As we look at risers and fallers in points leagues, the focus should not just be on how players are performing, but what their role is.
Are your hitters suddenly leading off or batting lower in the order than expected? Have they gotten an off-day, and is it because the manager put them in a platoon? Or did they get subbed out at the end of a game for defensive reasons?
As for pitchers, did they get pulled after just 70-80 pitches, or were they allowed to work deep into the game? And could anyone on the IL or in the minors threaten their rotation spot?
As volume is everything in points leagues, these are the questions you want to answer beyond just whether a player gets hot. So, given their role and their performance, who should you buy in on, and who should you leave alone?
Risers
What a difference a week makes. Last week, I labeled Teoscar as a faller in this very column after he was dropped to eighth in the batting order. But then he went three games without striking out and started hitting the ball harder than he has in a long time, and I began reevaluating my assessment. Hey, sometimes in fantasy baseball you have to admit when you’re wrong and pivot accordingly.
Turns out, the drop in K’s and hard-hit metrics were the beginning of something special. In September, Teoscar’s hitting .483 with five XBHs in 29 at-bats (he was also milliseconds away from an inside-the-park homer last night if Elly De La Cruz hadn’t gunned him at home plate). And he’s hitting the ball even harder: 13 of his last 21 batted balls were more than 100 mph.
So, what’s changed? Both hamstring and groin strains limited Teoscar most of the summer, and he’d been adjusting his swing to put less stress on those parts of his body. Now he’s fully healthy and can swing with full force like he’d been doing.
With Ohtani day-to-day and some other Dodger veterans banged up over a long season, Hernández is again a centerpiece in their loaded lineup. Expect him to continue raking these last few weeks of the season as the Dodgers try to get the top seed in the NL playoffs.
A former first-round pick in 2018, McCarthy hit .204 in limited action last season for Arizona and was traded to the Rockies in January as a result.
While it meant McCarthy went from a contending team to a cellar-dweller, it’s had a tremendous impact on his fantasy value. McCarthy’s batting average has hovered around .300 all season with a 34% OBP and an .819 OPS. He’s got career highs in doubles, triples, and homers (29/8/15) as well as stolen bases (29). And yes, more than 60% of those extra-base hits have come in the airy expanses of Coors Field.
The Rockies have brought up a decent core of young hitters to bat behind McCarthy, and could turn into a potent offense both at home and away over the next couple of years. If McCarthy can stay somewhat under the radar, he’s going to be a great sleeper candidate. But kudos if you snagged him this year—as he typically went undrafted with an ADP in the 400s. Anyone who latched on early has gotten an incredible return.
And Rocchio, despite hitting toward the bottom of the Guardians lineup, was more than mediocre the first half of the season, with a .276 average and 24 XBH’s going into the All-Star Break. He enjoyed his everyday role at shortstop and was a genuine points league contributor.
Whether it was the call-up of Angel Genao or something else that threw off his rhythm, Rocchio struggled mightily after that, batting just .181 in August with a .484 OPS. His whiff rate started climbing, and he was only getting on base 23% of the time.
But like Teoscar, he’s made a tremendous turnaround over the last week, with three homers already in September (including a grand slam) and a .304 average. While I don’t love his place in the batting order, he’s got a tremendous profile as a points-league hitter.
If you liked Rocchio’s 14% K-rate, you’ll love Sanoja’s 8.1%. A free agent out of Venezuela, Sanoja’s never been a top prospect and is listed at just 150 pounds. But he’s played his way into an everyday role this season, getting more plate appearances in each successive month. He’s also hitting .317 after the All-Star Break with a surprising amount of power, all while maintaining a 13:10 K:BB ratio.
Like Rocchio, Sanoja was seeing most of his appearances from the bottom of the lineup, which is antithetical to our volume=success mantra. But his recent breakout has moved him up to fourth or fifth in the order several times over the last few weeks—and most importantly, he’s made 17 consecutive starts.
Also worth noting, Sanoja’s eligible at six positions in ESPN, including as an RP (not that I’d recommend putting him in a pitcher slot). But if you need a steady performer during the playoffs who won’t hurt you, Sanoja’s a great option with some upside.
Gelof’s been featured in this column a couple of times, but it’s hard not to highlight a guy with three homers and four steals over his last seven games. Gelof’s had a lot of ups and downs in his career but was once a very popular sleeper pick in both categories and points formats, and now is a threat to go 20/20 in only 400 plate appearances.
Like Teoscar, Gelof had to make swing adjustments while nagging injuries impacted his natural motion. He also became much too aggressive at the plate, chasing pitches out of the zone. But his Chase rate this season has improved by more than five percentage points over his 2024 level, and he’s making more consistent contact. He won’t win a batting title any time soon, but a .254 average is more than respectable these days.
When evaluating points players, I like to use the 10% XBH threshold, which tells me if they’re getting an extra-base hit in at least a tenth of their plate appearances. Gelof’s now up to 334 AB’s— and with 15 doubles, a pair of triples, and 17 homers, he’s got 34 total XBH’s. That clears the threshold, so even if he K’s 25% of the time, he gets a thumbs-up as a points league asset.
