As we look at risers and fallers in points leagues, the focus should not just be on how players are performing, but what their role is.
Are your hitters suddenly leading off or batting lower in the order than expected? Have they gotten an off-day, and is it because the manager put them in a platoon? Or did they get subbed out at the end of a game for defensive reasons?
As for pitchers, did they get pulled after just 70-80 pitches, or were they allowed to work deep into the game? And could anyone on the IL or in the minors threaten their rotation spot?
As volume is everything in points leagues, these are the questions you want to answer beyond just whether a player gets hot. So, given their role and their performance, who should you buy in on, and who should you leave alone?
Risers
A journeyman speed specialist typically doesn’t scream points league asset, but since rejoining the Padres after an oblique strain on August 30, Taylor has a .347 batting average with a 41% OBP. He’s hitting lefties and righties equally well, batting over .325 against both, and has drawn a walk more than 10% of the time over the full season.
Taylor’s a streaky player—he had a 1-for-17 spell before collecting ten hits in his next five games—but he’s on a heater that hopefully can carry into the final weekend. The Padres face two tough Dodgers pitchers Wednesday and Thursday, but then get the Diamondbacks at home. The Padres’ offense overall has been hot and should put up a bunch of runs; expect Taylor to get his share.
Drafted fifth overall in 2023, Jenkins was a top-20 prospect when he was called up last month and had a .976 OPS in AAA. Like most rookies, he had some sporadic success but his numbers lagged as he adjusted to MLB pitching. Over the last seven days, though, he’s hitting .440 with three homers and a Walk rate that’s inching towards ten percent.
One thing to look out for: Jenkins is just 1-for-16 against lefties so far this season. But his recent stats in the Minors suggest he’s equally effective against all pitchers, so this might just be a sample size issue. The Twins have already said he’ll be a key fixture in their lineup next season, so you could see a 25-homer, 15-steal player in 2027 with solid on-base skills and a lot of volume.
Of all catchers in the Majors, Moreno is the one most suited to points. We haven’t highlighted him enough this year, so let’s show a little love.
First, the obvious stuff: he’s been healthy all season and racked up 531 plate appearances, good for sixth in the league. And he leads all catchers with a .304 batting average (only three other backstops are over .250).
Even better, Moreno has an 84th-percentile K-rate that’s under 15%. Throw in an 11% Walk rate and you have a true points league player. He’s also chipped in 15 homers and is fifth in the National League in doubles with 33.
So let’s run down our points format checklist. Volume? Check. Contact and on-base skills? Check. Extra-base hits? Check. If any points league platform has Moreno ranked below the top three catchers next season, you’ve got an immediate steal opportunity in your draft.
It looks like Peterson prefers Chicago to New York. Since being traded to the Cubs on June 25, Peterson’s improved on what was a lost season and become a pitcher worth owning again. He’s gone 5-1 since the break with a 2.95 ERA, striking out 61 batters in 61 innings. Hitters have gone from a .446 SLG against him to .342 with a .660 OPS.
So what’s different? Well, first there’s the defense behind him—the Mets are the league’s worst defensive team and the Cubs have a 38 OAA, which is the best in baseball. For a ground-ball pitcher like Peterson, that makes a huge impact. Second, the volume. While Peterson is not considered terribly efficient, he’s improved on his pitches per inning and has Quality Starts in his last two outings.
I’m a little wary of Peterson’s next start in Boston (see below), he’s slated to go Saturday and that should hopefully be ahead of the expected weather impact.
