As we look at risers and fallers in points leagues, the focus should not just be on how players are performing, but what their role is.
Are your hitters suddenly leading off or batting lower in the order than expected? Have they gotten an off-day, and is it because the manager put them in a platoon? Or did they get subbed out at the end of a game for defensive reasons?
As for pitchers, did they get pulled after just 70-80 pitches, or were they allowed to work deep into the game? And could anyone on the IL or in the minors threaten their rotation spot?
As volume is everything in points leagues, these are the questions you want to answer beyond just whether a player gets hot. So, given their role and their performance, who should you buy in on, and who should you leave alone?
Risers
First, a little history. Back in 2023, Gelof came into the Majors and made a huge impression by hitting 14 homers and stealing 14 bags in less than 70 games. He was heralded as a breakout candidate with 30-30 potential and was projected as a top-50 draft pick for many. Well, the air was quickly let out of the balloon as Gelof struggled to a .211 batting average, reached base only 27% of the time, and had a .632 OPS (though he did steal 25 bases).
He missed a lot of time the next season due to wrist surgery, and was even worse when he came back—he played in just 30 games and struck out in nearly half his at-bats.
So it was quite a surprise this season when Gelof, who wasn’t on anyone’s radar, started playing like the four-category contributor of old. And while his game is not overly suited for points leagues (his astronomical K-rate alone made him untouchable the last two years), he’s doing enough across the board to mitigate this. He’s a solid source of XBHs, has a decent batting average, and strikes out a tolerable 25% of the time. If he can stay healthy the rest of the season, he could be a top-100 player.
Lombard’s gotten a lot of coverage since his promotion to the Yankees last week, and it’s hard not to include a guy in a points league post with a 15% Walk rate. Sure, he’s got other skills—and is showing some surprising pop, with two homers in his first six games—but it’s the OBP potential that has me most excited. If he can hit just .250 and get as many free passes as he did in the minors, he’s getting on base an elite 40% of the time.
Lombard’s a former first-round pick with a high prospect pedigree, maxing out at #20 on the top-100. So far in his big-league career, he’s shown off his impressive defense (which is good enough to secure everyday playing time), and is proving to be a very tough out every time he comes to the plate. He’s an add in all formats, but should especially shine in this one.
It was bound to happen sooner or later, but Jac looks to have leveled up from ‘elite power bat who whiffs too much’ to ‘all-around hitter with monster power.’ This past week he’s basically undergone a Jordan Walker-level transformation about two years ahead of schedule. He’s hitting .425 in August with four homers, a pair of steals, and just five strikeouts.
Five K’s in 40 at-bats is a 12.5% K-rate. That’s all you could ever dream of as a points league owner.
This didn’t come out of nowhere. The sixth overall draft pick in 2024 has shown decent contact metrics in the minors, striking out about 22% of the time and walking 10%. Again, you should take those numbers from a power bat. But once thought to be a Gallo-level strikeout liability, Cags is different. And he’s shown some incredible growth in his first full season, with an xBA of .278 this year compared to his .157 average in 2025. The best part is he’s still got room to develop. I’d add him if he’s still available (he’s 48% owned in ESPN, so there’s a chance) and think he’s a top-75 pick next year.
Bell tends to fly under the radar as a 33-year-old veteran, but he’s still got value. A streakier hitter than you might expect, given he always seems to finish the year with the same numbers, Bell is lighting things up again.
Sure, he’ll end the year with 25-ish homers and a .250-ish batting average, but under the hood he tends to be hot one month, then cold the next. He went all of June with a .295 average and 22 RBIs, then cratered a bit in July with a .239 average and just 32% OBP. Now, as the calendar’s flipped to August, he’s hot again—he’s already swatted three dingers with a .343 average and a 5:3 BB:K ratio.
Like Cags, Bell is surprisingly suited to the points format for a power hitter, as he K’s just about 20% of the time and has a career Walk rate around 11%. Bell doesn’t have Jac’s ceiling but he can quietly churn out a few points for you day in and day out and can be a solid contributor if you have a corner infield slot.
It’s been a long road for Manaea this season. He started the year in the ‘pen and struggled to a 6.97 ERA across six appearances in April. He then had a 1.58 WHIP in May before turning the page enough (and the Mets being desperate enough) to make the rotation again.
While there have still been a couple bumps in the road, things are working out nicely. After ditching his sinker last season, Manaea’s throwing it around 20% of the time this year and going to his four-seamer twenty percent less. His sweeper’s also been more effective with a slightly altered arm slot, getting an xBA under .200 and a 31% Whiff rate.
But the main difference lately, and what’s allowed Manaea to go 2-0 in August with a 2.08 ERA on the month and 18 K’s in 13 IP: an uptick in velocity. He touched 95 mph several times in his last start—a seven-inning, eleven-strikeout gem against the Pirates—where he was hitting 91-92 most of the season. After months of ramping up, he’s finally looking like his best self again.
