As we look at risers and fallers in points leagues, the focus should not just be on how players are performing, but what their role is.
Are your hitters suddenly leading off or batting lower in the order than expected? Have they gotten an off-day, and is it because the manager put them in a platoon? Or did they get subbed out at the end of a game for defensive reasons?
As for pitchers, did they get pulled after just 70-80 pitches, or were they allowed to work deep into the game? And could anyone on the IL or in the minors threaten their rotation spot?
As volume is everything in points leagues, these are the questions you want to answer beyond just whether a player gets hot. So, given their role and their performance, who should you buy in on, and who should you leave alone?
Risers
What goes down, must come up—is that how the saying goes? Durbin hopes that’s the case, at least, as he got off to a miserable start this season (started 0-for-20 and batting .103 on April 10) and is just beginning to find his way.
A trendy sleeper pick in points leagues for his contact skills, all of those rosy projections came crashing down once April unfolded. But the Red Sox are now under new management, and that gives Durbin a fresh chance to impress. This could mean a lineup shakeup should he continue to hit better and could result in additional opportunities (though it could well go the other direction, too).
All this to say, don’t exactly drop everything to go pick him up. Durbin’s still carrying a 1.3% Barrel rate and hitting .172. But his Whiff and Chase rates look great, he’s walking 10% of the time, and his K-rate is under 15%—so the other numbers will get some natural helium over time. Remember, if you’re looking at a Statcast page, the top half (results) eventually begins to mirror the bottom half (approach), and Durbin’s current differentials between the two halves are as stark as anyone’s. He’s worth keeping an eye on at least.
Ballesteros gets the nod here not just for a series of monster games in which he’s hit .412 with a pair of homers. He’s featured because he might be seeing more playing time. Only DH-eligible in most leagues, Cubs management has stated that Moisés will be getting more opportunities to work behind the plate as a catcher. He’s appeared there just twice all season, but if he catches a couple of games per week, he should be an official fantasy backstop in the next month or so.
Flexing a .298/.474/.868 slash line in 2025 in (very) limited action, Ballesteros now has five homers in 62 AB’s in 2026, and his metrics show this is no fluke. He’s barreling at 13.7%, hitting the ball an average of 92 mph, and swinging the bat at 73.8 mph (with just a 17.4% K-rate). These are elite numbers. While his .387 batting average will surely regress, he could be a plus-average, plus-power hitter for a long time. He might not yet be playing every day yet, but it looks like the Cubs are trying to work him in wherever they can.
Tork’s been getting a lot of headlines for hitting five homers in as many games last week, but it’s the 15.9% walk rate that should have points league players take notice. Torkelson has quietly been improving upon an already decent Chase rate season by season, and now boasts a 97th percentile ranking in the category. His expected SLG is almost sixty points higher than his actual number, and his Whiff rate is significantly better than his K-rate, so there’s room for improvement here even after the recent fireworks.
Pegged to seventh in the lineup for a spell, Tork’s also risen in the batting order, batting fifth of late. Given how some of the other Tigers are struggling, there’s no reason he can’t at some point reclaim a cleanup-hitter role, where he spent much of 2025. And while he hits a bunch of homers (31 last season), he also belts a lot of doubles and could reach 60 XBH’s overall.
A deeper league name to mention, Church was dismissed as a decent contact hitter with very little power until this season. But in just 76 ABs this year, he’s mashed five homers and is vying for a starter’s role over Victor Scott. Church can run as well, swiping three bags and flashing a 90th-percentile sprint speed. This might be a ride-the-hot-hand play as his Walk rate doesn’t impress (4.8%) and he could eventually lose playing time with the return of Lars Nootbaar, but the Cardinals seem impressed with Church and are giving him chances.
Griffin’s a lanky lefty who throws a 91 mph fastball and last pitched in the Majors in 2022. So why is he finding so much early success? After spending three seasons in Japan, Griffin polished his repertoire and added a sweeper. He became an All-Star for the Yomiuri Giants (Ohtani’s old team) and finished his 2025 in the NPB with a 1.62 ERA and a .91 WHIP. It looks like the adjustments he made are translating, as he threw seven scoreless innings against the White Sox with a career high (in the US, at least) in strikeouts with eight.
Griffin has made it to the sixth inning in each of his last four starts and is finding ways to make hitters chase even with the depressed velocity (he polished a splitter in Japan as well). The Nationals may have found a gem.
Fallers
Smith was looking like a post-hype sleeper the first few weeks of the season, showing great pop and stealing four bases. Alas, he’s fallen to earth and is just 1-for-17 this week with a .057 SLG. He’s still playing mostly every day, but is starting to drop in the batting order (he hit eighth in the lineup yesterday for just the second time).
Smith has elite bat speed (98th percentile) and barrels the ball when he makes contact, but carries a far-too-high Whiff rate and K-rate—think Jordan Walker last year. Smith will eventually become a decent player, but a .218 Batting Average with protracted slumps won’t cut it in points.
Smith has now played in 30 total games this season. Here’s how the first fifteen break down versus the last:
If you happen to own Merrill Kelly, you know what I’m about to say. After three starts, things don’t look good. Now 37 and coming off a season where he threw 184 innings, Kelly started the season on the IL with an intercostal issue. Unfortunately, whether the injury is still lingering or age is catching up with him, he just isn’t getting the ball past hitters. And the metrics are an eyesore: a first-percentile expected ERA (14.71!!!), a first-percentile barrel rate (22.6%!!), a fifth-percentile K-rate (12.2%), and a seventh-percentile Walk rate (16.2%).
I don’t need to tell you that walking more hitters than you strike out is not a formula for success. Maybe Kelly can shake off the rust and find his groove again, but I wouldn’t bank on it. It seems like new young arms are getting called up every day. You’re better off streaming those than sticking with this.
