the time the last three seasons..
By not sending him packing, the Sox appear to be re-committing themselves to Duran. They must see something in him worth salvaging. And after this recent surge, his season numbers suddenly don’t look so bad. He might be a 25/25 player before it’s over, with 80 runs and 90 RBIs. You could do a lot worse.
| Metric | Last 15 Games | Rest of Season (Mar–Jul 18) |
|---|---|---|
| AVG | .278 | .195 |
| OPS | .730 | .607 |
| K Rate | 18.6% | 29.6% |
Fun fact: Susac is the younger brother of Andrew Susac, who used to be Buster Posey’s backup catcher a decade ago. Now that Posey is the president of the Giants organization, Daniel is getting his shot. The Giants recently traded Patrick Bailey to Cleveland, making Susac (who came off the IL about three weeks ago from a back strain) their primary catcher.
Susac is a solid defensive player so he would get decent playing time even without the hit tool. But there is a hit tool here, as he batted .275 in AAA last season and hit 18 homers. He’s also a former first round draft pick—taken 19th overall by the Athletics in 2022— so there’s some pedigree as well.
And he’s hot, with three homers and a pair of doubles in his last 29 at-bats. The Giants have recently pushed him up to fifth in the lineup (where the traded Ramos had been hitting). I wouldn’t rank Susac as a top 12 catcher just yet, but he’s worth keeping an eye on and can be a speculative add in deeper leagues.
Varsho was traded to the Astros while the Blue Jays were in a road series in Houston, so at least he saves a flight. Also of benefit, Varsho had been bouncing around the Toronto lineup all season (he’s had at least one at-bat in all nine spots) but was mostly hitting fifth or sixth; in his two games as an Astro he’s batted cleanup.
Toronto, the last-place team in the AL East, has only scored 444 runs this year. Shockingly, after going to the World Series just ten months ago, they rank dead last in the category. Houston has scored 536 and as a first-place team will benefit by playing meaningful games down the stretch. They also look to play Varsho every day where he would often sit against lefties.
Last season, Varsho hit twelve homers after the All-Star Break and was one of baseball’s best power hitters in August and September. Now with a fresh start with a new team, he’s better-equipped to do the same thing. I wouldn’t expect last year’s numbers (he hit a homer every 12.4 at-bats, which is not sustainable), but he could be a top-100 bat for sure.
Rasmussen had a start to forget in his last appearance before the All-Star Break, giving up six runs in 2.1 IP to the Yankees. But the long layoff (he didn’t pitch again for twelve days) has apparently rejuvenated him, as he’s won his last three starts with a 0.83 WHIP, 1.00 ERA, and 24 K’s in 18 innings.
Rasmussen made 31 starts last season but it was obvious there was an innings cap on him as he only made it to 150 innings, including a full month where he only had 13. But this year, as my nephew might say in a different context, there’s no cap.
Another issue for Rasmussen last year: while he was still getting hitters out and sported a sparkling 2.76 ERA, he wasn’t getting a lot of K’s. He’s thrown 117 innings thus far this season, but only has five fewer strikeouts than in 2025, and should pass last year’s mark in his next start. He’s warranting Cy Young consideration and has become a points league stud compared to the ratios guy he was before.
